李秋歌不是东西:中国握有遏制全球经济衰退的钥匙

Customers peruse the meat selection at a shop on Jan. 17, 2012, in Shanghai.

2012年1月17日，上海一家商店内，顾客在仔细翻看肉品

HONG KONG – China's gross domestic product grew at its slowest pace in more than two years in the fourth quarter, and the worst may be yet to come, as weak exports and government tightening ripple through the world's second-largest economy.

　　【香港消息】在过去两年多的时间里，中国去年四季度的GDP增速创了新低，然而由于疲弱的出口和中国政府对自身经济持续收紧的动作，最糟糕的形势也许仍未到来。

In the final three months of 2011, China's GDP — the total value of goods and services — increased 8.9% from a year earlier. That was a fourth-consecutive quarter of slowing growth and the slowest expansion since the second quarter of 2009, when the economy grew 8.2%, the Chinese government said Tuesday.

　　本周二，中国有关部门发布的报告称，2011年的最后三个月，中国的GDP同比增长8.9%，这是连续第四个季度增速下滑，而且也是自2009年二季度经济增长8.2%以来创下的最低的经济增长率。

For all of 2011, China's economy expanded 9.2%, compared with 10.4% the year before.

　　纵观整个2011年，中国的经济增长率为9.2%，2010年为10.4%。

Many analysts had forecast a bigger fourth-quarter slowdown. "At this point, it's still growth moderation, not a sharp slowdown," says Sun Junwei, a China economist at HSBC in Beijing, who had expected the economy to grow 8.6% year-over-year in the fourth quarter.

　　本来许多分析师预测的四季度增速更低。汇丰银行中国区经济学家孙俊威在北京表示，“从发布的数据上来讲，中国经济还在温和地增长，而不是剧烈地减速。”他曾预测去年四季度同比增长率为8.6%。

China's economy is slowing much faster when looked at quarter over quarter: The economy expanded 8.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with 9.5% in the third quarter. IHS Global Insight, an economic analysis firm, expects China's GDP growth to fall 1 percentage point more in the first quarter.

　　从季度环比来看，中国经济减速正在加快：四季度经济增长仅为8.2%，而三季度为9.5%。经济分析公司IHS环球透视预测中国的GDP增速极有可能在今年一季度回落1个百分点。

Yet the country's economy is growing many times faster than those of developed nations. In September, the International Monetary Fund projected that the U.S. economy expanded 1.5% at an annual rate and the eurozone 1.6% at an annual rate in 2011.

　　这个国家的经济增速仍然比那些发达国家高出很多倍。去年9月份，国际货币基金组织预测2011年美国经济的年增长率为1.5%，而欧元区为1.6%。

Yet the weakening of one of the world's growth engines could pull down global prices for commodities that have surged because of demand from China, including metals from Australia and soybeans from the United States.

　　然而，作为世界经济增长的发动机之一，中国经济增长趋弱可能会拖垮本因中国的需求而高涨的全球商品价格体系，其中包括澳大利亚的金属和美国的大豆。

China's slowdown comes as the European debt crisis threatens to pull the global economy into another recession. Friday, Standard & Poor's downgraded nine European nations' credit ratings, warning that the governments of those countries need to do more to resolve the debt crisis. The downgrade could raise the countries' borrowing costs and tarnish their growth prospects.

　　中国经济的减速与欧洲债务危机将全球经济拖入另一次衰退的威胁不期而遇。上周五标普下调了9个欧洲国家的信用评级，并警告说为了解决债务危机，那些国家的政府需要拿出更多的解决办法。这次下调将增大有关国家的借贷成本并使他们的增长预期趋于黯淡。

Kevin Lai, a senior economist at Daiwa Securities in Hong Kong, expects the global economy to avoid a recession. But an escalation of the European debt crisis or a sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy's growth to 7.5% for a few consecutive quarters are among the triggers that could "easily tip the balance" and lead to a global crisis, according to Lai.

　　香港大和证券的高级经济学家赖志文认为全球经济会避免步入衰退。但是根据赖先生的分析，欧洲债务危机继续扩大或者中国经济增速急剧下降到7.5%并持续几个季度等可能都是“轻而易举地打破平衡”的触发器并导致全球性的危机。

The risk is that Europe's problems could suppress Asia's growth and lead to tighter funding conditions or a credit squeeze, says Elena Okorotchenko, a managing director in Asia-Pacific for S&P's Rating Services.

　　标普评级服务亚太大区的常务董事埃琳娜·欧克罗契科说，危险在于欧洲的问题会抑制亚洲的增长并导致资金状况更紧张或出现信贷紧缩。

Export growth is slowing in China amid soft demand from its top trading partners, the European Union and the U.S. Zhang Xiaoqiang, the deputy director of China's National Development and Reform Commission, warned this month that exports could be "grim" in the first half of 2012, reported Xinhua, the state's official news agency.

　　由于中国的两大贸易伙伴欧盟和美国需求疲软，因此中国的出口增速也在放缓。根据新华社的报道，发改委副主任张晓强本月警告说，2012年上半年中国的出口形势会非常严峻。

Meanwhile, home prices in China's major cities are falling after the government moved to combat a potential real estate bubble by requiring larger down payments and taking other measures.

　　与此同时，中国大城市的房价正在下跌。政府通过要求更高比例的首付款及其它措施，投入精力与潜在的房地产泡沫作斗争。

A "disruptive correction" in China's real estate market remains one of the major risks to the Chinese economy, wrote Brian Jackson, a senior strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada, in a Tuesday research note.

　　加拿大皇家银行高级战略规划师布赖恩·杰克逊本周三在一份研究笔记中写到，中国房地产市场的“破坏性修正”是中国经济面临的主要风险之一。

Yet because inflation remains high, the government won't be able to "step on the gas again to re-accelerate the economy," predicts Li Cui, chief China economist for RBS. "There's a tradeoff between growth and inflation."

　　但是由于通货膨胀依然很高，因此苏格兰皇家银行中国区首席经济学家崔丽预测，中国政府“为了使经济重新加速，不能再次采取猛踩油门的措施了。在经济增长与通货膨胀之间要找好平衡点。”