进口大众途锐图片:在应对金融海啸声中一个值得我们借鉴的新思维 - 何祚庥 - TOM博客

最近，海外友人给我寄来曾任美国克林顿总统的副手阿·戈尔副总统所撰写的，并发表在于今年11月9日纽约时报上的文章《变革的大气候正在形成》。由于阿·戈尔既在美国政坛有一定的地位，又是2007年诺贝尔和平奖的获得者，而且一向以高度关注美国的科技和经济应如何发展的许多真知灼见而著名，——现在就又提出了美国应如何应对金融经济海啸的具体方案。
拜读之下，确实非常重要。尤其是此文严厉地批评了在美国出现的一种技术主张，用“更昂贵和更肮脏的方案来增加石油产量，如煤变油，从页岩中取油，用沥青沙炼油，和所谓的‘清洁煤’的技术”。阿·戈尔却认为，“上面的每一种方案不是太贵，就是严重污染。”“至于‘清洁煤’的方案，从国家安全和全球气候变化的角度考虑，则是太过于异想天开。”“那些一直鼓吹以上亿 美元的代价发展‘清洁煤’的技术的人，他们始终无视一个基本事实，那就是到目前为止，在美国他们既未找到投资者，也没有实现那怕是一个演示的项目，表明技术上真是把这些污染物都安全地深埋在地下了。” 阿·戈尔甚至将“洁净煤”斥之为“只谋私利”和“自我欣赏”的技术。
在我国也有类似争论，在“院士”间也有不同意见。而我却完全赞同阿·戈尔所持观点。
当然，更重要的是阿·戈尔提出的“五点方案”，其中心实质是主张大力发展风能和太阳能发电和筹建全国统一的智能电网，——这实际上是为了彻底解决影响风能太阳能发展的最大障碍，风能和太阳能发电的间隙性问题。此外是如何更快的转变到用可再生能源驱动电动车和大规模推行建筑节能。阿·戈尔还呼吁“美国应该带头首先在国内实行碳排放收费制”，呼吁“美国在明年哥本哈根会上用更有效的国际条约或协议取代京都协议”，呼吁“重建美国作为全球的道义上和政治上的领导权威，领导全球来解决这一难题”。
不能认为阿·戈尔的建议，就一定为美国未来的奥巴马总统所全盘接受，但必定会在美国的政治、经济以及科技领域产生重大影响！
我个人认为阿·戈尔的“五点方案”中也有不足之处，似未能估计到光伏发电技术在近期将有革命性进展，将能比太阳能热发电更有效地、也更经济地提供所需电力。至少在中国的沙漠地区，“缺水”仍是阻碍提高太阳能热发电效率的一个重要因素。
但总的来说，在我国应如何应对金融海啸出现的困难，A·戈尔的声音，是值得我们高度重视和借鉴的新思维。
变革的大气候正在形成
Al Gore
美国人选择了Barak Obama作为他们第44届总统。这一激动人心的变革性的选择，为下一个即将决定我们命运的选择奠定了基础：这就是明年一月总统和我们必须开始采取一项紧急的政策措施，将人类文明从日益逼近的由全球气候变化而引发的危机中拯救出来。
人生而平等。忠实地实践这一美国独立时的革命宣言，使我们今天得以实现领导层的更新。而这一变革性的更新，是在当今世界正迫切需要保护其最主要的资源和环境之时，——我们要保护我们的唯一家园地球，要保障地球上有我们能够生存的条件。
关于气候变化所引发的危机，世界权威机构——国际政府间气候变化专门委员会，根据其20年的细致研究和四个一致同意的报告，宣称气候变暖的证据是“确凿”的。那些时至今日仍然企图诋毁世界各国科学家提出的警告，无视北极圈冰盖的融化和地球上各种灾难性变化的征兆，睁眼不顾对人类未来生存构成威胁的预警的人，是你们清醒的时候了。我们的孩子和孩子的孩子，要求你们面对事实，承认真理，不要贻误时机。
一个有利的消息是：为解决气候变暖而引发的危险所必须采取的重大行动，和应对当今经济危机以及对能源安全的威胁所应采取的行动步骤是完全一致的。
经济学家们，从马丁·费尔德斯坦到劳伦斯·苏末尔，都同意为使我们的经济能尽快复苏而且能持续地发展，最好的办法是赶快制定和实施强有力的基础建设投资计划。许多人也都意识到：如果我们每年仍继续消费上千亿美元的进口石油，我国经济必然落后。不仅如此，两党（按：指民主党和共和党）国家安全问题专家们都同意，一旦获取中东石油的通道受阻，战略上我们将面临危险的境地。
正如亚伯拉罕·林肯总统在美国的最黑暗年代里曾说道：“现在困难堆积如山，但我们仍必须从困难中站立起来。因为我们面对的情况完全是新的，所以必须有新的思维，新的措施。”今天我们的处境正是如此，而新思维要求我们面对现实问题时，要摈弃一切过时而根本上是错误的观念。
三十五年前的上一周，尼克松总统制定了一个“独立自主计划”。该项目的国家目标就是用7年时间使美国具备“能源能自足自给，不再依赖外来的能力”。这一决定是在阿拉伯世界实行石油禁运，从而使全球石油价格飚升三星期之后宣布的。此事件惊醒了我国，依赖国外原油是多么危险！而且也并非偶然，这一事件是在美国自产的原油达到顶峰的三年之后发生的。
有一个时期，美国从国外进口的原油只占全部油的1/3。可事实是，在尼克松总统之后继任的6位总统都重申了类似的目标后，今天我们依赖国外原油的程度却是翻了一翻，进口量从1/3变成2/3。注意到很多人都认为全球原油产量已达到或接近达到峰值。
但是，仍有人认为问题出在国内生产。他们的观点是：如果增加国内的石油或煤的产量，我们就可以不再依靠中东的石油。还有些人甚而主张采用更昂贵和更肮脏的方案来增加石油产量，如煤变油，从页岩   中取油，用沥青沙炼油，和所谓的“清洁煤”的技术。
