1980年出生的人属什么:世界经济：移民的魔力

移民经济是世界经济中难得一见的亮点。富国应该欢迎移民的到来。

THIS is not a good time to be foreign. Anti-immigrant parties are gaining ground in Europe. Britain has been fretting this week over lapses in its border controls (see article). In America Barack Obama has failed to deliver the immigration reform he promised (see article), and Republican presidential candidates would rather electrify the border fence with Mexico than educate the children of illegal aliens. America educates foreign scientists in its universities and then expels them, a policy the mayor of New York calls “national suicide”.

现在的外国人日子不好过。反移民政党在欧洲获得越来越多的支持。英国本周也在为入境管理中的疏漏烦恼不已。在美国，巴拉克·奥巴马未能实现早先承诺的移民改革；而比起让非法移民的子女受教育，共和党的总统候选人们更愿意把美墨边境的隔离栏改造成电网。美国在自己的大学里培养出外国科学家，之后就把他们赶出国门，这种政策被纽约市长称作“国家自杀”。

This illiberal turn in attitudes to migration is no surprise. It is the result of cyclical economic gloom combined with a secular rise in pressure on rich countries’ borders. But governments now weighing up whether or not to try to slam the door should consider another factor: the growing economic importance of diasporas, and the contribution they can make to a country’s economic growth.

这种对移民的态度更趋狭隘的转变并不奇怪。它是由周期性的经济不振和富国边境上长期增长的压力共同作用的结果。不过，那些正在权衡是否应该设法砰然关闭国门的政府应该考虑另一个因素：移民们日渐增长的经济上的重要性，以及他们能够为一个国家的经济增长做出的贡献。

Old networks, new communications

旧网络，新交流

Diaspora networks—of Huguenots, Scots, Jews and many others—have always been a potent economic force, but the cheapness and ease of modern travel has made them larger and more numerous than ever before. There are now 215m first-generation migrants around the world: that’s 3% of the world’s population. If they were a nation, it would be a little larger than Brazil. There are more Chinese people living outside China than there are French people in France. Some 22m Indians are scattered all over the globe. Small concentrations of ethnic and linguistic groups have always been found in surprising places—Lebanese in west Africa, Japanese in Brazil and Welsh in Patagonia, for instance—but they have been joined by newer ones, such as west Africans in southern China.

移民网络——胡格诺派教徒、苏格兰人、犹太人及许多其它族裔的移民——一直都是一股强劲的经济力量，但便宜又便利的现代交通手段使这些移民网络变得前所未有地庞大和数量众多。当今在全球范围内有2.15亿一代移民：占世界人口的3%。如果这些人组成一个国家，将会比巴西还略大一点。生活在海外的中国人比法国国内的法国人还要多。约有2200万印度人分布在世界各地。人们总会在意想不到的地点发现由同一族裔或操同一语言的族群构成的小规模的聚居地——例如，西非的黎巴嫩人、巴西的日本人及巴塔哥尼亚高原（译注：位于南美洲东南部）的威尔士人——而这种聚落后继有人，比如居住在中国南方的西非裔人士。

These networks of kinship and language make it easier to do business across borders (see article). They speed the flow of information: a Chinese trader in Indonesia who spots a gap in the market for cheap umbrellas will alert his cousin in Shenzhen who knows someone who runs an umbrella factory. Kinship ties foster trust, so they can seal the deal and get the umbrellas to Jakarta before the rainy season ends. Trust matters, especially in emerging markets where the rule of law is weak. So does a knowledge of the local culture. That is why so much foreign direct investment in China still passes through the Chinese diaspora. And modern communications make these networks an even more powerful tool of business.

这些由亲缘关系和共同语言构成的网络使跨境生意变得更容易做。它们加速了信息的流通：一位在印尼经商的中国商人发现市场上的廉价雨伞供不应求，他会通知在深圳的表兄弟，而后者认识一位雨伞厂的厂主。亲缘关系的纽带加强了彼此间的信任，因此他们可以达成交易，在雨季结束之前把伞运到雅加达。信任很重要，特别是在法治力量薄弱的新兴市场尤为重要。对当地文化的了解也同样重要。这就是为什么有如此大量的外国对华直接投资仍然是通过海外华人这一渠道。而现代通讯方式使这些网络成为更有力的商业手段。

Diasporas also help spread ideas. Many of the emerging world’s brightest minds are educated at Western universities. An increasing number go home, taking with them both knowledge and contacts. Indian computer scientists in Bangalore bounce ideas constantly off their Indian friends in Silicon Valley. China’s technology industry is dominated by “sea turtles” (Chinese who have lived abroad and returned).

移民还有助于思想的传播。新兴国家最优秀的人才中，许多都是在西方大学受的教育。越来越多的人才回国，带回知识和有用的社会关系。班加罗尔的印度计算机科学家们不断向他们身在硅谷的印度友人打探消息。中国的科技产业由一群“海归”（归国的海外华人）掌控。

Diasporas spread money, too. Migrants into rich countries not only send cash to their families; they also help companies in their host country operate in their home country. A Harvard Business School study shows that American companies that employ lots of ethnic Chinese people find it much easier to set up in China without a joint venture with a local firm.

