金庸怎么评价黄日华:印度和越南联手抗衡中国-738-

这并不是说，如若不是因为这一因素，印度和越南的友好关系就不会存在。越南人对印度人的评价历来很高，因为后者不仅支持他们摆脱法国的殖民统治、赢得国家独立，而且还曾支持他们反对美国插手越南事务。此外，印度早在1991年就制定了利用东亚经济增长机会的“东向政策”(Look East)。但中国的崛起给印越关系增添了一种强大的战略意义，更不必说紧迫感了。

印越双方都意识到，加强两国关系要从增进经济往来开始。两国在2003年签订了一份协议，其中设想了在东南亚创造一个“优势与繁荣之弧”(Arc of Advantage and Prosperity)。所以，这两个国家一直在推进贸易关系，特别是在2009年印度与东南亚国家联盟(Association of South-East Asian Nations，简称：东盟)签署了自由贸易协议后。印越双边贸易额现已突破20亿美元。

双方还可以为加强经济合作做更多工作。鉴于印度和越南都是主要的新兴经济体，两国间的双边贸易水平远未发挥出其应有潜力。两国还需要创造性地思考扩大投资机会的问题，尤其是在能源、钢铁和医药领域。通过建立更强有力的制度性机制就可以做到这一点，该机制可以定期审查两国经济关系并采取措施加强这种关系。

不过，印度对越南的持久兴趣在国防领域。印度希望与越南这种能对中国形成压力的国家建立关系。出于这种考虑，印度一直在帮助越南加强海军和空军实力。

由于越南和印度使用的都是俄罗斯和前苏联的防御平台，因此印度可以很容易地为越南提供国防技术。印度正就向越南出售印俄合作生产的BrahMos超音速巡航导弹进行谈判。这种武器能使越南在本地区凸显自己的力量并加强对中国的威慑。

印越两国在确保海上通道的安全方面也有利害关系，并且都担心中国会进入印度洋和南中国海。因此，印度正在帮助越南提升修复和维护防御平台的能力。与此同时，两国的武装力量已经开始在信息技术和越南军人的英文培训等方面展开合作。两国也在分享山地和丛林作战方面的经验。

不过，海军方面的合作依然是焦点。印度已经获得越南南部港口芽庄（Nha Trang）的使用权；印度海军已访问过这一港口。这方面的最终安排虽然还不完全明朗，但已经对中国产生了象征性意义。

印越两国可能还拥有一个共同的朋友：美国。印度在过去十年与美国稳固地建立了关系，而随着南中国海成为利益冲突爆发点，越南一直在讨好美国。在这三个国家琢磨如何应对中国的崛起时，他们的关系将会被拉得更近。

中国对印度与越南间交易的谴责表明，中国会力图制止其战略性竞争对手联合起来对抗它。但如果印度和越南都坚定立场，那么他们可能会迫使中国缓和在南中国海问题上的扩张主义诉求，并在其他地区事务上采取更为妥协的立场。

（编者注：本文作者HARSH V. PANT是伦敦大学国王学院（King's College）国防研究教授。）

HARSH V. PANT

India is the latest country to get drawn into the South China Sea dispute. Earlier this month, Beijing told New Delhi that its permission was needed for India's state-owned oil and gas firm to explore for energy in two Vietnamese blocks in those waters. This follows reports of a Chinese vessel confronting an Indian Navy frigate off Vietnam in late July.

Vietnam quickly cited the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea to claim its sovereign rights over the two blocks in question. Hanoi has been sparring with Beijing over the South China Sea in the past year, so such a response was expected.

What's new is New Delhi not taking Chinese aggression in that region sitting down. It immediately decided to support Hanoi's claims. Last week, Indian Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna visited Vietnam and made it clear that its state-owned firm would continue to explore in the South China Sea. The display of backbone helped India strengthen its relationship with Vietnam. If China wants to expand its presence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region, New Delhi's thinking goes, India can do the same thing in East Asia.

The linchpin of this eastward move would be Vietnam. Hanoi fought a brief war with Beijing in 1979 and has grown wary of the Middle Kingdom's increasing economic and military weight. That's why in some quarters of New Delhi, Vietnam is already seen as a counterweight in the same way Pakistan has been for China.

That's not to say good India-Vietnam relations wouldn't exist otherwise. Vietnamese have traditionally held Indians in high regard because of the latter's support for Vietnamese independence from France and their opposition to U.S. involvement in the country. And New Delhi formulated a 'Look East' policy as early as 1991, to capitalize on East Asia's economic growth. But the rise of China has given this relationship a powerful strategic─not to mention urgent─dimension.

Both sides realize that a stronger bilateral relationship starts with economic ties. The two countries signed an agreement in 2003 in which they envisioned creating an 'Arc of Advantage and Prosperity' in Southeast Asia. So they've been boosting trade, especially after New Delhi signed a free-trade agreement with the Association of South-East Asian Nations in 2009. The volume of bilateral trade now exceeds $2 billion.

Both sides could still do more to enhance economic cooperation. Bilateral trade is much below the potential, given that India and Vietnam are major emerging economies. The two countries also need to think creatively about expanding investment opportunities, especially in the energy, steel, and pharmaceutical sectors. This can be done by establishing stronger institutional mechanisms that review the economic relationship on a regular basis and take steps to enhance it.

New Delhi's abiding interest in Vietnam, though, is in the defense realm. It wants to build relations with states like Vietnam that can act as pressure points against China. With this in mind, it has been helping Hanoi beef up its naval and air capabilities.

Given that Vietnam and India use similar Russian and erstwhile Soviet defense platforms, New Delhi could easily offer defense technologies to Hanoi. Talks are ongoing for India to sell the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, an Indo-Russian joint venture. Such arms could allow Vietnam to project regional power and improve deterrence against China.

The two nations also have stakes in ensuring sea-lane security, as well as shared concerns about Chinese access to the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. Hence, India is helping Vietnam to build capacity for repair and maintenance of its defense platforms. At the same time, the armed forces of the two states have started cooperation in areas like IT and English-language training of Vietnamese Army personnel. The two are also sharing their experiences in mountainous and jungle warfare.

Naval cooperation, however, remains the focus. Here, Vietnam has given India the right to use its port of Nha Trang in the south; the Indian Navy has already made a port call. It is not entirely clear what the final arrangement would look like, but the symbolism of this is not lost on China.

The two countries potentially share a common friend─the U.S. New Delhi has steadily built relations with Washington in the past decade, while Vietnam has been courting America as the South China Sea becomes a flashpoint. As these three countries ponder how to manage China's rise, they will be drawn closer together.

By lashing out against India for its dealings with Vietnam, China has shown it will try to deter strategic competitors from collaborating against it. But if both India and Vietnam stand firm, they could force Beijing to moderate its expansionist claims on the South China Sea and adopt a more conciliatory stance on other regional matters.

Mr. Pant is a professor of defense studies at King's College, London.