中财网赌博输了100多万想死:The Nobel prize in economics诺贝尔经济学奖（2011）
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The Nobel prize in economics
诺贝尔经济学奖
How to know what causes what
怎么知道因果？
Oct 10th 2011, 19:30 by H.G. | LONDON
THE Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel has been awarded to Thomas J. Sargent of New York University and Christopher A. Sims of Princeton University. Predictably, this blog proved useless at predicting the winner. The Academy of Sciences provides useful backgrounders on the prize, technical and non-technical. These interviews are also good on Mr Sargent as is this one on Mr Sims.
瑞典国家银行纪念阿尔弗雷德·诺贝尔经济学奖被颁于纽约大学的托马斯·萨金特和普林思顿大学的克里斯托弗·西姆斯。和预期的一样，这份博客在预测获奖者上彻底押错了。瑞典科学院提供了非常有用的背景说明，技术性和非技术性的都有。点击此处阅读对萨金特先生的专访，此外这篇是同样精彩的对西姆斯先生的采访。
Both laureates spent the main portion of their careers together at the University of Minnesota—one of the bastions of the "freshwater" school of macroeconomics—in the 1970s and 1980s (though they only once co-authored a paper together). The prize is awarded "for their empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy". It's difficult to imagine what might be more important.
两位获奖人的大部份研究生涯是20世纪70年代和80年代在明尼苏达大学一起度过的（虽然他们共同执笔的论文只有一篇）。明尼苏达大学是宏观经济学“淡水”学派[注1]的主要阵地之一。本次诺贝尔奖是授予他们在"对于宏观经济因果的实证研究"方面做出的贡献。很难想象还有什么比这项成果更重要。
Robert Lucas, a previous Nobel laureate, showed how incorporating expectations into macroeconomic models muddled the framework economists prior to the "rational expectations revolution" thought they saw so clearly. As (in an excellent summary) Alex Tabarrok puts it, their work separately grappled with different ways of addressing the Lucas Critique of 1976:
前诺贝尔得奖者罗伯特·卢卡斯指出将预期引入宏观经济学模型使得“理性预期革命”[注2]前的那些经济学家自认清晰的框架一下变得浑浊起来。正如Alex Tabarrok所形容的，他们的成果分别各自以不同方法解决了1976年的卢卡斯批判。
“Lucas looked at the large econometric models of the 1970s, models that contained hundreds of variables relating economic aggregates like income, consumption, unemployment and so forth. Lucas then asked whether these models could be used to predict the impact of new policies. One could certainly take the regression coefficients from these models and forecast but Lucas argued that such a method was invalid because the regression coefficients themselves would change with new policies.”
“卢卡斯分析了20世纪70年代的所有大型经济学模型。这些模型中含有上百个变量，将诸如收入，消费，失业等等的经济总合值联系起来。卢卡斯提出这些模型是否可以用来预测新政策的影响这一问题。当然你可以拿这些模型里的回归系数来做预测。但卢卡斯指出这样的办法是不行的，因为回归系数本身在引入新政策时就会改变。”
“If you wanted to understand the effects of a new policy you had to go deeper, you had to model the decision rules of individuals based on deep, invariant or 'structural' factors, factors such as how people value labor and leisure, that would not change as policy changed and you had to include in your macro model another deep factor, expectations.”
“如果你想要理解新政策的效果你必须挖得更深，你必须以深层的，不变或是'结构性'的因素来建立个人决策规则模型。这样的因素的一个例子就是人们对于工作和休息的价值评估，这些因素不会受政策改变而改变。而且你必须在你的宏观模型里加入另一个深层因素，预期。”
The 2011 laureates' work focuses on the implications of rational expectations for empirical and econometric work and on ways to uncover these structural parameters. Mr Sargent's enormous contributions to rational expectations econometrics were purely methodological and his methods are explicated in his three graduate textbooks: Macroeconomic Theory, Dynamic Macroeconomic Theory and Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, bibles of modern macroeconomics.
