解读中央经济工作会议系列之四

人民财评：“稳中求进”就要及时化解金融风险

郭田勇

2011年12月20日08:04    来源：人民网-财经频道     手机看新闻

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　　目前，国际政治经济环境尚面临一定的不确定性，国内经济运行总体态势平稳。但是，随着国际金融风险的传导以及国内宏观调控的持续推进，我国金融体系的风险也在不断积累。

　　在此形势下，必须有效防范和及时化解潜在金融风险，才能维护金融体系的持续健康发展，为“稳中求进”的经济总基调保驾护航。当前金融系统集聚的风险突出表现在地方金融风险和民间金融风险两方面。

　　地方金融风险

　　2008 年以来，地方政府融资平台在加强基础设施建设和应对国际金融危机中发挥了积极的作用，但平台数量增长过快，贷款规模迅速扩张，相关运营问题逐步显现，其潜在风险引起社会的广泛关注。今年的中央经济工作会议明确指出，要“严格财政收支管理、加强地方政府债务管理”，以防范地方政府债务风险。

　　中国人民银行对地方政府融资平台贷款情况的专项调查指出，截至2010年年末，全国共有地方政府融资平台1万余家，较2008年年末增长25%以上，其中，国有商业银行和政策性银行成为贷款的供给主力。而审计署对地方政府性债务的审计报告显示，融资平台公司2010年底的政府性债务余额为4.97万亿元，占全国地方政府性债务余额的46.38%，其中政府负有偿还责任、担保责任和可能承担一定救助责任的债务分别占63.12%、16.38%、20.50%。规模巨大的融资平台债务带来了巨大的地方财政风险，还通过连锁效应给作为债权人的银行带来了巨大的信用风险，最后有可能影响到整个金融体系乃至整体经济的稳定运行。

　　化解地方政府融资平台风险不可能一蹴而就，而是要经历一个长期、渐进的过程。从银行业的角度来讲，一方面要充分提升自身的风险管理水平，有效发挥内控机制的作用，对地方融资平台的风险实施动态管理，对信贷项目进行定期审查，以配合中央政府对融资平台资金流向的实时跟踪和管理；另一方面要加强自身的风险监督能力，审慎地对待融资平台风险，严格按照银行信贷业务流程进行客观评估，严格按照监管要求细化监管标准，同时加强贷后管理，及时化解风险。另外，在清理地方政府融资平台的过程中，一定要实行新老划断。在长期消化的过程中，以时间换空间，随着中国未来经济的增长，地方政府税源的稳定扩大，清理问题也将随之化解。

　　同时，在明年继续实施稳健货币政策的压力下，银行在发放新增贷款时并不意味着要采取“一刀切”式的停贷。对具有商业前景和稳定收益的项目，可以引入民间资本，进行资产证券化等，或者通过地方融资平台和民间资本双重结合的方式发挥杠杆作用。如此引入竞争机制，不仅更加契合市场化要求，还能提高整体经济的运行效率，同时也为政府的退出机制提供了渠道。而对于商业化程度较低的公益性项目等，可以借鉴国外发行市政债的经验，在考虑地方政府财政能力的情况下发行地方债。

　　民间金融风险

　　近年来我国民间金融发展迅速，成为金融创新的主要源泉，但其巨大的风险也对金融稳定造成了一定影响。据中国人民银行统计，2011年前三季度我国人民币存款增加8.11万亿元，同比少增2.09万亿元。与此同时，前三季度社会融资规模增加9.80万亿元，也就是说，银行体系的存款大量流失，民间金融体系已经占据社会融资规模的相当比例。大量的资金持续注入高风险投资领域，不仅会助长资产泡沫，也将使整个金融体系积聚大量风险。

　　民间金融是正规金融的必要补充，但是，其游离于正规金融之外，具有交易隐蔽、风险难测等问题，极易滋生违法行为。以民间借贷为例，过低的存款利率与过高的借贷回报吸引了庞大的民间资本，并呈现极度蔓延之势。从江浙沿海到内陆地区，从制造业延伸至商贸流通进而普通家庭，甚至于部分银行也将信贷资源暗渡陈仓从中图利，境外热钱更是觊觎已久。日益广泛的参与主体，不断扩张的地域范围，快速膨胀的资金规模，使我国民间金融市场错综复杂、险象环生。

　　对于民间金融，要因时、因事而异，实施差别化政策，兼顾市场需求和潜在风险的平衡，鼓励发展满足实体经济需求的金融工具创新和服务创新。我国的民间金融有其出现的历史必然，唯有体制的深化改革才是治本之策，包括填补监管空白、完善政策法规、降低金融机构准入门槛，逐步将金融领域对民间资本开放，以及有效推进利率市场化改革等，借此可以进一步拓宽社会融资渠道，建立多元化融资体系，推动民间金融规范化、阳光化发展。（作者系中央财经大学中国银行业研究中心主任）

Reading central economic work conference series of four

People's wealth review: "WenZhongQiuJin" in time to defuse financial risks

Guo TianYong

On December 20, 2011 08:04    Source:PRC-financial channel     Cell phone watch the news

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At present, the international politicseconomicThe environment is still faced with a certain uncertainty, the domestic economy generally kept running smoothly.But, with the international financial risk conduction and domestic macroeconomic regulation and control of promoting continuously, our financial system in the accumulation of risk.