但是上面的每一种方案不是太贵，就是严重污染。至于“清洁煤”的方案，从国家安全和全球气候变化的角度考虑，则是太过于异想天开。那些一直鼓吹以上亿 美元的代价发展“清洁煤”的技术的人，他们始终无视一个基本事实，那就是到目前为止，在美国他们既未找到投资者，也没有实现那怕是一个演示的项目，表明技术上真是把这些污染物都安全地深埋在地下了。当然如果真有人实现了此项技术，我将全力支持。但是除非真正掌握了此项技术，我们不能将人类今后生存的命运寄托在只谋私利(cynical)和自我欣赏（self-interested）的想象之上。(注：此处原译不准确，现改译)
那么，现在我们要做的是什么？我们应该立即制定大规模的投资计划，投资到取代19世纪以来，以碳为基础的昂贵而危险的能源技术，改用取之不尽，用之不竭的能源：太阳能、风能、和地热能，将劳动力吸收到这一生产领域中来。
下面是一个五点方案。这个方案的目标是争取在10年内实现使我国的发电量全部来自无碳的燃料。这一方案将同时既使我们能解决面临的气候变暖的问题，又可以解决当前的经济危机，同时还可以无限制地的创造成百万新的就业岗位。
第一，新总统和新的国会应该实施一项巨大的投资计划，鼓励在西南沙漠地区建造大规模的太阳能热发电厂，在沿德洲到达科达洲的走廊地带建造风力发电厂，在有温泉和地热资源的地区建造先进的地热发电厂。
第二，我们要开始计划筹建全国统一的智能电网，实现将在边远偏僻地区的可再生能源发出的电输送到中心城市以便利用。新的高压低耗的地下电网具有“智能”的功能，可为消费者提供多种信息和易于使用的既节电又高效的手段，从而大大节省他们的能源开支。这一现代电网的建设投资估计是10年4000亿美元。作为比较，可以指出：美国企业单位今天因落后而分散的电网而导致的连锁事故而受损的金额每年高达1200亿美元！
第三，我们应该救助我们的汽车工业（不仅是三大巨头（注：指通用，福特和克莱斯勒），还应包括新成立的新技术的公司）使它们尽快转产插入式（注：即电油）混合动力车，这样，当条件成熟后，就可以直接用上可再生能源提供的电能。加上有一个统一的电网，这一电油混合动力车的庞大系统的出现将大大缓解电力短缺的问题。设想一下，因为有这种全国统一的电网，汽车可以在避峰时刻充电，而在电网峰值供电时刻，路上的车辆少时，系统可以反过来为电网补充电能。
第四，我们要动员全国力量大规模改进建筑物的隔热性能，包括窗户的密封性质和室内照明等等，以达到节能效果。要知道在美国，大约40%的二氧化碳的排放量是由建筑物的能耗引起的。同时节能减排又可为居民及企业节省了开支。这一方案还应该和国会的另一项提案结合起来，目的是帮助那些因每月的分期付款的负担已超出其房屋本身的价值的困难人群。
第五，美国应该带头首先在国内实行碳排放收费制。这样就可以在世界上领导其他国家，在明年哥本哈根会上用更有效的国际条约或协议取代京都协议，制订出一个全球二氧化碳的排放上限，鼓励其他国家一起用更迅速的投资手段，加快减少使全球变暖的污染排放，包括减少对森林的破坏。
当然，为保护我们未来命运，达成一项全球协议，最好，也是唯一的办法，是重建美国作为全球的道义上和政治上的领导权威，引领全球来解决这一难题。
我对未来满怀希望。我们一定能够迎接这样的变革，拯救我们的经济，拯救我们的地球，因而也是最终拯救我们自己。
历史上在早先美国的变动时期中，肯尼迪总统曾经为我国制定过一项挑战性的十年计划：将人类送上月球。8年2个月后，尼尔·阿姆斯特朗的双足踏上了月球表面。当时在休斯顿控制室中为阿波罗11欢呼的系统工程师的平均年龄是26岁。这就是说，当肯尼迪总统宣布这一雄伟计划时，这些人的平均年龄是18岁！
今年我们又一次见证了美国年轻人的崛起：他们的极积性大大增强了奥巴马的竞选活动。我一点也不怀疑，正是这一批有能量的年轻人，将在保证我国未来的变革中，再一次发挥主要作用，将看起来不可能实现的目标，转变为鼓舞人们的胜利。
作者简介
阿尔·戈尔 ， 美国1993年至2001年的副总统，2007年度诺贝尔和平奖得主之一。他创建了保护气候同盟会。作为一名企业家，他投资于各种替代能源的公司项目。在副总统任期内，他还曾协助克林顿总统提出高速信息公路的思想和政策。
文章来源：
美国纽约时报，2008，11，09，庆承瑞译。
November 9, 2008
Op-Ed Contributor
The Climate for Change
By AL GORE
THE inspiring and transformative choice by the American people to elect Barack Obama as our 44th president lays the foundation for another fateful choice that he and we must make this January to begin an emergency rescue of human civilization from the imminent and rapidly growing threat posed by the climate crisis.
The electrifying redemption of America’s revolutionary declaration that all human beings are born equal sets the stage for the renewal of United States leadership in a world that desperately needs to protect its primary endowment: the integrity and livability of the planet.
