白日梦中的美国人An America lost in fantasy must recover its dream

As it says goodbye and good riddance to 2010, is America also saying so long to depres-  sion, both the economic and the psychic varieties? Is double-dip now just another way to get your hot fudge sundae? Riding the Metro North commuter train from Pleasantville to Grand Central Station on the last weekend before Christmas, you’d certainly suppose so. The consumer confidence index had been rising for two straight months now and most of it seemed to be on board, wallets bursting to get in on the action. Heavy-set thirtysomethings on parole from suburbia, fists popping cans of Bud Lite, boomed to all who wanted to hear (Ben Bernanke maybe?) that they were “gonna do some serious shopping DAMAGE dude!” In the month before Christmas Grand Central turns into a retail bazaar, and to the strains of jingle tills vendors selling silk scarves, Thai and Polish jewellery, hammered leather goods and fancy stationery were all doing brisk trade to elbow-working crowds.

在美国说着“谢天谢地”告别2010年之际，它是否也在和经济衰退与心理沮丧说再见？二次探底如今是否只是过上甜蜜生活的另一条途径？在圣诞节前最后一个周末乘坐纽约北郊铁路(Metro North)通勤列车从普莱森特维尔到纽约中央车站(Grand Central Station)的你肯定会这么认为。消费者信心指数已经连续两个月上扬，而回归的信心似乎大半都在那趟列车上，人们揣着鼓鼓的钱包，准备加入购物的行列。身材魁梧、30来岁、好不容易出趟门的郊区居民，用拳头打开一听又一听百威清啤，冲着所有愿意听他们说话的人（本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)大概算一个？）嚷嚷着：“哥们，让我们好好采购一番！”圣诞节前的一个月，纽约中央车站变成了集贸市场。在摩肩接踵的人群中，伴着铃儿响叮当的旋律，兜售丝巾、泰国和波兰珠宝、锤制皮件以及别致文具的小商贩们生意非常兴隆。

Is this Manhattan or is this America? Over the West Side Highway, a habitually witty storage company billboard proclaims – against its own self-interest, you might think – “NY. Where people are openly gay and secretly Republican. Why leave?” But the US lame duck Senate, in one of a series of valedictory superquacks, has just enacted the repeal of the “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy that prohibited lesbians and gays in the military from declaring their sexual orientation. There was some hurrumphing amidst the Marines but a poll of the public showed a majority of those asked believing military morale would improve, not deteriorate as a result.

这是曼哈顿特有的场面，还是整个美国都是如此？在西岸高速旁，一块向来诙谐的存储公司的广告牌上写着（你也许会认为与它自身的利益不符）：“纽约，同性恋可以公开身份，而共和党要掩盖身份的地方。为什么要离开？”但美国的“跛脚鸭”参议院刚刚颁布了一项废止令，将废除禁止同性恋军人公开性取向的“不问不说”政策——是为其卸任前的一系列大声喧哗之一。海军陆战队里传出一些不满的声音，但民意调查显示，大多数受访者都认为军队士气将因此改善，而不是恶化。

Ride the train in the opposite direction and rosy scenario, even in New York, gives way to rust-bucket gloom. Upstate towns such as Poughkeepsie and Buffalo have unemployment rates not seen since the war. One in seven adults lives below the official poverty line; for children it is one in three, a truly shaming statistic. Life for millions in burgered America goes on only through food banks and food stamps. Seventy per cent of the population have a close friend or family member who has lost a job. We are still living in 3D America: desolation, devastation, destitution.

但如果乘坐列车朝相反的方向进发，即使是在纽约，瑰丽的景象也会让位于锈迹斑斑的阴郁场景。波启浦夕(Poughkeepsie)和水牛城等北部边远城市的失业率达到了战后未曾遇见的水平。每7个成年人就有一个生活在官方的贫困线以下；儿童的比例更是高达三分之一——真是令人汗颜。美国数百万夹心层人口全凭粮食银行和食物券维生。70%的人口有亲朋好友失业。我们仍然生活在3D的美国：破败(desolation)、创伤(devastation)、贫困(destitution)。

But look on the bright side! Barack Obama, we are told by the pragmatists, has just taken his presidency back by doing an extension swap with the Republicans. They have agreed to extend unemployment benefits while he has extended Bush-era tax cuts for the richest 2 per cent of the country. So the poor catch a break while the rich catch a flight to the Caribbean.

不过我们应该往好的方面看！务实主义者告诉我们，巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)刚刚与共和党达成了一项延期互换协议，从而挽救了他的总统任期。共和党同意延长失业救济期限，而奥巴马同意延长小布什时代为最富2%人口减税的政策。于是，穷人松了一口气，富人搭飞机去了加勒比海。

But that’s OK because, as the pontificators of the rightwing media insist, it’s only deluded bleeding-heart liberals who persist in thinking that massive and growing income inequality is a bad thing when why-oh-why can’t they understand it is actually the engine of national prosperity! The farther apart the haves and the have-nots get, the more loaded the plutocrats are with tax-cuts, loopholes and tax-free inheritances, the more likely they are to give job-hiring business some of that good old trickle-down.