2011年获奖人的成果集中在理性预期对于实证和经济计量成果的影响，以及发现这些结构参数的方法。萨金特先生对于理性预期经济计量学的巨大贡献纯粹是在方法层面上的。他的三本研究生课本：《宏观经济论》，《动态宏观经济论》和《递归宏观经济论》清楚地阐述了他的方法。这三本著作被看成是宏观经济学的圣经。
However, Mr Sargent's association with the rational expectations revolution and its extension to the efficient markets hypothesis, much demonised during the crisis, is somewhat misunderstood. Much of his work has focused on agents learning within models and less-than-fully-rational expectations. Much of the criticism of rational expectations is integrated into this work. Learning involves two elements: firstly that agents (consumers or businesses) have incomplete knowledge of some parameters in the model, and secondly a specification of how agents learn about these parameters, based on the observations of evolving time series.
但是，萨金特先生和理性预期革命的联系，以及他将其拓展到在金融危机中被广泛妖魔化的有效市场假设[注3]，经常被人误解。他的成果大多集中在经济主体在模型限制下学习和不完全理性预期这些方面。对于理性预期的大多数批评也是和这些成果一体的。学习包含两个元素：首先主体（消费者或公司）对于模型的一些参数有不完全的了解，其次是细节的说明来决定主体怎么根据对变化的时间序列的观察来学习这些参数。
Chris Sims' work upset the existing paradigm by arguing that the existing models for looking at causal relationships in macroeconomics relied on "incredible" identification assumptions. This meant that interpretations of "what causes what" were necessarily flawed. There is a nice explanation of the problem that Mr Sims' work addresses in the technical backgrounder from the Nobel Committee.
克里斯·西姆斯的成果则推翻了原来的范例。他认为现有的分析宏观经济学中因果关系的模型依赖于“不可信”的识别假设。这意味着对于“什么引起什么”的解读一定是有问题的。以下是诺贝尔委员会提供的技术性背景资料中的一个很好的例子来说明这一成果。
“To appreciate the problem of identification, suppose we consider the coffee market and try to explain movements in the quantity and price of coffee. A traditional approach is to isolate a variable that is believed to solely influence either supply or demand. One such variable is weather. Bad weather may reduce the amount of coffee produced at all prices, i.e., it shifts the supply curve inward. If the demand curve for coffee is not affected, a change in the weather will lower the equilibrium quantity of coffee and raise its price. Variations in weather therefore allow us to trace out - to identify - the shape of the demand curve. However, is the assumption that weather does not influence the demand curve plausible? Even if people's taste for coffee does not depend directly on the weather, as Sims pointed out coffee buyers know that weather is variable and may stock up when adverse weather variations arise. Thus, expectations about weather (and other varying determinants of supply and/or demand) are likely to affect both supply and demand, in such a way that weather changes may not have the expected consequences.”
“为了理解识别问题，假设我们考虑咖啡市场来解释咖啡价格和数量的幅动。传统的方法是将一个被认为是只影响需求或供应的变量孤立出来。一个例子就是天气。坏天气降低所有价位的咖啡收成，也就是说它向内移动了供应曲线。如果咖啡的需求曲线不受影响，天气的变化就会降低咖啡的平衡产量并推高价格。因此，天气的变化使我们可以找出，也就是识别出需求曲线。但是，天气对于需求曲线没有影响这一假设是合理的吗？即使人们对于咖啡的品味不受天气影响，西姆斯指出咖啡购买者知道天气会变化就会在不利天气来到前囤积咖啡。因此，对于天气（和其它影响供应及/或需求的因素）的预期很可能同时影响需求和供应。这么一来天气的变化就可能不会导致预期的结果。”
He proposed a statistical tool, the vector autoregression (VAR), as a solution to this problem. As with Mr Sargent's work, VARs are now central to macroeconomics. This Nobel prize honours the ubiquity of their innovations.
