do overs:中美之间的贸易摩擦

[3240]　(2011-11-28)
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背景
最近中国与美国的贸易摩擦明显增多，美国发起了针对中国产品的一些列的“反倾销”和“反补贴”调查，采取严格的措施限制中国向美国的出口。这些产品包括：电视，礼物装和包装丝带，汽车轮胎，无缝钢管，光伏产品等等产品。欧盟，阿根廷等国紧随美国之后对中国的这些部分产品采取惩罚措施限制中国的出口。
中国在反对这些贸易制裁措施时，却显得非常不力，在WTO上告无门，经常处于一个被动挨打的地位。这究竟是什么机制和原因造成的这样一个局面？
中美之间的贸易协定
要理解造成现在针对中国的贸易战烽烟四起的原因，我们必须要分析中美之间的贸易协定。1999年11月15日中美之间签署了关于中国WTO加入的协议；中国方面认为内容比较敏感，一直没有公布该协定。但是我们可以从美方于1999年11月17日公布的《美中双边WTO协议摘要》里面看到美国对中国“双反“调查的标准和措施，以及采取”特殊保护“措施保护美国国内产业的内容。摘其要点，翻译如下：
（一）关于反倾销
“美国和中国同意美国在未来的反倾销案件中维持原有的反倾销方法（把中国看作一个非市场经济体），这样的条款在中国加入WTO后15年有效。”
“此外，我们在对中国采取对抗措施，识别和测量补贴受益的存在时，我们能够考虑中国经济的特殊特征。”
（二）关于’特殊保护’措施
“双方同意采取措施保证美国国内企业和工人必须有强烈的保护措施来对抗进口的急剧增加。”
“这个'特殊保护’机制，超越了WTO’特殊保护’条款内容，而不同于传统的特殊保护措施,。它允许美国可以单独的针对中国的进口，而不是全世界的进口，在本国产业受到实质伤害的时候，采取包括进口限制等保护措施。”
“此外，美国可以针对中国多个案件，单方面采取不同于WTO'特殊保护’规定的（美国国内）法律标准。这样的条款在中国加入WTO后12年有效。”
很显然，美国对中国的进口采取的贸易制裁措施是按照美国的国内贸易法律，而不是按照WTO的规定来进行的，所以中国到WTO上告无门。
此外，由于WTO规定中的最惠国条款，当美国开始对中国的某一产品采取“双反”或者'特保’措施时，其它成员国可以跟进采取措施，而中国也无法对其它国家的贸易措施申诉到WTO。
因为中美之间关于'双反’和'特保’措施分别在中国加入WTO后的15年和12年有效。这就意味着，在未来5年内，美国对中国出口产品的贸易制裁可能不会减少，或者还有可能不断增加，从而在世界上形成一个针对对中国贸易出口产品制裁的一个高潮。中国的出口企业必须做好思想准备。
这就是中国加入WTO的代价。但是，相对于中国整个经济融入世界市场获得的巨大收益而言，这点代价是值得的。
中国企业的应对措施
面对着一个针对中国出口产品不断采取贸易制裁措施的时代，中国企业怎样才能未雨绸缪，采取措施减低被制裁的风险呢？
日本的汽车产业对美国出口的成功案例就值得中国借鉴。为了避免受到美国的贸易制裁，日本汽车产业形成了强大的出口联盟，对美国的汽车出口采取'自肃’措施：包括控制对美出口数量，提高在美汽车的售价，并在美国设立工厂等措施。这样的措施确实保证了日本汽车产业对美国出口的稳步增长，却没有受到美国强烈的贸易制裁。
中国的相关行业的出口要组织起来，对美国的出口不要竞相压价，同时要注意控制出口数量的过快增长。否则，一旦发生贸易战，中国企业根本无还手之力。
德国哥廷根大学 于晓华 Trade friction between China and the United States
[3240]　(2011-11-28)
background
China and the United States recently trade friction significantly increased, the United States launched for Chinese products a list of "anti-dumping and countervailing investigation, take strict measures to limit the export of China to the United States.These products include: TV, gift pack and packing ribbons, car tires, seamless steel tube, photovoltaic products and so on products.The European Union, Argentina and other countries to follow America to China after the part of the product to take measures to limit the punishment of China's export.
China in opposition to the trade sanctions measures, they appear very poor, in the WTO appealed unto slam shut, often in a passive position.This is what is mechanism and causes such a situation?
The trade agreement between China and the United States
To understand the cause for China trade war now sanguo dynasty reasons, we have to analysis the trade agreement between China and the United States.November 15, 1999 between China and the United States signed on China to join WTO agreement;China think content are quite sensitive, has not announced the agreement.But we can from the United States in 1999 November 17, by the u.s.-china bilateral the WTO agreement the "inside to see the United States of China's" double reverse "survey of standard and measures, and take" special "protection measures to protect the United States the content of the domestic industry.Pick the key points, translation is as follows:
(a) on anti-dumping
"The United States and China have agreed to the United States in the future in anti-dumping cases maintain original anti-dumping method (sees China as a non-market economy), such terms in China's accession to the WTO fifteen years effective."
"In addition, we in the Chinese to take measures to fight against, recognition and measurement subsidies for the benefits of the exists, we can consider the special features of China's economy."
(2) about 'special protection measures "
"The two sides agreed to take measures to ensure that the domestic enterprise and worker must have strong protection measures against the sharp increase in imports."
"The 'special protection' mechanism, beyond the WTO 'special protection' terms the content, but different from the traditional special protective measures. It allows the United States, can separate for Chinese imports, rather than the world imports, in industrial essence is hurt when the take including import restrictions and protection measures."
"In addition, the United States can more than in China, unilateral take different cases in WTO 'special protection regulations" (domestic) legal standards. Such a clause in the 12 years after China's entry into the WTO is effective ".
Obviously, the United States of Chinese imports to take trade sanctions is according to the American domestic trade law, not by the provisions of the WTO, so China to WTO appealed unto impossible position.
In addition, because of the WTO provisions most-favoured-nation clause, when the United States began to China's a product to adopt a "double reverse" or "special security measures", other member states can follow up take measures, China is not the other countries trade measures appeal to the WTO.
Because of the "double between China and the United States" and "special security measures" respectively in China's accession to the WTO's 15 years and 12 years effective.This means that, in the next five years, the United States on China's export products trade sanctions may not reduce, or perhaps increase constantly, and thus formed in the world for China trade sanctions to export products of a high tide.China's export enterprise must be well prepared.
This is the price of China's accession to the WTO.But, the whole economy than China into the world market for huge gains is concerned, this price is worth it.
China enterprise measures
Facing a Chinese export products constantly take in the era of trade sanctions measures, China enterprise how to prepare for a rainy day, take measures to reduce the risk of sanctions were?
Japan's auto industry to the export of the successful cases is worth reference for China.In order to avoid the United States by the trade sanctions, Japanese auto industry has formed strong export federation, for the United States export take self-organized Su 'measures: including control exports to the quantity, improving the price in the car, and set up a factory in the United States and other measures.Such measures does ensure that Japan automobile industry the steady growth in exports to the United States, but not the United States by the strong trade sanctions.
China's export of the relevant industries need to organize, exports to the United States don't compete to demand, at the same time, attention should be paid to control the rapid increase of the quantity.Otherwise, once produce a trade war, China enterprise no have the strength.
He YuXiaoHua German university The joint morning post nets"
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