曼谷到芭提雅大巴:中国房地产泡沫开始泄气 China Property Bubble Starts To Deflate

2011年 06月 09日 09:48中国房地产泡沫开始泄气 评论(15)  中国房价多年来狂涨不止，如今，这个泡沫开始泄气了。

中国部分主要城市的住宅价格开始回落，一些不受欢迎的炒房行为受到抑制，但同时也让人越发觉得，中国经济增长的放缓速度可能快于预期，并可能会破坏全球增长前景。

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images重庆市的一处楼房建筑工地。房地产市场是中国经济过去20年非凡增长纪录的基础，房地产行业的状况对中国建筑、钢铁和水泥行业至关重要。精明的投资者和那些希望资金回报高于银行存款利息的普通中国人也十分青睐房地产投资。中国地方省市也依赖不断上涨的地价来为基础设施项目提供资金。

楼市价格下滑会冲击中国的工业和投资，削弱消费者支出。瑞士银行(UBS)的经济学家安德森(Jonathan Anderson)说，中国属于“房地产主导式经济”。据他估计，单是房地产建设这一项在中国2010年国内生产总值(GDP)中的比例就高达13%，是上世纪90年代的两倍。

世界银行(World Bank)多位经济学家周三在北京举行的新闻发布会上提醒说，房地产泡沫是中国面临的最大经济风险之一。

虽然中国的预期增长仍远高于其它主要经济体，但这一增长若出现任何下降，都可能会对全球经济造成影响。鉴于美国不冷不热的复苏和欧洲仍在持续的主权债务问题，全球经济目前更加依赖于中国的需求。

如果中国房地产市场放缓的步伐快于人们的预期，会对很多向中国大举出口的市场形成冲击。很多拉美和非洲经济体已转移了经济重心，开始向中国出口原材料，朝着满足中国需求的方向挺进，而很多西方消费品制造商如今也指望中国消费者有更富裕的感觉。同样，中国地方政府改善基础设施的计划对于卡特彼勒公司 (Caterpillar Inc.)等重型设备制造商来说有着非同小可的重要意义。

中国房地产市场的炽热需求曾帮助中国实现了如此宏伟的增长计划，但如今楼市需求开始减退。中国房地产咨询公司搜房(Soufun)的数据显示，5月中国平均房价同比上涨5.1%，涨幅较快速上涨的2009年和2010年有所放缓。

据渣打银行(Standard Chartered Bank)估计，到今年年底，大连、天津等中国二线城市可能会出现足够销售20个月的存量房，给房价带来“巨大”压力。渣打银行预计，中国很多城市的房价会下跌10%到20%。

市场研究公司龙洲经讯(Dragonomics)的分析师Rosealea Yao跟踪研究了中国九大城市的房产数据后发现，今年4月这些城市的房价同比下跌了4.9%。这九个城市的房价去年大涨了21.5%，2009年涨了约 10%，当时中国刚刚摆脱全球经济危机开始复苏，房价在2009年底前出现剧烈上涨。

很多分析师认为，一直显示房价呈小幅上涨势头的官方数据淡化了房价的减缓速度，因为中国政府可通过对开发商施压来影响统计数据。政府可根据自己希望什么样的数据，来让开发商停止或增加向市场投放高价值房产。

世界银行驻北京首席经济学家韩伟森(Ardo Hansson)周三说，中国应考虑进一步提高利率，控制物价，防止出现房地产和其它资产泡沫。他没有对当前房地产增速放缓是否会影响中国经济增长发表看法，但强调了房地产行业对中国经济的重要性，特别是对钢铁和水泥业有着重要意义。

中国房地产增速放缓在一定程度上带动了重要工业金属价格走低。现货铜价格自5月初以来已下跌了5%，至每吨人民币6.9万元(合10,647美元)左右，而2010年6月至今年3月，现货铜累计上涨34%。