他提出了一个统计工具，向量自回归（VAR），来解决这一问题。和萨金特先生的成果一样，VAR现在是宏观经济学的核心概念。诺贝尔奖是表彰他们创新成果的普遍适用性。
译者注
1 - “freshwater” school，70年代兴起的新派宏观经济学学派，提倡动态，定量，以在不缺定环境下的决策为基准来研究宏观经济。属于这一派的大学包括卡内基·梅隆大学，芝加哥大学，罗彻斯特大学和明尼苏达大学。这些大学都位于五大湖附近。称之为淡水学派。而与其相对的大多是美国东西海岸的大学，所以成为咸水学派。现在宏观经济学已没有这一分别，基本上已经互补长短了。
2 - 本文技术含量很大，因为我不是学经济的，只能掌握大意，欢迎指正。大概归纳"rational expectations revolution"的大意。即相对于当时别的思想，政府不可能以政策来绝对驱动经济，因为固定的政策一旦变得可预测，则会改变人们的期望，进而影响经济。他们的理论主要是研究怎么把这种期望也加入到模型里来寻求更好的经济政策。
3 - Efficient-market hypothesis 有效市场假设，认为市场是信息有效的，即市场价格已经反映了所有的可能信息，而且任何新信息出来都会立刻影响价格。这么一来，除非碰运气，你不可能通过分析信息来持续获得比市场平均更高的回报。这一学说被广泛批评过，尤其是2008年的金融危机中显示了次贷价格并没有真实反映其风险，成为该危机的导火索。有人甚至不惜说次贷危机完全是因为该假设引起的，因此文中提到该假设被妖魔化。
诺贝尔经济学奖
How to know what causes what
怎么知道因果？
Oct 10th 2011, 19:30 by H.G. | LONDON
THE Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel has been awarded to Thomas J. Sargent of New York University and Christopher A. Sims of Princeton University. Predictably, this blog proved useless at predicting the winner. The Academy of Sciences provides useful backgrounders on the prize, technical and non-technical. These interviews are also good on Mr Sargent as is this one on Mr Sims.
瑞典国家银行纪念阿尔弗雷德·诺贝尔经济学奖被颁于纽约大学的托马斯·萨金特和普林思顿大学的克里斯托弗·西姆斯。和预期的一样，这份博客在预测获奖者上彻底押错了。瑞典科学院提供了非常有用的背景说明，技术性和非技术性的都有。点击此处阅读对萨金特先生的专访，此外这篇是同样精彩的对西姆斯先生的采访。
Both laureates spent the main portion of their careers together at the University of Minnesota—one of the bastions of the "freshwater" school of macroeconomics—in the 1970s and 1980s (though they only once co-authored a paper together). The prize is awarded "for their empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy". It's difficult to imagine what might be more important.
两位获奖人的大部份研究生涯是20世纪70年代和80年代在明尼苏达大学一起度过的（虽然他们共同执笔的论文只有一篇）。明尼苏达大学是宏观经济学“淡水”学派[注1]的主要阵地之一。本次诺贝尔奖是授予他们在"对于宏观经济因果的实证研究"方面做出的贡献。很难想象还有什么比这项成果更重要。
Robert Lucas, a previous Nobel laureate, showed how incorporating expectations into macroeconomic models muddled the framework economists prior to the "rational expectations revolution" thought they saw so clearly. As (in an excellent summary) Alex Tabarrok puts it, their work separately grappled with different ways of addressing the Lucas Critique of 1976:
前诺贝尔得奖者罗伯特·卢卡斯指出将预期引入宏观经济学模型使得“理性预期革命”[注2]前的那些经济学家自认清晰的框架一下变得浑浊起来。正如Alex Tabarrok所形容的，他们的成果分别各自以不同方法解决了1976年的卢卡斯批判。
“Lucas looked at the large econometric models of the 1970s, models that contained hundreds of variables relating economic aggregates like income, consumption, unemployment and so forth. Lucas then asked whether these models could be used to predict the impact of new policies. One could certainly take the regression coefficients from these models and forecast but Lucas argued that such a method was invalid because the regression coefficients themselves would change with new policies.”
