小家电如何开展经销商:明年楼市进入调控关键期 防反弹将是重点

2011年12月21日 08:49:14
来源： 上海证券报
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【字号：大中小】【打印】

——专访住建部政策研究中心副主任王珏林
十年中国楼市，终于走向一个拐点。
2011年我国房地产市场遇到了强有力的挑战，在调控政策的压力下，房地产市场发生了明显变化，过热的市场已经开始降温，过高的房价出现了缓涨，地王现象基本消失。中央经济工作会议提出，要坚持房地产调控政策不动摇，促进房价合理回归，加快普通商品住房建设，扩大有效供给，促进房地产市场健康发展。要推进营业税改征增值税和房产税改革试点。
如何解读中央经济工作会议对房地产市场的定调？如何看待2011年房地产市场和调控政策取得的效果？又如何把握2012年房地产市场调控政策走势？面对一连串的问题，上海证券报专访了住建部政策研究中心副主任王珏林。
相比之下
今年是个不错年头
记者：在严厉的调控政策下，全国房价降声一片，成交量更是大幅下滑，您如何看待今年的市场调整？
王珏林：2011年1—11月，全国商品房销售面积达到8.959亿平方米；房地产开发投资55483亿元，同比增长29.9%；房价各地差异不同，变化较大，一线城市处于滞涨微降态势，二、三线城市还在上涨，但涨幅趋缓；土地销售量和价格下降的比较明显。
这些数据与历史数据相比较，前11个月商品房的销售量已经超过了2007年商品房销售量7.62亿平方米和2008年商品房销售量6.21亿平方米的水平，接近2009年商品房销售9.37亿平方米的水平。还有一个月的时间，很可能达到或超过2009年的商品房销售水平。2009年是我国房地产市场非常热、非常好的一年，尤其是下半年，很多城市不断出现地王。
所以说，2011年与历年相比较，对楼市来说还应当算是一个不错的年头。从2011年1—11月份房地产开发同比增长29.9%的投资规模来看，这里面虽然有增加保障性住房建设数量的因素，但与历年相比，增加比例还是比较高的，远远超出了2005年到2010年房地产开发平均投资同比增长23.67%的水平。这也说明虽处在调控政策的高压下，房地产市场投资的信心仍然存在。
关于房价，2011年1—11月份全国商品房的销售价格还是保持上升势头，稳中有降的都是一线城市，如北京、上海、深圳、广州等普遍出现了量价齐降的现象，虽然降幅不大，但折射出一种趋势，也释放出一个信号，高幅度增长的房价已经开始逐渐远去。
高房价得以遏制的主要原因，是国家实行了强有力的调控政策。这次调控概括为三点：针对性强、力度大、上下行动一致，效果好过以往。前两年住房价格高位膨胀，是由于房地产市场发展过快，国家投资过快、规模过大，城乡居民消费过于集中造成的；还有就是由于住房供应结构不合理、消费结构不合理造成的。限贷控制了房地产投资规模和开发速度，限购挤出了投资性购房消费，缓解了市场供需矛盾。
总的讲，2011年是我国房地产市场发展比较平稳的一年，与前两年比较虽然有所起伏，但已经开始向健康稳定的方向发展。
楼市若反弹
整体经济将受影响
记者：中央政府对房地产已经有多次调控，但只有此轮调控取得明显成效，特别是“限购令”的影响非同一般，对此您如何看？
王珏林：国务院在今年1月份针对房地产市场出台了“国八条”，要求“直辖市、省会城市、计划单列市和房价涨幅较快的城市都要采取限购措施”。
限购的目的，是为了缓解住房市场上的求大于供的矛盾，减少投资性购房所占比例，为刚性住房需求提供更多的房源。限购政策属于行政管理措施，在市场不发达或者不成熟的阶段，通过强化行政管理，稳定市场发展，这样会保证市场健康和稳定。当市场发展到一定的程度或发展得比较成熟，采取行政手段管理市场是不会起到什么作用的。现阶段限购措施能够起到一定作用，也就说明我国房地产市场发展处于初级阶段，市场还不成熟。
限购政策对房地产市场的影响还是很大的，因为它采取的是排除办法，也就是将一部分购房消费者排除在市场之外，虽然这是阶段性管理措施，但毕竟影响到了卖方的利益。由于我国房地产市场的求大于供的矛盾特别突出，采取限购措施能够起到缓解市场供需矛盾的作用，但不会影响市场发展，因为它仅仅起到缓解矛盾作用，还不能说市场供求关系达到了平衡。
记者：2012年是实施“十二五”规划的第二年，也是房地产市场调控的关键一年，中央经济工作会议已经提出要坚持房地产调控。对于未来的政策调控，您怎么看？
王珏林：从2005年开始，国家就开始对房地产市场进行调控，出台了若干项政策，想了许多办法，到今年才初步取得成效，可见今天的成果的确来之不易，要巩固调控成果，需要政策持续性和稳定性。
我国房地产市场调控政策正处现在时，还没有到达终点，不会停止，只能前行。这是基于三点看法：首先，我国经济继续保持较快速度发展，为房地产市场调控留得了时间和空间；二是我国通货膨胀的压力还很大，物价指数还在高位运行，住房也属于其中的一个分子；三是全国的房地产市场发展情况并不是太坏，基本上能保持在较好的水平。
我认为，2012年防市场过热、防房价返弹仍会成为未来的重点。前些年几次调控已经验证，一旦调控政策放松，房价就会迅速返弹，它带来的损失不仅仅是在房地产市场，伤害的也不仅仅是消费者，影响的是经济发展和社会稳定。现在对房地产市场调控，国家已经付出了很大成本，不能使这些成本浪费，要达到应当达到的效果。一旦市场过热，房价涨幅过快，就会破坏经济秩序、市场秩序和分配关系，后果是非常严重的，无法挽救的。所以，防市场过热、防房价返弹仍会成为未来的重点。
调控会持续
不会加重、加码
记者：调控之下，很多业内人士对这个行业已经快失去信心，您是怎么看2012年房地产市场发展趋势的？
王珏林：我对2012年我国的房地产市场还是满怀信心的，理由有三。一是，调控政策会持续，不会加重、加码；二是房价涨幅变化不会太明显，个别楼盘或区域变化会较大；三是观望氛围会减弱，销售量会有所提升。
再者，2012年，融资难、贷款难会成为影响房地产市场发展的重要因素。
可以说，我国的房地产开发企业是银行培育长大或壮大的，前几年银行追着企业放贷，今年是企业追着银行要贷都要不来，大型房地产企业融资路子多些，中小企业在融资方面遇到的困难更大，再加上房屋销售不畅，融资已经成为制约房地产开发企业发展的最大困难。买房贷款也遇到了困难，有些银行抬高了贷款入门条件，有些银行延长了贷款时间，这样不仅制约了投资性购房需求，同时也影响了刚性购房需求。融资难、贷款难会成为影响房地产市场发展的重要因素，要使房地产市场保持稳定，居民贷款购房方面需要得到金融部门的支持。(记者 于祥明)
Next year the property market access control the critical period the rebound is the key
December 21, 2011 08:49:14