移民还能传播财富。移居富国的移民不仅给家里寄钱，还能帮助移居国的企业在自己的祖国运营。一份哈佛商学院做的研究表明，雇佣大量华人的美国公司发现无需和中国企业合资经营时，在华经商更为容易。

Such arguments are unlikely to make much headway against hostility towards immigrants in rich countries. Fury against foreigners is usually based on two (mutually incompatible) notions: that because so many migrants claim welfare they are a drain on the public purse; and that because they are prepared to work harder for less pay they will depress the wages of those at the bottom of the pile.

这些理由对于扭转富国国内对移民的敌意恐怕起不到什么效果。对外国人的仇视情绪通常建立在两种（互不相容的）观点之上：一种观点是，因为有这么多移民要求获得福利，他们会把国库榨干；另一种观点是，由于肯多做事少收钱，他们会压低社会底层劳动者的劳动报酬。

The first is usually not true (in Britain, for instance, immigrants claim benefits less than indigenous people do), and the second is hard to establish either way. Some studies do indeed suggest that competition from unskilled immigrants depresses the wages of unskilled locals. But others find this effect to be small or non-existent.

第一种观点通常是不符合实际的（比如，在英国，申领福利的移民没有本地人多），而第二种观点也很难成立。的确有一些研究表明，来自无技能的移民的竞争压低了无技能的本地劳工的价格。但其它的研究表明，这种效应很小或根本不存在。

Nor is it possible to establish the impact of migration on overall growth. The sums are simply too difficult. Yet there are good reasons for believing that it is likely to be positive. Migrants tend to be hard-working and innovative. That spurs productivity and company formation. A recent study carried out by Duke University showed that, while immigrants make up an eighth of America’s population, they founded a quarter of the country’s technology and engineering firms. And, by linking the West with emerging markets, diasporas help rich countries to plug into fast-growing economies.

要确定移民对总体经济成长的影响同样是不可能的。这道算术题太难了。但我们有理由相信移民对经济的这种影响很可能是正面的。移民往往工作勤奋并富有创新精神。这促进了生产力并激发了创业意愿。一项由杜克大学做的最新研究表明，尽管移民人口只占美国总人口的八分之一，但全国四分之一的科技和工程公司是由他们创建的。此外，作为西方和新兴市场国家之间的桥梁，移民们帮助富国接入快速发展的经济体。

Rich countries are thus likely to benefit from looser immigration policy; and fears that poor countries will suffer as a result of a “brain drain” are overblown. The prospect of working abroad spurs more people to acquire valuable skills, and not all subsequently emigrate. Skilled migrants send money home, and they often return to set up new businesses. One study found that unless they lose more than 20% of their university graduates, the brain drain makes poor countries richer.

因此，富国极有可能从较为宽松的移民政策中获益；而对于穷国将可能承受“人才外流”的恶果的恐惧也是言过其实的。出国工作的前景激励更多的人掌握有用的技能，但并非所有人都能移民。有工作技能的移民寄钱回家，并且常常会回国创业。一项研究指出，除非穷国中超过20%的大学毕业生移民海外，否则人才外流只会让穷国变富有。

Indian takeaways

印度外卖餐馆

Government as well as business gains from the spread of ideas through diasporas. Foreign-educated Indians, including the prime minister, Manmohan Singh (Oxford and Cambridge) and his sidekick Montek Ahluwalia (Oxford), played a big role in bringing economic reform to India in the early 1990s. Some 500,000 Chinese people have studied abroad and returned, mostly in the past decade; they dominate the think-tanks that advise the government, and are moving up the ranks of the Communist Party. Cheng Li of the Brookings Institution, an American think-tank, predicts that they will be 15-17% of its Central Committee next year, up from 6% in 2002. Few sea turtles call openly for democracy. But they have seen how it works in practice, and they know that many countries that practise it are richer, cleaner and more stable than China.

除了让企业获益，通过移民进行的思想传播还能让政府也同样获益。在外国受教育的印度人，包括总理曼莫汉·辛格（牛津和剑桥）及助手蒙特克·阿卢瓦利亚（牛津），在1990年代初在印度推行经济改革的决策中扮演了重要角色。在过去十年间，约50万中国留学生学成归国。他们主导了向政府提建议的智库，并在中共内部渐居要职。美国智库布鲁金斯研究所的李成预言，明年他们在中共中央委员会里的席位将从2002年的6%上升为15-17%。很少有海归公开呼吁实行民主。但他们都看到过民主的实例，并且知道许多实行民主的国家都比中国更富有、更廉洁、更稳定。

As for the old world, its desire to close its borders is understandable but dangerous. Migration brings youth to ageing countries, and allows ideas to circulate in millions of mobile minds. That is good both for those who arrive with suitcases and dreams and for those who should welcome them.

至于旧世界，他们关闭边境的愿望可以理解，但这种想法同时又是危险的。移民为老龄化国家带来年轻人，并使思想在数以百万计的头脑中传播。这无论是对带着皮箱和梦想来到此地的人，还是对那些应该欢迎他们到来的人，都有好处。