杨馥宇吕博熠接吻视频:Comments on Unrest in China: A dangerous year...

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Here the Economist goes again. Hoping the current regime will just topple and be replaced with a neo-liberal "democracy" that sells out the country to western corporate and financial interests (a la Latin America and the middle east).

The economist has no idea that the current Chinese government is as good as it gets. If the current government were to be over thrown in a "democratic" revolution, expect a far more populist government that is much more hostile to the west. There is alot of anger in the street about how China repeatedly gets shafted by Japan and the West in a global system that benefit the few at the expanse of the many. If these were the people in charge. You can kiss any stability in Asia good buy.

It’s a puzzlement! Or is it?

Why major Chinese language media (including but not just inside China) report Western discontents, riots, strikes, mass violence, million persons demonstrations and events like OWS in the world as a matter fact-ly in passing usually without rendering views against their governments or using undue headlines, whereas major Western media tend to see every darn queue of discontent in China as a field day for analyses, second guessing, misleading headlines of sensationalism and goading of the government?

For those who read Chinese, an article today with following link offers a view of the matter.

http://mil.news.sina.com.cn/2012-01-30/1148681081.html

(and you can get or buy English translation from the site too, I think.)

China will obviously be vilified by the western media for millions of reasons. Yes, these problems do exist there and the Government is trying to keep it under wraps..Now the west is wary of China mainly because they perceive it as a sense of violation of freedom of human expression and the exertion of more control than is the norm (the norm set according to western values again). China is deep-rooted in its own cultural values which precede any western country's. And China knows this and is doing a pretty decent job of running its country on its own terms. There is a lesson to be learnt here for other countries.

@Mr. Wong January 30th, 10:00

“My Westerner friends,…
==

Er, “Wong” you call yourself?

All of your posts so far have been nothing about bashing and no doubt readers are sick and tired of it. None of them, even for negative lashing, give the slightest hint that you know anything about China.

They revealed to me and others I am sure, with a high degree of likelihood, that you are but some disguise from a non-Chinese, possibly from south Asia.

I am not asking you to gain any better understanding of China, but please do check with facts before your bashing, so that they may sound a little more sane or credible, or at least quit using a Chinese sounding name taking readers for fool. You hear?

Which year isn't it dangerous in China ?

It really surprises me that so many riots and strikes have happened in China in recent years. I haven’t notice that on the media before.
The top leaders are now more prudent than before because of the coming election in November, 2012. The new leaders need to establish a good image in front of citizens. The former leaders need to accomplish their fulfillment beautifully so that they won’t be complained by the later generations.
The whole situation of China is unease both of the economy and the politics. Lots of export industry and private enterprises went bankrupt in 2011 because of the decreasing demand of foreign countries and the lack of capital for small companies. Thus the unemployment problem is inevitable for the whole country. The problem related to the interest of ordinary people would most easily cause unrest.
There is no doubt that the power of weibo is strong, not only because the users’ number is huge but also because it is a platform that users can speak relatively free. But it is not right to use key words to delete the tweets that would make the leaders loss image or even endanger their official positions. Once things happen, the better solution is to admit them and take measures to solve them, which would arouse less complaints from the bottom.
Finally, I want to say something about the corruption of Chinese officials. This is a very severe problem facing China now. It is not an easy task to figure out the complex relationship between the venal officials. The money should’ve been used to develop our country and promote the welfare of the citizens is taken into the private pockets of corrupted officials and the amount is huge. We need to let the money functions in the way it ought to be.

Every time I read these articles on China I almost feel the editors at TE, when writing these articles, have their fingers crossed wishing "Oh I hope this protest will lead to greater unrest and collapse the government,I hope that protest will lead to greater unrest and collapse the government. Oh just please collapse, please collapse"

When your economy is based on 300% output of global demand, it will catch up to you eventually.

The same can be said of all Asian export economies. Mercantilism can only give you an image of prosperity, the house of cards will eventually fall as S.Korea is about to find out in their ship building industry.

Most of the Chinese people are honest, hard working, and decent There are several problems in China:

1. Corruption: Many Chinese government officials are corrupted, that cause the inequality in the society.

2. Hukou system: They are millions after millions people in big city (Beijing, Shanghai) can not have residence, their kids can not go to local school, can not get social benefits.

3. Banking: All banks owned by government, the interest rate is set by government, so, people save money in the bank, get 0.5% interest rate, and these banks give loans to big government enterprises, such as Petro China for 4% interest rate. On the mean time, if you want to borrow money from friends, the interest rate is 20%, 30%, 40% up to 150%

4. One Child policy: The rich and powerful can have many kids, the huge bureaucracy in every street watch who is pregnant and force abortion for the ordinary citizens.