“卢卡斯分析了20世纪70年代的所有大型经济学模型。这些模型中含有上百个变量，将诸如收入，消费，失业等等的经济总合值联系起来。卢卡斯提出这些模型是否可以用来预测新政策的影响这一问题。当然你可以拿这些模型里的回归系数来做预测。但卢卡斯指出这样的办法是不行的，因为回归系数本身在引入新政策时就会改变。”
“If you wanted to understand the effects of a new policy you had to go deeper, you had to model the decision rules of individuals based on deep, invariant or 'structural' factors, factors such as how people value labor and leisure, that would not change as policy changed and you had to include in your macro model another deep factor, expectations.”
“如果你想要理解新政策的效果你必须挖得更深，你必须以深层的，不变或是'结构性'的因素来建立个人决策规则模型。这样的因素的一个例子就是人们对于工作和休息的价值评估，这些因素不会受政策改变而改变。而且你必须在你的宏观模型里加入另一个深层因素，预期。”
The 2011 laureates' work focuses on the implications of rational expectations for empirical and econometric work and on ways to uncover these structural parameters. Mr Sargent's enormous contributions to rational expectations econometrics were purely methodological and his methods are explicated in his three graduate textbooks: Macroeconomic Theory, Dynamic Macroeconomic Theory and Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, bibles of modern macroeconomics.
2011年获奖人的成果集中在理性预期对于实证和经济计量成果的影响，以及发现这些结构参数的方法。萨金特先生对于理性预期经济计量学的巨大贡献纯粹是在方法层面上的。他的三本研究生课本：《宏观经济论》，《动态宏观经济论》和《递归宏观经济论》清楚地阐述了他的方法。这三本著作被看成是宏观经济学的圣经。
However, Mr Sargent's association with the rational expectations revolution and its extension to the efficient markets hypothesis, much demonised during the crisis, is somewhat misunderstood. Much of his work has focused on agents learning within models and less-than-fully-rational expectations. Much of the criticism of rational expectations is integrated into this work. Learning involves two elements: firstly that agents (consumers or businesses) have incomplete knowledge of some parameters in the model, and secondly a specification of how agents learn about these parameters, based on the observations of evolving time series.
但是，萨金特先生和理性预期革命的联系，以及他将其拓展到在金融危机中被广泛妖魔化的有效市场假设[注3]，经常被人误解。他的成果大多集中在经济主体在模型限制下学习和不完全理性预期这些方面。对于理性预期的大多数批评也是和这些成果一体的。学习包含两个元素：首先主体（消费者或公司）对于模型的一些参数有不完全的了解，其次是细节的说明来决定主体怎么根据对变化的时间序列的观察来学习这些参数。
Chris Sims' work upset the existing paradigm by arguing that the existing models for looking at causal relationships in macroeconomics relied on "incredible" identification assumptions. This meant that interpretations of "what causes what" were necessarily flawed. There is a nice explanation of the problem that Mr Sims' work addresses in the technical backgrounder from the Nobel Committee.
克里斯·西姆斯的成果则推翻了原来的范例。他认为现有的分析宏观经济学中因果关系的模型依赖于“不可信”的识别假设。这意味着对于“什么引起什么”的解读一定是有问题的。以下是诺贝尔委员会提供的技术性背景资料中的一个很好的例子来说明这一成果。
“To appreciate the problem of identification, suppose we consider the coffee market and try to explain movements in the quantity and price of coffee. A traditional approach is to isolate a variable that is believed to solely influence either supply or demand. One such variable is weather. Bad weather may reduce the amount of coffee produced at all prices, i.e., it shifts the supply curve inward. If the demand curve for coffee is not affected, a change in the weather will lower the equilibrium quantity of coffee and raise its price. Variations in weather therefore allow us to trace out - to identify - the shape of the demand curve. However, is the assumption that weather does not influence the demand curve plausible? Even if people's taste for coffee does not depend directly on the weather, as Sims pointed out coffee buyers know that weather is variable and may stock up when adverse weather variations arise. Thus, expectations about weather (and other varying determinants of supply and/or demand) are likely to affect both supply and demand, in such a way that weather changes may not have the expected consequences.”
