氪命玩家:探温"三驾马车"

财经频道荣誉出品



中国社科院《经济蓝皮书》预计，2012年中国经济增速将继续有所回落，投资、消费、出口这拉动经济的 “三驾马车”，明年增速都将减缓。尤其是外需下降，将导致中国经济增速下降。有专家认为，未来中国经济告别过分依赖投资和出口，使经济增速下降，其实是好事。叶檀表示增速放缓是不是好事，要看经济发展效率指标以及中国经济结构转型是否成功。…[详细]
投资——拉动经济增长的主力之马
今年投资数据的一个明显的特点是，基础设施的投资增长势头明显放缓。在可以预见的将来，这一状况恐怕难以根本改变。8月10日召开的国务院常务会议决定，开展高速铁路及其在建项目安全大检查，适当降低新建高速铁路运营初期的速度，对拟建铁路项目重新组织安全评估。这被市场理解为高铁投资开始降温。 基础设施领域唯一的亮点是，前三季度水利、环境和公共设施管理业同比增长17.2%，扣除价格变动影响后，仍有近10%的增长，是三大基础设施行业中投资增长状况最好的。…[详细]
对于明年的投资，我们大致可以预见的是：民间投资将出现较大的萎缩，但今明两年正是刺激经济的四万亿元投资完工的高峰期，可以补上一部分缺口；明年房地产开发投资势必继续下降趋势，但保障房建设投资会弥补一部分缺口，因此不会大幅回落。明年是“十二五”规划的第二年，各行业规划将进入实施阶段，制造业和基础设施建设投资将继续稳健增长。明年经济保持稳定增长当属可期。虽然投资之马在增长中居功甚伟，但好马要识新途。要在现有条件下，克服眼前的困难，驾驭好投资这匹马，让明年走出一条质量比较高的增长之路。…[详细]
消费——增速放缓待发力的成长之马
10月下旬，商务部、财政部和央行联合发布《关于“十二五”时期做好扩大消费工作的意见》，提出到2015年，社会消费品零售总额达到32万亿元，年均增长15%，消费对经济的拉动作用进一步增强。我国绝大多数二三线城市处于30%-70%的快速城镇化阶段，这将对消费产生巨大的推动作用。“十二五”规划中首次将重点放在扶持国内消费市场的各项措施上，以使中国个人消费占GDP的比重由目前的36%上升至2015年42%-45%，今后消费比较超越贸易与投资，成为我国经济发展的“主旋律”。…[详细]
今年是“十二五”开局之年，专家分析指出，扩大消费，短期应在培育网购、绿色、低碳等新消费热点上下工夫，长期则应尽快推进收入分配改革，完善社会保障制度。“由于环境资源的约束，以及控制物价上涨的压力，使得与住房、汽车消费相关的调控政策短期难以退出，缩小了后期扩大消费的政策空间。”商务部贸易研究院消费经济部副主任赵萍说。扩大消费，短期靠消费政策创新，长期还需切实推进收入分配改革，完善社会保障制度。赵萍认为，各地应出台政策，延长节庆消费高峰。同时，培育新的消费热点，在低碳、网购等方面寻找新的政策支持对象。…[详细]
外贸——任务艰巨的承压之马
商务部预计，2011年中国外贸增长20%左右，这一数字与2010年中国外贸34.7%的增长相比，缩水近15%。报告同时称，2012年中国对外贸易增速仍可能有所回落，主要风险来自于日趋复杂的外部环境。今年7月份以来，我国制造业新出口订单指数徘徊在50%左右的低位。人民币升值压力不断增加，也不利于企业接单、排产，经营风险上升。此外，国内经济增速放缓，进口增速也会有所回调。失去活力的国际需求可能在相当长一段时间内拖累中国外贸增长。…[详细]
尽管如此，在2012年中国外贸仍将维持一定增长速度。因为中国经济基本面存在较高的宏观经济稳定性。尽管中国2011年通胀压力较大，人民币汇率持续波动，存在地方融资平台潜在债务风险和银行业潜在不良信贷风险，但与其他主要经济体和新兴市场相比，中国的财政状况仍然最为稳健，中国银行体系资产状况仍然良好。通过产业升级、提高国际市场份额、对外直接投资等方式，中国产业界已经明显增强了在国际市场的话语权力。同时，中国正在逐步超越单纯依赖价格竞争力的阶段，越来越多地依靠人力资源、公共服务效率、基础设施、产业配套等方面的优势，即使是成本上升的压力，在可预见的未来，中国也能依靠国内产业转移而消化掉相当一部分。…[详细]
投票与调查
扩展阅读
·"三驾马车"增长乏力 适度通胀将成常态
·告别喧嚣年代 启动新"三驾马车"