5. Medical: There is no Medicare, you just suffer or die, if you are sick and you don’t have money. Hospital will ask tens of thousands before they accept you into hospital.

6. No moral: Liars are everywhere, cheating is common practice. Many people try to rip you off every time, worse than the western countries

.

There's something happening here.
What it is ain't exactly clear.

I think living in USA and Europe now are much more dangerous. Especially USA where all the street gangs own guns. George Soros already said this year USA will have mass riot.

China at least has PLA to maintain security and Chinese people are not rioters and looters.

The Arab Spring revolutions were triggered by a number of conditions.

Degree educated young-people, angry at the lack of opportunity.
Internet based communication, allowing free-speech and dissent to spread.
A heavy-handed state, unwilling to change or compromise.

These led to violent uprisings and demands for democratic reform.

China seems to be facing an identical set of circumstances.

The Chinese bomb will soon explode as the Red Army stops killing the citizens to enforce the leadership desires. Hopefully, the citizens will enjoy freedom of expression and association and much less corruption and oppression than under Red Army Communism.

In 2012, Hu Jing-tao and Wen Jia-bao will begin to hand over power to the next-generation Chinese Communist Party (CCP). After two months, In general, these officers, scheduled to start controlling China during the 18th meeting of central committee, have very dexterous abilities to expand the dragon’s big temple and reshuffle the various pedigrees in Chinese inland. Both of faction in the fifth, including princeling party’s Xi Jin-ping and Communist Youth League’s Li Ke-qiang, own their experienced bureaucracy to walk on stage. Also, both have strong network of interaction in each province, seen as support from the senior and younger party members. Furthermore, Xi and Li’s intelligent way to lead and management is indeed enough to qualifies these two as Jiang Ze-min’s successors in 2003-2004. According to Wikileak, these two and the surrounding Wang Yang, Li Yuan-tsaou and Bo Xi-lai have nothing to do with corruption although princeling party was once questioned.

The last change of Beijing’s power occurred in 2003, also seen as the first peaceful transition of Chinese regime from Jiang Ze-min to Hu Jing-tao. Both of Jiang and Hu are appointed or set to sit the seat by Deng Xiao-ping. When the programme nearly finished, coincidentally, the former prime minister Zhao Zi-yang died in his Beijing’s house. At that time, with the full handover of China’s regime, many magazines like TIME posted their predict of Chinese 5-year future and the information which they secretly got or bought. Zhao’s death let this time’s handover impressed. Almost of these editorial referred to Zhao’s death as the requiem of reform, inferring that Hu might take some measures to exercise more democratic policy and announce the anti-separation law (not just for Taiwan).

On average, Hu did fewer than predicted and couldn’t work efficient policy, although Hu put forward the direction, “scientific policy”. In Hu’s tenure, Yangtz River’s construction near Chongqing started helping offering electricity, Hu being the heading engineer due to his profession. In addition, 2008’s Beijing Olympic Game reflected the stronger power of Beijing while Hu smoothly re-elected and watched ping-pong game because he joined ping-pong school team as ping-pong diplomacy flourished in U.S -China. In his second term, Wen rather than Hu showed more in front of the cinema. The main policy was to hold the 8-10% high economic growth. Basically, Hu-Wen system works OK by comparison with the 2000’s circumstance. But the connection, between the senior or the younger and Hu himself, becomes weak when it comes to the handover of Beijing’s regime. So does the connection between the Chinese ordinary and central government. Therefore, many opposite rallies have a chance to protest more and more.

Nowadays, the salary and food price are the critical factor of whether China can keep stable. So do many of other Asian countries’ but less than that of China. Besides, the unstable factor results of Taiwan’s enterprises more apparently due to the employee’s unsatisfied emotion toward the speed of increasing salary. And these kinds of protestors usually tried to mimic Taiwanese including mass rally, offer of their so-called reasonable Renminbi number and the threat to the host of factory or finance concerned. As this Economist’s essay described, almost of serious protest or rally gather in Guangdong, but some of them aim at Taiwanese (for their money) rather than Communist Party (for being an officer). For example, as Li Ke-qiang told me last month, Wang Yang once warned Foxconn’s Guo Tai-min (Terry Guo) because of the worker’s thoughts or the measures. Really, more and more Taiwanese are unwelcomed in Guangdong and the coastal provinces, also bringing the unsteady environment.