Source:Shanghai stock certificate report
Xinhua micro bo

The text:biginsmall】 【print】

--interviews with live JianBu WangJueLin, deputy director of the policy research center
Ten years China property market, and finally to a turning point.
In 2011, China's real estate market met strong challenge, in under the pressure of adjustment and control policies, the real estate market changed obviously change, overheating market has begun to drop in temperature, high house prices appeared slow rise, royal phenomenon almost disappear.The central economic work conference to insist on real estate control policies don't shake, promote house prices reasonable regression, speed up the common commodity housing construction, expand the effective supply and promote the healthy development of the real estate market.To promote the business tax change VAT and housing property tax reform pilot.
How to interpret the central economic work conference on real estate market pitch?How to look at 2011 years the real estate market and the control policy effect obtained?And how to hold 2012 real estate market regulation policy trend?Facing a series of questions, Shanghai stock certificate report live interview with JianBu WangJueLin, deputy director of the policy research center.
compared
This is a good year
Reporter: in severe control policy, national house prices drop a sound, volume is the decline, how do you think this year's market adjusted?
WangJueLin: 2011-1 November, the national commodity house sales area 895.9 million square meters;Real estate development investment is 5.5483 trillion yuan RMB, a 29.9% growth year;All prices are different, large variation, a city in WeiJiang sluggish situation, two, three city also rose, but slow rise;Land sales and prices falling more apparent.
These data and the historical data comparison, the first 11 months of sales of commercial housing more than 2007 commodity house of 762 million square meters and 2008 sales of commercial housing sales 621 million square meters of level, close to 2009 sales of commercial property 937 million square meters of level.And a month of time, are likely to hit or more than 2009 years of commodity house sales level.2009 is the real estate market in China is very hot, very good year, especially in the second half, many cities you appear constantly.
So, in 2011, compared with the past, it shall also be to market a good year.From 1-November real estate development year-on-year growth of 29.9% investment scale, inside this although there are increasing the number of affordable housing construction factors, but compared with the calendar year, increase the proportion or higher, which is more than 2005 in 2010 to in real estate development average investment year-on-year growth of 23.67% level.It also shows that although in adjustment and control policies under high pressure, the real estate market investment confidence still exists.
