中国艰难的抗通胀之战China slow to silence roaring tiger of inflation

Wang Qishan, Chinese vice-premier, this week became the latest senior official to identify the fight against inflation as his government’s most important task this year.

中国副总理王岐山本周成为又一名将遏制通胀列为中国政府今年首要任务的高级官员。

“The most pressing problem we face right now is the problem of inflation,” Mr Wang said in an interview on The Charlie Rose Show in the US on Monday. “In order to do this, we have to use monetary policy, fiscal policy and at the same time economic restructuring,” he said.

“我们现在面临的最紧迫问题是通胀问题，”王岐山周一在美国电视节目《查理•罗斯访谈录》(Charlie Rose Show)中表示。“为此，我们必须使用货币政策、财政政策，同时还要推进经济转型，”他说。

Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, used a more colourful turn of phrase recently when he described inflation as a tiger that, once freed from its cage, is nearly impossible to put back.

中国总理温家宝近期使用了更加形象的比喻，他把通胀形容为一只老虎，如果放出来就很难再关进去。

But the policy measures taken by Beijing in its fight against inflation do not reflect the kind of life and death struggle suggested by comments from the country’s leaders.

但是，北京方面在遏制通胀方面采取的政策措施，并没有体现中国领导人言论中暗示的那种生死攸关的斗争。

For one thing, Beijing is encouraging double-digit wage increases – of up to 40 per cent a year in some places – as a way of reducing the country’s wealth gap and shifting the country away from over-reliance on cheap, labour-intensive manufacturing industries.

首先，北京方面正鼓励两位数的加薪（某些地方高达每年40%），以求缩小中国的贫富差距，减轻中国对劳动密集型廉价制造产业的过度依赖。

The government has also allowed several increases in tightly regulated energy prices in recent months, which feed directly into higher prices of most other consumer items.

近月来，政府还允许受到严格管制的能源价格数次上调——这将推高其它多数消费品的价格。

According to official data released on Wednesday, annual consumer inflation in April was 5.3 per cent, moderating only slightly from a nearly three-year high of 5.4 per cent in March. Both figures were higher than many analysts had expected and indicated that government efforts to rein in surging prices have not yet had a major impact.

根据周三发布的官方数据，4月份中国消费价格指数(CPI)同比上涨5.3%，仅略低于3月份5.4%的近三年高位。两个数字都高于许多分析师的预期，且说明中国政府抑制价格上涨的各项努力尚未产生重大影响。

There are a number of reasons why Beijing’s actions are a lot less forceful than the rhetoric of senior officials would suggest.

北京方面的动作力度之所以远远小于高层言论所暗示的程度，有几个原因。

Firstly, analysts say there is no real consensus over the actual causes of inflation among the various government departments responsible for economic policymaking.

首先，分析师们表示，负责制定经济政策的各个政府部门对通胀的真正原因并没有形成共识。

For example, the central bank and banking regulator argue inflation is a direct result of the huge liquidity overhang created by the credit-fuelled, post-financial crisis stimulus package, which has been described by some economists as the greatest ever financial and monetary easing in history.

例如，中国央行和银行业监管机构提出，通胀是全球金融危机爆发后出台的刺激方案造成的流动性明显过剩的直接后果。一些经济学家称，这一由信贷推动的刺激方案是有史以来规模最大的财政和货币放松举措。

Other government agencies, such as the powerful National Development and Reform Commission, argue inflation is a result of transport and infrastructure bottlenecks as well as profiteering and price manipulation. Until recently, many Chinese officials also blamed loose monetary policy in the US and elsewhere and argued inflation was mostly being imported.

其它政府机构（如掌握实权的国家发改委）辩称，通胀是运输和基础设施瓶颈、以及投机和价格操纵的结果。直到不久以前，许多中国官员还把国内通胀怪罪到美国及其它国家的宽松货币政策头上，辩称通胀主要是输入型的。

With no clear consensus on the causes or the severity of the problem, China’s leaders are trying a wide range of policy initiatives without fully committing themselves to any of them.

在各方对问题的原因或严重性缺乏明确共识的情况下，中国领导人正在尝试广泛的政策举措，同时避免全力支持其中任何一项。

While Beijing is reducing the availability of credit in the economy, mostly through direct orders to Chinese banks to slow lending, the government is wary of damping growth too much, as many believe it did in the early part of 2008, when inflation spiked above 8 per cent.

尽管北京方面正在削减经济中信贷的可获得性（主要是通过直接下令各银行减缓放贷），但政府也担心过度抑制增长。许多人相信，在2008年上半年通胀飙升至8%以上时，中国政府出台的政策曾过度抑制增长。

“In hindsight Chinese policymakers overtightened in 2008 just before the world fell apart,” said Stephen Green, chief China economist at Standard Chartered. “They are clearly tightening monetary policy, but overall growth is already slowing and there is a lot of tension between those arguing now is not the time to overdo things and those who want to act more aggressively to tackle inflation.”

“事后看来，中国政策制定者在2008年全球危机爆发前夕收紧过度了，”渣打 (Standard Chartered)首席中国经济学家王志浩(Stephen Green)表示。“他们现在显然在收紧货币政策，但整体增长已经在放缓。而且有人提出现在不是行动过头的时候，还有人则希望采取更加积极的行动对付通胀，两者间的关系十分紧张。”

Since last October, the central bank has raised interest rates four times and increased the proportion of deposits banks must hold in reserve eight times.

自去年10月以来，中国央行已4次提高利率，8次上调银行存款准备金率。

But the average weighted annual lending rate offer- ed by Chinese banks at the end of March was 6.91 per cent, well below 8.72 per cent at the end of March 2008, according to Standard Chartered figures, indicating that monetary conditions are still much looser than during the last serious bout of inflation.

但是根据渣打的数据，今年3月底，中国各银行的一年期贷款加权平均利率为6.91%，远低于2008年3月的8.72%，说明货币条件仍比上一轮通胀严重上扬时期宽松得多。

At that time, in late 2007 and early 2008, Beijing introduced strict direct price controls on a wide range of products but now the government is relying more on moral suasion and scare tactics to deter price rises of key consumer items.

当时（2007年末至2008年初），北京方面对大量产品实行了严格的直接价格管制，但这一次，政府更多地是依靠道德劝说和恐吓战术来阻止关键消费品的涨价。

Last Friday, the NDRC fined Unilever RMB2m ($308,000) for suggesting to Chinese media that it might raise detergent and soap prices, saying the Anglo-Dutch consumer goods giant had “intensified inflationary expectations among consumers” and “seriously disturbed market order.”

上周五，国家发改委对联合利华(Unilever)罚款200万元人民币（合30.8万美元），理由是该公司对中国媒体表示，它可能上调洗衣粉和肥皂价格。发改委称，这家英荷消费品巨擘“增强了消费者涨价预期……严重扰乱了市场秩序”。

Analysts describe the fine as an example of “killing the chicken to scare the monkey”, and believe the government is more likely to use such public shock tactics than direct price controls, especially considering growing evidence the economy is starting to slow.

分析师们形容这项处罚是典型的“杀鸡儆猴”之举，并相信，与直接价格管制相比，中国政府更有可能采用此类公开震慑战术，尤其是考虑到有越来越多的证据表明，中国经济正开始放缓。

“China is entering an awkward phase now where inflation will stay higher than 5 per cent in the coming months but growth will continue to decelerate,” Mr Green said. “The question is how fast the deceleration will be.”

“中国正进入一个棘手的阶段，通胀在未来几个月仍将高于5%，但增长将继续减速，”王志浩表示。“问题在于减速会有多快。”