但是这没什么关系，因为正如右翼媒体上那些侃侃而谈的人所坚持的那样，只有受到蛊惑、“忧国忧民”的自由派才顽固地认为，不断扩大的贫富差距是件坏事——为什么，哦，为什么他们不明白，这才是国家繁荣的引擎！富人与穷人之间的差距越大，阔佬们借由减税、漏洞和免税遗产变得越有钱，他们就越有可能让招聘业享受到一些美好的涓滴效应。

But they haven’t and they don’t. Not where it counts anyway, in the unemployment rate, even when the stock market is up nearly 90 per cent on its low of March 2009. Cue up a touch more quantitative easement, in the shape of that big bad bond buy. This has become target number one for the incoming victorious Republicans of the 112th Congress, who have roundly denounced it as an irresponsible enabler of inflation. Hang on a mo, you say, what inflation? It’s been running at record lows and shows absolutely no sign of going in any other direction. But this is just a sign of what is in store for American governance in the wacky world of the 112th House; reality taking a back seat to self-reinforcing collectively chanted mantras against which the facts make little or no impression. The dominant reality for the Republicans will be who can recite the nostrums fiercely enough to establish themselves as the true voice of the Tea Party; the cant of the disingenuous directed at the aggravation of the credulous. Instead of an honest look at the chastening of America – whether in military overreach or corporate irresponsibility – their hope is for a perpetuated national tantrum all the way to a foot-stomping, red-in-the-face, shrieking and bellowing election in 2012.

但他们没有，而且不会这么做。至少在事关重大的失业率方面没有体现出来，即便股市已经较2009年3月的低点上涨了90%。为再多一些定量宽松做好准备吧，其形式是大规模的不良债券购买。这已成为即将胜利接管第112届国会的共和党的头号目标，他们予以了严厉谴责，称之为一种抬高通胀的不负责任的做法。等一下，你会说，什么通胀？通胀率一直处于创纪录的低位，而且丝毫没有朝任何其他方向发展的迹象。但这不过表明了癫狂的第112届国会都有哪些治理美国的招数；现实让位于自我增强的集体诵念的经文，事实对它们几乎产生不了任何影响。对共和党而言，最重要的现实将是，谁能够以足够旺盛的精力来诵读那些骗人的妙策，使其成为代表茶叶党的真实声音。居心叵测的伪善之言旨在让轻信者更加轻信。共和党不是正视美国受到的申斥——无论是军力的过度扩张还是企业的不负责任——而是寄希望于国民持久的怒火一直延续下去，在2012年造就一场捶胸顿足、面红耳赤、尖叫不断、咆哮连连的大选。

Sadder, wiser, those of us gathered on the Washington Mall in the freezing morn of Mr Obama’s inauguration can see now that of all the brave, unsustainable hopes uttered by the new young president, the most unsustainable of all turned out to be his Biblical plea to “put away childish things”. He might as well have tried to legislate the word “dream” out of American public discourse. Dreams? Reality? It’s not even close, is it?

我们这些在奥巴马宣誓就职的那个寒冷刺骨的清晨，曾聚集在华盛顿国家大草坪上的人，如今愈加伤感，也愈加明智了。我们现在可以看出，这位年轻的新总统说出的所有那些勇敢而不可实现的希望中，最不可成立的就是那句源自圣经的请求：“告别孩子气”。他莫不如试着通过立法将“梦想”一词逐出美国的公众话语。梦想？现实？两者甚至搭不上边，不是吗？

Whether fantasy will prevail over factuality, adolescent wishful thinking over maturity, will be the great political motif of the next few years. The omens are not auspicious. People who dwell in fiscal Neverland are about to be appointed to oversee the very institutions they wish never were. Thus, Representative Spencer Bachus of Alabama, the chair of the House Committee charged with implementing the Dodd-Frank financial reforms, tells us he thinks regulators should “serve” banks. The gold-standard nostalgic Ron Paul (a very peculiar position for a populist) who has published a book urging the abolition of the Federal Reserve System, will now, as chair of the committee on monetary policy, be in a position to move central banking back to the days when JPMorgan had to ride to the rescue of a meltdown of the proportion of 1907-8. And at the heart of this thumb-sucking juvenilia is the playpen fantasy that you can do something significant about the deficit without ever reducing military spending, cutting entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security (not a great vote catcher among the silverhaired marching troops of the Tea Party) or raising revenue. Just cut discretionary spending, redirect the odd earmark or zero fund that nest of socialism, public broadcasting – and, hey presto, the budget is balanced.

