解读中央经济工作会议系列之九

人民财评：潜在民生支出大 债务累积要慎重

林双林

2011年12月27日08:05    来源：人民网     手机看新闻

• 打印
• 网摘
• 纠错
• 商城
• 字号

分享到...

• 分享到人人
• 分享到QQ空间

　　解读中央经济工作会议系列财评精彩回顾：

　　解读中央经济工作会议系列之八：金融要当好实体经济的“血库”

　　解读中央经济工作会议系列之七：增加中低收入者收入要过三道“坎”

　　解读中央经济工作会议系列之六：别把“入不敷出”当成“积极财政政策”

　　解读中央经济工作会议系列之五：二次收入分配对民生改善大有可为

　　解读中央经济工作会议系列之四：“稳中求进”就要及时化解金融风险

　　解读中央经济工作会议系列之三：汇改方向已明确，落到实处是关键

　　解读中央经济工作会议系列之二：减少社会排斥才能实现“包容性发展”

　　解读中央经济工作会议系列之一：货币政策适时微调“稳增长、控物价”

　　今年的中央经济工作会议提出，要继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策。财政政策要继续完善结构性减税政策，加大民生领域投入，积极促进经济结构调整，严格财政收支管理，加强地方政府债务管理。

　　这是我国明年财政和经济工作的重要指导原则。同时，我国应树立起长远平衡预算的思想，为国家的长远发展留下余地。

　　1994年税制改革后，随着经济发展，中国财政收入大幅增加。按照居民消费价格计算，1994-2010年的实际财政收入增长率为14.4%，2000-2010年增长率为16.1%；按照商品零售价格计算，1994-2010年的实际财政收入增长率为15.6%，2000-2010年增长率为16.9%。2010年财政收入达到83101.5亿元，占到国内生产总值的22%，超过了1994年确定的20%的目标。2011年前10个月，全国财政收入90851.7亿元，比去年同期增长28.1%。

　　这些年来财政收入大幅增加，中央和地方政府债务却未相应减少。中国政府部门拥有的公开和隐形的债务，其规模和构成都值得我们深入分析。

　　多年来，各级政府都把经济增长放在至高无上的地位，即使在高增长的年份也实行赤字财政。每年到了年底，都怕下一年经济增长会下滑，都要实行赤字财政。

　　二十多年的财政赤字使得中国政府债务余额不断增加。1985年政府内债余额占GDP的2.64%，国家外债余额占GDP的5.16%；2010年政府内债余额占GDP的17.81%，国家外债余额占GDP的8.73%；2010年地方政府的债务已达10万亿元，加上社会保障个人账户的欠账（不算社会保障的隐性债务），高等教育机构的债务，以及其它隐性政府债务，中国政府债务规模大约占到GDP的50%-60%。

　　中国在教育、医疗卫生、社会保障方面的投入与发达国家差别较大。政府教育支出占GDP的比重2009年为3.04%，世界平均水平为5%；政府卫生支出占GDP的比重2009年不到1.4%，同年世界平均水平为6.1%。增加这些方面的支出势在必行。与此同时，养老保障个人账户空缺很大，人口老龄化加剧后养老账户需要财政补贴。这将会给财政带来明显压力。因此，我们应该未雨绸缪，合理规划我国当前和未来的债务规模。

　　国家债务通常是为了战争年代支付军费、经济衰退时期刺激经济或为了扩大社会福利而形成的。其实，许多国家在经济高速发展期都有财政盈余。例如，美国1980年债务占GDP的比重只有33%左右，而日本1970年政府债务占GDP的比重仅为9.6%。

　　另一方面，与当今发达国家政府债务状况恶化不同，不少新兴经济体的债务状况有了明显好转。例如，上世纪90年代曾经遭受亚洲金融危机冲击的泰国、印尼、菲律宾，目前其政府债务占GDP的比重均低于50%；俄罗斯的政府债务占GDP的比重1999年为88.7%，2008年下降到7.9%,2009年为10.9%。

　　可以看出，无论是与新兴经济体现阶段相比，还是与发达国家经济高速发展时期相比，我国政府债务都处于偏高的水平。

　　我们应树立起长期平衡预算的思想，经济衰退时增加政府开支或减税，出现赤字；经济高涨时减少开支或增税，获得盈余，偿还债务。要防患于未然，不要在经济高速增长时期积累大量债务。在不得不实施赤字财政政策时，应尽力控制赤字的规模，防止片面增大政府开支，重视减税。

　　我们在制定财政政策时，不宜过分追求GDP（国内生产总值）增长,而应该重视国民财富的增长。而国民财富中包括无形资产和自然资源等。

　　债务是要以后偿还的。我们处于经济高速发展阶段，教育、医疗、社会保障方面的潜在支出非常大，现阶段应尽量减少债务积累，多为国家的长远发展留下余地。（作者系北京大学中国公共财政研究中心主任、财政学系主任、教授） （责任编辑：毕磊）

Reading central economic work conference series of nine

People's wealth review: the people's livelihood spending big debts accumulated potential is important

LinShuangLin

December 27, 2011 08:05    Source:PRC     Cell phone watch the news

• print
• Summaries of profiles and news
• Error correction
• mall
• share
• recommend
• size

Share...