自今年2月以来，主要钢铁生产商一直在削减产品价格。

AFP/Getty Images中国东部的安徽省合肥市，一位妇女骑车经过一片新建楼房。诚然，中国政府有关当局已经力图缓解房价上涨，因为他们担心通货膨胀失控可能会迫使他们对经济进行更严厉的整顿。政府官员面临着已经买不起房子的普通民众的普遍愤怒。待解答的问题是，政府是否能够以一种不会损害经济增长的方式逐渐降低房价。

中国建设银行董事长郭树清上周接受采访时说，从许多方面来看，房价确实很疯狂。他说，大城市的房价远远超出年轻夫妇的经济能力，按平均收入计算，他们可能需要省吃俭用20年或30年才能买得起。

从房价与市民收入的对比来看，北京位居世界最昂贵的房地产市场之列。按搜房网数据推算，2006年前几个月，北京一套新房的均价约为10万美元，相当于普通居民32年的可支配收入。到2011年，均价已涨至25万美元，翻了一倍多，但收入增幅却相对较小，这意味着，一个普通居民现在需要储蓄57年才能够支付房价。

自2010年1月开始，中国政府推出了多种措施抑制投机，其中包括将第二套房首付款比例由40%提高至60%，禁止房地产行业以外的国有企业投资地产， 11次上调银行存款准备金率，至21%，第三个措施在本质上就是减少银行的放贷量。

据上海房地产交易中心统计，上海4月份住房销售较1月份的1.75万套暴跌37%，至1.1万套。由于生意萧条，香港美联集团有限公司（Midland Holdings Ltd.）旗下的美联物业（Midland Realty）关闭了上海九个房地产办事处中的八个。美联深圳研究中心高级主任徐枫说，政府的限购政策对房屋买卖都有巨大影响，导致成交量逐渐减少。

据龙洲经讯统计，自今年年初开始，其追踪的九个城市的销售量下跌了一半左右。地产经纪人说，在北京这意味着房租上涨。链家地产团结湖分店经纪人张凯（音）说，销售量从2月以来跌了一半，小户型月租金6月升至约3000元人民币（460美元），5月为2500元（385美元）。团结湖是一个中产阶级聚集的繁华社区。他说，许多业主都不想卖，因为他们在等价格回涨。

北京其他地区的另一名经纪人说，政府要求购房者必须持有正式的在京居住证以及连续五年的纳税证明，这一规定抑制了房屋销售。他说，不过6万到7万元人民币（9200至10800美元）的贿赂就足以让市政府官员忽略这些要求。

房产市场放缓正值有证据表明中国的经济增长在减缓之际。上周，对采购经理人的两项调查显示中国制造业减缓。作为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体，中国经济第一季度较上年同期增长9.7%。5月底，随着政府继续收紧货币政策以对抗通胀，加上美国的进口需求减弱，高盛（Goldman Sachs）将其对中国第二季度的经济增幅预期从之前的8.8%下调至8%。

同样尚不明朗的是，中国经济官员是否能够逐步缓和增长，而不是造成经济崩溃。中国希望低成本住房建设的激增在一定程度上弥补高端房地产市场需求的减少。但批评人士说，地方政府已经越来越依赖于销售豪华项目建设用地的收入，需要对地方政府施压更大压力，要求其支持社会保障住房的开支。有些地方政府将现有房产重新划分为低收入保障房，而不是建设新的住房。

为低收入保障住房提供资金一直都是中央政府和地方政府分歧的一个根源，这导致保障房建设远远无法切实完成。北京CRU Group咨询公司分析师Li Bin说，中国规划的保障住房项目只有约60%投入了建设，很大程度上是因为钱是个大问题。

渣打集团（Standard Chartered）说，若建设量和房价跌得太多，中国政府可能会在今年晚些时候放宽对买房的限制。

哥伦比亚大学（Columbia University）驻北京经济学家肖耿说，中国经济就像一辆没有刹车的汽车，加油就跑得快，关掉油门就停下来。

瑞银经济学家汪涛说，她认为降价会是暂时现象，因为几乎没有其他选择的中国投资者会再次把钱投进房地产，地方政府也会推高他们卖给开发商的地皮价格。她预计房价会再涨三到五年。随后价格会大幅下跌，重创投资者、银行、建筑公司和其他工业领域。  After years of housing prices gone wild, China's property bubble is starting to deflate.