幻想是否会压倒现实，青春期的一厢情愿是否会压倒成熟，将成为未来几年的重大政治主题。预兆并不乐观。居住在财政梦幻岛上的人对于监督他们希望从不曾存在的机构将大失所望。因此，负责实施多德-弗兰克(Dodd-Frank)金融改革的众议院委员会主席、阿拉巴马州议员斯宾塞•巴赫斯(Spencer Bachus)告诉我们，他认为监管者应该为银行“服务”。作为货币政策委员会主席，对金本位充满怀旧情绪的罗恩•保罗(Ron Paul)（对于一位民粹主义者而言，这种立场可谓非常奇怪），现在将有机会让央行体系回到1907-08年摩根大通(JPMorgan)不得不出手拯救市场崩盘的日子。保罗出版了一本力劝美国废除联邦储备体系的书。这本幼稚读物的核心是一种婴儿般的幻想，即美国政府不必减少军费开支，削减联邦医疗保险计划(Medicare)和社会保障等权益（这可不是吸引茶叶党中银发斗士投票的好主意），或提高政府收入，就能够对赤字大有作为。只要削减可随意支配的开支，改变庇护着社会主义和公共广播的微薄专用资金或零基金的用途——然后，变！政府预算平衡了。

There is, of course, the odd Republican such as Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin with the balls and the brains to face facts, who actually has the temerity to say that if conservatives are serious about the deficit they must consider military reductions or the electoral poison of Medicare cuts and Social Security postponements. Good luck on that one, chum.

当然，也有像威斯康星州众议员保罗•瑞安(Paul Ryan)这样特立独行的共和党人，他们有勇气和头脑直面事实。事实上，他甚至大胆到敢于指出，如果保守派诚心诚意削减赤字，就必须考虑削减军费，或是缩减Medicare规模和推迟社保发放这样的选举毒药。老伙计，祝你好运。

Whatever else we might now think of the 44th President of the United States, no one supposes him dumb. In all likelihood, he and Michelle will raise a glass beneath the starry skies of Oahu on New Years Eve, toast 2011 and mean it. A basketful of legislative victories – from the Start treaty to medical cover for chronically ill 9/11 volunteers – has suddenly positioned him as the can-do President against the nay-sayers of the new House. And while Mr Obama knows full well the measure of Democratic unhappiness, he also can see the coming divisions of his enemies: between pie-in-the-sky tax cutters and true deficit hawks; between military trimmers and Big USA maximalists; between Tea Party tribunes such as the sublimely named champion of all things corporate Jim de Mint and wild-eyed libertarians such as Pa and Son Paul; between the oligarchs who still run the party, such as Karl Rove, and the mavericks who detest them, such as Sarah Palin.

无论我们现在对于美国第44任总统还有什么看法，没有人认为他是愚蠢的。在新年前夜，他十有八九会与妻子米歇尔(Michelle)在瓦胡岛的星空下，为2011年举杯祝福，而且情真意切。在立法方面满筐的胜利果实——从《削减战略武器条约》(Start)到覆盖长期患病的9/11志愿者的医疗法案——使他突然间成为了一位敢作敢为的总统，相比之下，新一届国会似乎都是些只会唱反调的家伙。而且，尽管奥巴马完全清楚民主党的不快程度，他也能看到敌人即将发生的内讧——空中画饼的减税倡导者和真正的赤字鹰派人士之间；主张裁军者和信奉美国独大的极致主义者之间；吉姆•德明特(Jim DeMint)这样的茶叶党领袖（他被光荣地誉为一切企业事物的拥护者）和保罗父子（罗恩•保罗和他的儿子兰德•保罗(Rand Paul)——译者注）这样天真的自由论者之间；卡尔•洛夫(Karl Rove)等仍然控制着共和党的寡头政客和萨拉•佩林(Sarah Palin)等憎恶他们的异端之间。

Mr Obama’s temptation will be to stand back and let it all play out, as he has done so many times before, with the steady thrum of a recovery whispering “take it easy, boss” in his ear. But he owes the long-suffering, still-suffering, country more. He owes it the truth, delivered in such a way that Americans might yet feel that absorbing its seriousness is not the bar to but the condition of their collective reinvigoration. He has an opportunity to deliver that truth in the State of the Union speech; a moment in which he can still reboot America and re-make its politics once again. For what it’s worth, I’m ready to put money on a bet he will.

奥巴马将非常希望作壁上观，就像之前曾多次做过的那样，任由他们尽情演绎，因为经济的持续复苏一直在他耳边呢喃：“别紧张，老板。”但是他欠长期受苦、现在仍在受苦的美国人民更多。他欠他们一个真相，在传递这个真相时，他应该让美国民众感受到，接受这个真相的严峻程度并不是他们集体恢复活力的障碍，而是必要条件。他有机会在发表《国情咨文》演讲时传递出这个真相，在那个时刻，他仍可以重振美国，重塑美国政治。不管结果怎样，我愿意打赌他会这么做。

The writer is an FT contributing editor

本文作者是英国《金融时报》特约编辑。