• Share to everyone
• Share QQ space

　　Reading central economic work conference series review highlights of wealth:

　　Reading central economic work conference series 8: financial be good to the real economy "blood"

　　Reading central economic work conference series 7: low income to increase income three word "candy"

　　Reading central economic work conference series six: don't put the "red" as "positive financial policy"

　　The central economic work conference interpretation of the series five: second income distribution to improve people's livelihood bright prospects

　　Reading central economic work conference series 4: "WenZhongQiuJin" in time to defuse financial risks

　　Reading central economic work conference series # 3: yuan reform has clear direction, into practice is the key

　　Reading central economic work conference series no.2: reduce social exclusion to achieve "inclusive development"

　　Reading one of central economic work conference series: monetary policy timely fine-tuning "steady growth, accused of price"

This year the central economic work conference we, want to continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy.Fiscal policy will continue to improve the structural tax cuts, increase input in the people's livelihood, and actively promote economic structure adjustment, strict financial revenue and expenditure management, strengthening local government debt management.

This is China's financial and economic work next year the important guiding principles.At the same time, our country should set up long-term to balance the budget, thought and to the country's long-term leaves room for development.

After the 1994 tax reform, with the development of economy, China's finance income increase.According to the consumer price calculation, 1994-2010 years of actual financial income growth rate of 14.4%, 2000-2010 annual rate of 16.1%;According to the retail price calculation, 1994-2010 years of actual financial income growth rate of 15.6%, 2000-2010 annual growth rate of 16.9%.2010 in the fiscal income amounted to 8.31015 trillion yuan, accounting for up to 22% of gross domestic product, more than 1994 years to determine the 20% target.2011 years ago 10 months, the national finance income 9.08517 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.1%.

These years finance income increase, the central and local government debt but not less.The Chinese government departments of the public and the invisible with debt, its size and composition worth our in-depth analysis.

For many years, the government at all levels to economic growth in the loftiest status, even in the year of growth also run deficits.Every year to the end of the year, all afraid of a slowdown in economic growth, to run deficits.

Twenty years of fiscal deficit makes the Chinese government debt balance increasing.In 1985 the government internal debt balance accounts for 2.64% of GDP, the national debt balance accounts for 5.16% of GDP;In 2010 the government internal debt balance accounts for 17.81% of GDP, the national debt balance accounts for 8.73% of GDP;In 2010 the local government debt has reached 10 trillion yuan, plus social security following the individual account (not the social security of the implicit debt), higher education institutions of debt, and other implicit government debt, the Chinese government debt scale about 50% of GDP-60%.

China in education, medicine and health, social security in a greater difference between developed and developing countries.The government education expenditure in GDP to 3.04% in 2009, the world average of 5%;The government health expenditure in GDP in 2009, less than 1.4%, the same year the world average of 6.1%.Increase the expenditure is imperative.At the same time, old-age security individual account openings is very big, an aging population increased endowment account for financial subsidies after.That will give the financial pressure to bring obvious.Therefore, we should prepare for a rainy day, reasonable planning our country current and future debt scale.

National debt is usually in order to pay the cost of war, economic recession to stimulate the economy or in order to expand the social welfare and form.In fact, many countries in the high-speed economic development have fiscal surplus.The United States, for example, 1980 debt to GDP ratio of only 33%, while Japan in 1970 the government debt in GDP is only 9.6%.

On the other hand, and the developed countries government debt deterioration in different, many emerging economies debt situations have improved significantly.For example, the 1990 s had come under the impact of the Asian financial crisis in Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, at present the government debt in GDP are all lower than 50%;Russia's government debt in GDP in 1999 to 88.7% in 2008 and dropped to 7.9% and 10.9% in 2009.

Can see, whether with the emerging new economic reflect stage, compared with the developed countries or high-speed economic development period in China government debt are all in the high level.

We should set up long-term to balance the budget, thought, economic recession increase government spending or tax cuts, deficit;Economic upsurge to reduce spending or to increase taxes, get surpluses, repayment of the debt.To prevent this, don't in the economic growth period accumulate a large amount of debt.Have to be implemented in deficit policy, should try to control the size of the deficit, prevent one-sided increase government spending, pay attention to the tax cuts.

We were making the fiscal policy, should not be too much pursuit of GDP (GDP) growth, and should pay attention to the growth of national wealth.While the national wealth include intangible assets and natural resources, etc.

Debt is to pay later.We are in the high-speed economic development stage, education, medical treatment, social security potential spending is very big, the present stage should try to reduce debt accumulation, more for the long-term development of the country to leave the door.(the author is Beijing university Chinese public finance, and public finance director of center of the dean, professor)(responsibility editor: BiLei)