In this situation, we must effectively guard against and defuse financial risks in potential, to maintain the sustainable development of the financial system, "WenZhongQiuJin" economic total fundamental key to escort.The current financial system risk the agglomeration of outstanding performance in the local financial risk and folk financial risks two aspects.

　　Local financial risk

Since 2008, the local government financing platform in, to strengthen the construction of infrastructure and to deal with the international financial crisis play a positive role, but platform quantity growth too fast, the size of the loan is rapid and outspread, related operation problem gradually appear, the potential risk cause extensive attention of the whole society.This year the central economic work conference explicitly pointed out that, to "strict financial revenue and expenditure management, strengthens the local governmentdebtService management ", in order to guard against the risk of local government debt.

The Chinese peoplebankThe local government financing platform of the special loan survey that, by the end of 2010, China had local government financing platform more than 10000, is at the end of 2008 growth above 25%, among them, the state-owned commercial Banks and policy Banks become the main supply loan.And the local government of the debtAudit reportDisplay, financing platform company at the end of 2010 is government debt balance is 4.97 trillion yuan, accounting for the local government debt balance of 46.38%, with the government have to repay the responsibility, the security liability and may undertake responsibility of debt relief accounted for 63.12%, 16.38% and 20.50%.Big debt financing platform with great local financial risks, and also through the chain effect to the bank as a creditor brought huge credit risk, the last may affect the whole financial system and the stable operation of the overall economy.

Dissolve the local government financing platform risk may not overnight, but to experience a long-term, the gradual process.From the perspective of the banking industry, on the one hand, fully promote their own risk management level, effectively play the role of internal control mechanism, where the risk of financing platform to implement the dynamic management, project of credit to regularly review, in support of the central government on financing platform flow of capital real-time tracking and management;On the other hand we should strengthen their own risk supervision and ability, prudent to financing platform risk, in strict accordance with the bank credit business process of objective evaluation, in strict accordance with the regulatory requirements detailed regulatory standards, while strengthening credit management, risks in time.In addition, in the cleaning up local government financing platform in the process, must implement new old row is broken.In the long term the process of digestion, with time in space, with China's future economic growth, the local government stable source of revenue, expand, clean up the problem also will then dissolve.

At the same time, in the next year, continue to implement robust under the pressure of monetary policy, the bank to issue new loan does not mean that we take "one size fits all" type of TingDai.To have business prospects and stable income project, may introduce the folk capital, asset securitization, and other, or by local financing platform and private capital of the combination of the double way play leverage.So introducing competition mechanism, not only more fit market requirement, can still improve overall economic efficiency, but also for the government's exit mechanism provides channels.And for commercial with low levels of public welfare projects that will draw lessons from foreign municipal debt issuance of experience, consider the local government to the financial capacity of the case issue local debt.

　　Folk financial risk

In recent years, our country folk financial development rapidly and become the main source of financial innovation, but the huge risk also on the financial stability caused a certain effect.According to the people's bank of China statistics, 2011 years ago in China in the third quarterRMBDeposits of up to $8.11 trillion, an increase of 2.09 trillion yuan less.At the same time, in the first three social financing scale of up to $9.8 trillion, that is, the banking deposits loss, folk financial system have dominated society of financing scale quite proportion.A large amount of money continue into the high riskinvestmentField, not only will encourage asset bubble, also will make the whole financial system build up large risk.

Private finance is the formal financial necessary complement, however, its free from outside the formal financial, has the transaction, risk are concealed, extremely easy be illegal behavior.With folk lending, for example, low interest rates and high lending attracted huge returns the folk capital, and present the trend of the spread of extreme.From the jiangsu and zhejiang coast to inland areas, from manufacturing extends to the circulation and ordinary families, even part of the bank will also credit resources from stealingfigureAnd, outside the hot money is chasing already for a long time.Day by day the widespread participation main body, and constantly expand the geographic scope of, the rapid expansion of the scale of capital, make our country folk financial market and complexity of those dangers.

For private finance, will, because things when different, implement differentiation policy, give consideration to the market demand and potential risks of balance, encourage the development of the real economy needs to meet financial tool innovation and service innovation.China's private finance has its history of appear inevitable, deepen the reform of the system of the only is unchangeable, including fill blank, perfect the supervision policies and regulations, and reduce the financial institutions admittance threshold, and gradually will financial field opening on private capital, and effectively promote market-oriented interest rate reform, etc., to broaden the financing channels can be further society, establish a diversified financing system, promote the standardization, the sunshine of private financial development.(the author is the central university of finance and economics, director of the China banking research center)