Residential prices are heading downward in some major cities, damping some undesired real-estate speculation but raising the prospect that the Chinese economy may slow more rapidly than anticipated and damage global growth prospects.

Real estate is a foundation of China's phenomenal growth record in the past two decades, and its health is crucial to China's construction, steel and cement sectors. Real estate is also a favored investment of sophisticated investors and ordinary Chinese who are looking to get better returns than bank deposits pay. Local municipalities and provinces depend on rising prices for land sales as well to fund infrastructure projects.

(This story and related background material will be available on The Wall Street Journal website, WSJ.com.)

A downturn in property and apartment prices would harm Chinese industry and investment, and crimp consumer spending. China is a 'housing-led economy,' says UBS economist Jonathan Anderson, who estimates that property construction alone accounted for 13% of gross domestic product in 2010, twice the share of the 1990s.

World Bank economists warned at a Beijing press briefing on Wednesday that a real-estate bubble was among the biggest economic risks China faces.

While China's anticipated growth is still well above that of other large economies, any reduction in growth could have global consequences. The global economy is now even more dependent on China for demand, given the tepid recovery in the U.S. and the continuing sovereign-debt problems in Europe.

If the Chinese housing market slows faster than people had expected, the impact would be felt in a number of markets that export heavily to China. Many Latin American and African economies have shifted their focus toward Chinese demand for their raw materials, and many Western makers of consumer goods now bank on Chinese consumers feeling wealthier. Similarly, plans by local Chinese governments to improve infrastructure loom large for heavy-equipment makers like Caterpillar Inc. (CAT).

The red-hot demand for Chinese housing that has fed such growth plans is now ebbing. Data from Soufun, a Beijing real-estate consultant, show average property prices in China in May rose 5.1% compared with a year earlier, a slowdown from rapid rises in 2009 and 2010.

Standard Chartered Bank estimates that China's so-called tier-two cities, such as Dalian and Tianjin, may have 20 months of housing inventory by year end, putting 'substantial' pressure on prices. Standard Chartered forecasts price cuts of 10% to 20% 'in many cities.'

Already, in nine major cities tracked by Rosealea Yao, an analyst at market-research firm Dragonomics, real-estate prices fell 4.9% in April from a year earlier. Last year, property prices in those nine cities rose 21.5%; in 2009, the increase was about 10%, as China started to recover from the global economic crisis, with much steeper increases toward the end of that year.

A number of analysts think official data, which have continued to show a slight rise in prices, understate the slowdown in housing prices as the government can affect the numbers by pressing developers to withhold or add high-value properties to the market depending on what it wants the data to show.

Ardo Hansson, lead economist at the World Bank's Beijing office, said Wednesday that China should consider boosting interest rates further to tame consumer prices and head off bubbles in housing and other assets. He didn't comment on whether the current real-estate slowdown would harm economic growth, but stressed the importance of the property sector to the Chinese economy, especially in such sectors as steel and cement.

Partly as a result of the Chinese real-estate slowdown, prices for key industrial metals have softened. Spot copper prices have lost 5% since early March, and have now fallen to around 69,000 yuan ($10,647) a ton after racking up 34% in gains between June 2010 and March this year.

Major steelmakers have been consistently cutting their product prices since February.

To be sure, Chinese government authorities have sought to slow the rise in housing prices amid fears that runaway inflation may force them to clamp down even harder on the economy. Officials face widespread anger from ordinary citizens who can no longer afford to buy homes. The unanswered question is whether the government can manage to reduce prices gradually in a way that won't undermine economic growth.