“为了理解识别问题，假设我们考虑咖啡市场来解释咖啡价格和数量的幅动。传统的方法是将一个被认为是只影响需求或供应的变量孤立出来。一个例子就是天气。坏天气降低所有价位的咖啡收成，也就是说它向内移动了供应曲线。如果咖啡的需求曲线不受影响，天气的变化就会降低咖啡的平衡产量并推高价格。因此，天气的变化使我们可以找出，也就是识别出需求曲线。但是，天气对于需求曲线没有影响这一假设是合理的吗？即使人们对于咖啡的品味不受天气影响，西姆斯指出咖啡购买者知道天气会变化就会在不利天气来到前囤积咖啡。因此，对于天气（和其它影响供应及/或需求的因素）的预期很可能同时影响需求和供应。这么一来天气的变化就可能不会导致预期的结果。”
He proposed a statistical tool, the vector autoregression (VAR), as a solution to this problem. As with Mr Sargent's work, VARs are now central to macroeconomics. This Nobel prize honours the ubiquity of their innovations.
他提出了一个统计工具，向量自回归（VAR），来解决这一问题。和萨金特先生的成果一样，VAR现在是宏观经济学的核心概念。诺贝尔奖是表彰他们创新成果的普遍适用性。
译者注
1 - “freshwater” school，70年代兴起的新派宏观经济学学派，提倡动态，定量，以在不缺定环境下的决策为基准来研究宏观经济。属于这一派的大学包括卡内基·梅隆大学，芝加哥大学，罗彻斯特大学和明尼苏达大学。这些大学都位于五大湖附近。称之为淡水学派。而与其相对的大多是美国东西海岸的大学，所以成为咸水学派。现在宏观经济学已没有这一分别，基本上已经互补长短了。
2 - 本文技术含量很大，因为我不是学经济的，只能掌握大意，欢迎指正。大概归纳"rational expectations revolution"的大意。即相对于当时别的思想，政府不可能以政策来绝对驱动经济，因为固定的政策一旦变得可预测，则会改变人们的期望，进而影响经济。他们的理论主要是研究怎么把这种期望也加入到模型里来寻求更好的经济政策。
3 - Efficient-market hypothesis 有效市场假设，认为市场是信息有效的，即市场价格已经反映了所有的可能信息，而且任何新信息出来都会立刻影响价格。这么一来，除非碰运气，你不可能通过分析信息来持续获得比市场平均更高的回报。这一学说被广泛批评过，尤其是2008年的金融危机中显示了次贷价格并没有真实反映其风险，成为该危机的导火索。有人甚至不惜说次贷危机完全是因为该假设引起的，因此文中提到该假设被妖魔化。
Why can not Chinese scientist win the Nobel prize ?
Nobel prize 有没有数学的？
请列出所有与激光有关的诺贝尔奖Nobel Prize
爱因斯坦为什么著名，而得到了Nobel prize?
____ is no possibility that Bob can win the first prize in the match.
i have won first prize in the match .为什么first前不加the ??
win the prize是什么意思？
get prize=win the prize 吗？
The prize ____they are competing is a new computer.
The boy has won a prize()his little invention.
获一等奖是win first prize ？为什么不加the ?
Who knows the prize of adidas 1 basketball shoes?
求写一篇英语作文，题目：why are thereff No Nobel price-winners in china
求代写一篇作文，题目：why are there No Nobel Price-winners in china
求助：英语根据首字母填空 The judges a____ the first prize to her for her picture
The information in this e-mail is confidential and may be legally privileged
in common,in the same
The pay phone is over there , just ( ) the park gatA. outside B.in the front of C.at the back of e.
in the field 还是in the fields?
The girl in the hat?
The world in the future
1.We will give a prize to ( )passes the test.为何选whoever不选anyone
they were not the state prize winner .里的state是什么意思?
prize moneyof 7.000,000.00<seven million enros>shared among the international winners .翻译