The world authority on the climate crisis, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, after 20 years of detailed study and four unanimous reports, now says that the evidence is “unequivocal.” To those who are still tempted to dismiss the increasingly urgent alarms from scientists around the world, ignore the melting of the north polar ice cap and all of the other apocalyptic warnings from the planet itself, and who roll their eyes at the very mention of this existential threat to the future of the human species, please wake up. Our children and grandchildren need you to hear and recognize the truth of our situation, before it is too late.
Here is the good news: the bold steps that are needed to solve the climate crisis are exactly the same steps that ought to be taken in order to solve the economic crisis and the energy security crisis.
Economists across the spectrum including Martin Feldstein and Lawrence Summers agree that large and rapid investments in a jobs-intensive infrastructure initiative is the best way to revive our economy in a quick and sustainable way. Many also agree that our economy will fall behind if we continue spending hundreds of billions of dollars on foreign oil every year. Moreover, national security experts in both parties agree that we face a dangerous strategic vulnerability if the world suddenly loses access to Middle Eastern oil.
As Abraham Lincoln said during America’s darkest hour, “The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew, and act anew.” In our present case, thinking anew requires discarding an outdated and fatally flawed definition of the problem we face.
Thirty-five years ago this past week, President Richard Nixon created Project Independence, which set a national goal that, within seven years, the United States would develop “the potential to meet our own energy needs without depending on any foreign energy sources.” His statement came three weeks after the Arab oil embargo had sent prices skyrocketing and woke America to the dangers of dependence on foreign oil. And not coincidentally it came only three years after United States domestic oil production had peaked.