'In many ways, [real-estate] prices are really crazy,' said Guo Shuqing, chairman of China Construction Bank, in an interview last week. He says that the cost of apartments in major cities is well beyond the means of young couples, who would have to save 20 or 30 years, at average incomes, to afford to buy.

Beijing has one of the most expensive real-estate markets anywhere in the world relative to the income of its citizens. Calculations based on Soufun data show that in the opening months of 2006 an average-price new apartment in China's capital would cost around $100,000--the equivalent of 32 years' disposable income for the average resident. By 2011, the average price had more than doubled to $250,000, but relatively modest increases in income mean it would now take 57 years of saving for the average resident to cover the cost.

Since January 2010, the Chinese government has introduced a number of measures to stem speculation, including boosting the down-payment requirements on mortgages for second homes to 60% from 40%, barring state-owned enterprises outside the real-estate sector from investing in property, and boosting the minimum amount of cash banks must hold in reserve 11 times, to 21%--essentially reducing the money banks can lend.

In Shanghai, apartment sales tumbled 37% in April, to 11,000, compared with 17,500 units in January, according to the Shanghai Real Estate Trading Center. With business so slack, Midland Realty, a unit of Hong Kong-based Midland Holdings Ltd., closed eight of its nine real-estate offices in Shanghai. 'The government's policy on purchase restrictions had a huge impact on both selling and buying, leading to transactions drying up,' said Xu Feng, senior director of Midland's development center in Shenzhen.

According to Dragonomics, sales volume in the nine cities it tracks fell by about half since the start of the year. In Beijing, that has meant a rise in rental prices, say real-estate agents. Zhang Kai, a real-estate agent at Home Link in Tuanjiehu, a bustling middle-class neighborhood, said the number of sales had dropped by half since February and monthly rental prices for small apartments jumped to about CNY3,000 ($460) in June from CNY2,500 ($385) a month earlier. Many apartment owners don't want to sell, he said, because they are waiting for prices to turn around.

One real-estate agent elsewhere in Beijing said regulations that required buyers to have formal Beijing residence and proof of having paid taxes for five years straight were crimping sales. He said, though, that bribes of between CNY60,000 and CNY70,000 ($9,200 and $10,800) were sufficient to convince city officials to ignore the requirements.

The housing slowdown comes at a time when there is evidence China's growth is slowing. Last week, two surveys of purchasing managers showed a slowing of manufacturing activity. China, the world's second-largest economy after the U.S., grew at 9.7% in the first quarter from a year earlier. In late May, Goldman Sachs lowered its estimate of Chinese second-quarter growth to 8% from its previous estimate of 8.8% as the government continues to tighten monetary policy to fight inflation and import demand from the U.S. weakens.

It also isn't yet clear whether Chinese economic officials can ease growth gradually rather than create a crackup. China is counting on a surge of low-cost housing construction to compensate somewhat for reduced demand at the high end of the real-estate market. But critics say that local governments, who have grown reliant on revenue from land sales for luxury projects, will need to be pushed hard to support spending on social housing. Some have been reclassifying existing property as low-income housing rather than building new apartment houses.

Funding for low-income housing has traditionally been a source of dispute between central and local governments, leading such projects to be far less reliably completed. 'Only about 60% of planned social housing projects in China have been built, largely because money is a big problem,' said Li Bin, analyst with the Beijing-based CRU Group consultancy.

Standard Chartered says the Chinese government may ease enforcement of ownership rules later in the year if construction and prices fall too much.

'The Chinese economy is like a car with no brake,' says Columbia University economist Xiao Geng in Beijing. 'You go fast by adding gas. You stop by shutting off the gas.'

UBS economist Tao Wang says she thinks the price decline will prove to be short-lived as Chinese investors, with few other options, will once again pour money into real estate and as local governments push up the price of land they sell developers. Real-estate prices will climb for another three to five years, she estimates. A sharp fall in prices then would batter investors, banks, construction firms and other industrial sectors.