About house prices, 2011 1-November sales price of the commodity house or keep rising, stability and fall is a line cities, such as Beijing, Shanghai, shenzhen, guangzhou and other common appeared together the volume and price drop phenomenon, although the drop is not big, but reflects a trend, and also release a signal, the high rate of growth property prices have started to gradually went away.
That high prices to curb, the main reason is the state adopt powerful control policies.The regulation summarized into three points: targeted and intensity big, up and down that correspond to the action, the effect better than ever.Two years before the housing prices high inflation, is due to the real estate market development too fast, national investment too fast and large, urban and rural residents are too centralized consumption caused;And was that the housing supply structure is unreasonable, consumption structure is not reasonable cause.Limit credit control the real estate investment scale and development speed, 限购 investment into the consumer buys a house, easing the market, the contradiction between supply and demand.
General speaking, 2011 is the real estate market development in our country stable for a year, and before two years more may be ups and downs, but has begun to the direction of the healthy and stable development.
If the market rally
The overall economy will be affected
Reporter: the central government to the real estate has many regulation, but only this round of regulating has obvious effect, especially "限购 to the influence of the" extraordinary, how do you see?
WangJueLin: the state council in January for the real estate market issued a "kingdom of article 8" and called for "municipalities directly under the central government, provincial capital city, the state plan and house prices has been growing cities will take 限购 measures".
The purpose of the 限购, is to ease the housing market demand exceeds supply contradiction, reduce the proportion of the investment buys a house, for the rigid housing needs to provide more homes.限购 policy belongs to administrative management measures, in the market not developed or not mature stage, by strengthening the administrative management, stabilize the market development, this will ensure that the market healthy and stable.When the market development to a certain extent or development more mature, take administrative means management market is not what role.At present 限购 measures can play a role, that showed China's real estate market development in the primary stage, the market is not mature.
限购 policy on the influence of the real estate market is very big still, because it is taken to rule out, also will be part of the consumer buys a house is out of the markets, though, is the stage management measures, but after all affected the seller's interests.Because China's real estate market demand exceeds supply special outstanding contradictions, take 限购 measures can rise to alleviate the role of market, the contradiction between supply and demand, but will not affect the market development, because it only plays alleviates the contradiction effect, still can't say to the relation between market supply and demand balance.
Reporter: 2012 is implementation "1025" planning the next year, also is the key to the real estate market regulation, the central economic work conference has put forward to want to real estate regulation.For future policy regulation, what do you see?
WangJueLin: from 2005 to, the state began to real estate market regulation, come on stage with several policy, want to the many ways, to this year just preliminary achievements have been made, the results of the visible today really hard-won, to consolidate control results, need policy continuity and stability.
China's real estate market adjustment and control policies with the present, has not reached the destination, will not stop, can go on.This is based on three views: first of all, our country economy kept fast speed development of the real estate market regulation leave got time and space;2 it is Chinese inflation pressure is very big still, price index is high in operation, housing also belong to one of the molecules;Three of the real estate market development and is not too bad, basically can keep in good level.
I think, in 2012 the overheating market bounce back, and house prices are still will be the focus of future.Before some year several regulation have tested, once the control policy relax, house prices will bounce back quickly, it brings loss is not only in the real estate market, the damage is not just consumers also impact on the economic development and social stability.Now on the real estate market regulation, the country has paid a high cost, can't make these costs, and to achieve the effect of should meet.Once the market overheating, house prices rose too quickly, it will destroy the economic order, market order and distribution relationship, the result is very serious, cannot save.So, prevent overheating market, the bounce back home prices are still will be the focus of future.
Regulation will continue
Won't grow, pyramid
Reporter: under control, the personage inside a lot to this industry has quickly lost faith, how do you see the real estate market development trend in 2012?
WangJueLin: I to 2012 in China real estate market or with confidence, reason has three.One is, the control policy will continue, won't grow, pyramid;2 it is housing price change will not too obvious, individual buildings or areas will change is bigger;Three is wait-and-see atmosphere will abate, sales to improve.
Furthermore, in 2012, financing and loans will be difficult to influence the real estate market development of important factor.
Can say, China's real estate development enterprise is a bank or and expansion of the foster grew up, before a few years the bank ran after the enterprise lending, this year is the enterprise ran after the bank loans to all or, large real estate enterprise financing way more, small and medium-sized enterprises have difficulties in financing more big, plus housing sales not free, financing has become a real estate development enterprise development restriction of the biggest difficulties.Mortgage loan also met with difficulties, some Banks raise the introductory loan conditions, some bank loans extended the time, it is not only restricted the purchase of the investment demand, but also affects the rigid pent-up demand.Financing, loans difficult will become an important influence factors of the development of real estate market, to make the real estate market stability, residents in a loan to buy houses need to get the support of the financial sector.(reporter YuXiangMing)