At the time, the United States imported less than a third of its oil from foreign countries. Yet today, after all six of the presidents succeeding Nixon repeated some version of his goal, our dependence has doubled from one-third to nearly two-thirds and many feel that global oil production is at or near its peak.
Some still see this as a problem of domestic production. If we could only increase oil and coal production at home, they argue, then we wouldn’t have to rely on imports from the Middle East. Some have come up with even dirtier and more expensive new ways to extract the same old fuels, like coal liquids, oil shale, tar sands and “clean coal” technology.
But in every case, the resources in question are much too expensive or polluting, or, in the case of “clean coal,” too imaginary to make a difference in protecting either our national security or the global climate. Indeed, those who spend hundreds of millions promoting “clean coal” technology consistently omit the fact that there is little investment and not a single large-scale demonstration project in the United States for capturing and safely burying all of this pollution. If the coal industry can make good on this promise, then I’m all for it. But until that day comes, we simply cannot any longer base the strategy for human survival on a cynical and self-interested illusion.
Here’s what we can do now: we can make an immediate and large strategic investment to put people to work replacing 19th-century energy technologies that depend on dangerous and expensive carbon-based fuels with 21st-century technologies that use fuel that is free forever: the sun, the wind and the natural heat of the earth.
What follows is a five-part plan to repower America with a commitment to producing 100 percent of our electricity from carbon-free sources within 10 years. It is a plan that would simultaneously move us toward solutions to the climate crisis and the economic crisis and create millions of new jobs that cannot be outsourced.
First, the new president and the new Congress should offer large-scale investment in incentives for the construction of concentrated solar thermal plants in the Southwestern deserts, wind farms in the corridor stretching from Texas to the Dakotas and advanced plants in geothermal hot spots that could produce large amounts of electricity.
Second, we should begin the planning and construction of a unified national smart grid for the transport of renewable electricity from the rural places where it is mostly generated to the cities where it is mostly used. New high-voltage, low-loss underground lines can be designed with “smart” features that provide consumers with sophisticated information and easy-to-use tools for conserving electricity, eliminating inefficiency and reducing their energy bills. The cost of this modern grid $400 billion over 10 years pales in comparison with the annual loss to American business of $120 billion due to the cascading failures that are endemic to our current balkanized and antiquated electricity lines.
Third, we should help America’s automobile industry (not only the Big Three but the innovative new startup companies as well) to convert quickly to plug-in hybrids that can run on the renewable electricity that will be available as the rest of this plan matures. In combination with the unified grid, a nationwide fleet of plug-in hybrids would also help to solve the problem of electricity storage. Think about it: with this sort of grid, cars could be charged during off-peak energy-use hours; during peak hours, when fewer cars are on the road, they could contribute their electricity back into the national grid.
Fourth, we should embark on a nationwide effort to retrofit buildings with better insulation and energy-efficient windows and lighting. Approximately 40 percent of carbon dioxide emissions in the United States come from buildings and stopping that pollution saves money for homeowners and businesses. This initiative should be coupled with the proposal in Congress to help Americans who are burdened by mortgages that exceed the value of their homes.
Fifth, the United States should lead the way by putting a price on carbon here at home, and by leading the world’s efforts to replace the Kyoto treaty next year in Copenhagen with a more effective treaty that caps global carbon dioxide emissions and encourages nations to invest together in efficient ways to reduce global warming pollution quickly, including by sharply reducing deforestation.
Of course, the best way indeed the only way to secure a global agreement to safeguard our future is by re-establishing the United States as the country with the moral and political authority to lead the world toward a solution.
Looking ahead, I have great hope that we will have the courage to embrace the changes necessary to save our economy, our planet and ultimately ourselves.
In an earlier transformative era in American history, President John F. Kennedy challenged our nation to land a man on the moon within 10 years. Eight years and two months later, Neil Armstrong set foot on the lunar surface. The average age of the systems engineers cheering on Apollo 11 from the Houston control room that day was 26, which means that their average age when President Kennedy announced the challenge was 18.
This year similarly saw the rise of young Americans, whose enthusiasm electrified Barack Obama’s campaign. There is little doubt that this same group of energized youth will play an essential role in this project to secure our national future, once again turning seemingly impossible goals into inspiring success.
Al Gore, the vice president from 1993 to 2001, was the co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. He founded the Alliance for Climate Protection and, as a businessman, invests in alternative energy companies.