As a whole, the fifth generation has more experiences and abilities to avoid the big rally of 1989 Tienanmen's kind for their characteristic and policy of good mechanism. Whether this regime can go forward, continuously and steadily is to know the accord or conflict between the two biggest faction (from the top) and to survey what the contemporary people want (from the lowest). By this standard, Xi, who own the massive social network around China among various circles, including entertainment concerned (owing to his wife Pen Li-yuan), and Li, who has the high doctor degree of Peking University and usually exercise logically strategic policy (sometimes viewed as tea table by me), can play the important role in the world in this decade. The rest is to let people know the willingness and clear direction in this tenure so that China is still the generator or propeller of the world beneficially, although Chinese people have some question of Zhao Zi-yang’s concern.

It’s a “miracle” that China has managed to achieve so much economically and socially in such a short span of 30 years of opening up and reform for such a large population from such backwardness and poverty out of nearly 200 years of chaos and destruction. It is truly unprecedented in human history.

But for all these successes there is no mystery in China’s development under the aegis of CCP leadership. The central government run the gamut of state governance in a self checking approach akin to a sustainable time process based on the engineering theory of automation with negative feedbacks, otherwise know as “socialism with Chinese characteristics” when all local peculiarities are factored in.

Such a system will mitigate any major risk of dire consequences to the nation, but not all relatively minor problems can be completely filtered out as the state machine moves forward. These problems (discontents, abuses, corruptions here and there) so surfaced are then the responsibility of various levels and branches of government and agencies accordingly toward the goal to build and maintain a harmonious society.

It hasn’t been easy, and sure, problems such as “detailed” in this Economist article probably happen practically everyday and workers are entitled to legal strike under Chinese law for instance. But they are by no means the concern that the sky is falling in China. This article need not and should not highlight these problems out of focus and out of proportion as it has.

The author is reminded that half a century ago in 1959, the US President Eisenhower ordered troops to break up a long strike by steel workers in America in Washington DC, and US President Regan busted a legal strike by air traffic controllers in 1982. Interestingly, neither President had made the year 1959 or 1982 more dangerous than other years.

According to China Daily, Chinese GDP for 2011 was RMB 47,156.4 billion or US$7.45 trillion at current market exchange rate. Surprisingly though Chinese economy is not as foreign trade dependent as many would have feared. With total export of $1898.6 in 2011, China’s foreign trade dependency is about 25% of GDP in 2011. This compares to Japan’s 33% or Germany’s 60%.

Although the service sector is still relatively weak, China’s manufacturing capability has improved. UN’s Industrial Development Organization issued 2011 report ranked China as No.5 in it’s evaluation of industrial competitiveness of 122 nations, following Singapore, the US, Japan and Germany in that order. China now contributes 14.45% of world's total industrial output (albeit with about 19% of population).

But to maintain a higher growth rate, say 8 or 9 % of GDP in 2012 in the weak global economical environment, China’s domestic demand alone may not be suffice to pull such GDP growth. Investment including FDI, along with ramifications or risks of “hot money” is still vital for China’s GDP growth, to say nothing about the China containment on the political and military front. In that sense the year 2012 will indeed be a dangerous year. Then again, every year since 1949 was a dangerous year for the Chinese.

There's a new revolution out there. It started in North America and is fast spreading around the planet. It's called the "Shale Revolution" and it means abundant cheap clean energy, everywhere, for everybody. Exploiting this source of energy means job creation, wealth creation, and the end of energy poverty. China has several hundred years worth of unconventional energy reserves. China has something else, next to no infrastructure required to get this energy to market. Those failing steel mills mentioned in the article will soon be working full tilt producing the HSS required to get this energy to wellhead, then to market. Anybody who thinks that China will not expedite shale exploitation is quite delusional.

Articles like this appear to confirm the ripple effects of the global economic slowdown in a country like China.

It could hardly be expected that China's economy would have evolved into a consumer-demand economy at this relatively early stage of development. However, it is that type of economy that is best for providing a defense against more difficult economic times.

Much of what China has sold the world was finance by the massive expansion of credit in the West over the last 25 years. At the margin, the tide of credit has reversed. China's export-driven economy depended heavily on that model.

It will be interesting to see further anecdotal evidence from China which challenges the official economic figures. I am sure that during the backroom leadership transition, they will do everything possible to keep things afloat economically this year. But after that, the options dwindle. You just can't create free money out of thin air. You just can't ignore the law of economics and human behavior. You just can't. Even the US Federal reserve can't.

It will be interesting times for the middle kingdom.

When I consider the economic, social and political troubles that China faces, I hope that they can be met without a relapse into chaos. The Chinese have suffered more than their share of that.

Internal instability in China is a danger not just to the Chinese govt. but to the Chinese people and to the entire world. The Chinese leadership needs to be offered constructive incentives to allow more peaceful expression of diverse views, not external threats and badgering.

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