2012宏观经济十大猜想

2012年宏观经济展望:增长是硬道理
话中音
“牢牢把握扩大内需这一战略基点，把扩大内需的重点更多放在保障和改善民生、加快发展服务业、提高中等收入者比重上来 ”
中央经济工作会议
“要研究如何增加城乡居民收入，有了收入才能扩大消费。一旦收入增加，对经济看好，消费信心会进一步增强，会形成良性循环。 ”
国务院参事室特约研究员 姚景源
“增速放缓是不是好事，要看经济发展效率指标以及中国经济结构转型是否成功。 ”
财经评论员 叶檀

我们乐观地深信中国增长的故事不会戛然而止。我们预期在明年以及整个十二五期间，在减速过弯，以质量换速度的前提下，逐渐换装新的三驾马车发动机。一是以深度城市化替代传统城市化，扬弃而不是抛弃GDP锦标赛，以超级城市群（及其现代化立体交通系统）的建设为抓手，解决困扰多时的城乡一体化和现代化巨型城市运营管理问题；实现产业升级、合理转移下的全面城市化和区域均衡增长。二是以大消费和消费升级替换消费不足。随着中国经济的稳健增长，居民人均可支配收入不断增加，人民生活水平持续提高，再加上政府对消费服务给予越来越多的重视和政策鼓励，我们完全有理由相信，未来较长的一段时间都将是消费行业的黄金时代。三是以人民币国际化替换一般贸易出口，即在人民币国际化方向下，在巨额外汇储备的保驾护航下，向亚太和其他地区输入工程、服务、商品、资本和货币。在更新了的投资、出口、消费三驾马车的基础上重启系统，这将是一个中长期可持续的向上趋势。



By the Chinese academy of social sciences "economic blue book of Chinese to predict, 2012 China's economic growth will continue to drop back, investment, consumption and export this economy" three carriages ", growth will slow down next year.Especially now drop, will lead to China's economic growth dropped.The expert thinks, the future China economic farewell relying too heavily on investment and exports, make economic growth down, actually is a good thing.Leaf wingceltis said growth is slowing is good, want to see economic development efficiency index and China's economic structure transformation was successful....[detailed]
Investment-the main drive economic growth of the horse
This year, the data of the investment a obvious features infrastructure investment growth slowed sharply.In the foreseeable future, the situation are afraid to fundamental change.August 10, at the the standing committee of state council decision, and carry out the high-speed railway construction projects and safety check, reduced new high-speed rail at the early stage of the operation speed of railway projects proposed new organization safety evaluation.This is the market for high iron investment began to understand cooling.The infrastructure sector is the only bright spot, in the first three water conservancy, environment and public facilities management year-on-year growth of 17.2%, deduct price change impact, there are still nearly 10% growth, are three great infrastructure investment growth industry in the best of the situation....[detailed]
For the next year of investment, we can generally be expected that private investment will appear larger atrophy, but in the next two years is to stimulate the economy of the four trillion yuan investment completed the rush hour, can make up part of the gap;Next year will continue to fall investment in real estate development trend, but security room construction investment will make up for part of the gap, so it won't fall sharply.Next year is a "1025" planning the next year, industry planning will stepped into the stage of implementation, manufacturing and infrastructure construction investment will continue to steady growth.Economic stability growth next year when the but period.Although the growth in investment in strong horse what wei, but a good horse is the new way.In the existing conditions, overcome the difficulties of sight, control the good investment this horse, let out a next year high quality of growth path....[detailed]
Consumption--growth is slowing momentum of the growth of the horse of the force
In late October, the ministry of commerce, the ministry of finance and central bank have jointly issued the "on" 1025 "period to expand consumption work opinion", put forward by 2015, the total retail sales reached 32 trillion yuan, the average annual growth of 15%, economic role in boosting consumption to further increase.Our country most two three city in 30%-70% of the rapid urbanization level, this will produce great role in promoting consumption."1025" planning for the first time to focus on the support domestic consumption market measures, in order to make China personal consumption in GDP from the current 36% to 42% in 2015-45% and in the future the consumption is beyond trade and investment, and become the economic development of China "theme"....[detailed]
This year is "1025" beginning of expert analysis points out, expand consumption, short-term should be in cultivating, green, buys low carbon and other new consumption hotspot fluctuate, long-term should be promoting reform as soon as possible income distribution, perfect social security system."Due to the environmental resources constraint, and control the pressure of the rising prices, making and housing, cars consumer related regulation policy to quit, narrowing the short-term later expand consumption policy space."The ministry of commerce trade institute consumer economy, deputy director of the ZhaoPing said.Expand consumption, short-term consumption policy on innovation, long-term still need to promote reform of the income distribution, perfect social security system.ZhaoPing think, should be around policy, extend the festival consumption peak.At the same time, foster new consumption hotspot, in low carbon, e-commerce looking for new policy aspects of support object....[detailed]
Foreign trade-the task of confined horse
The Commerce Department estimated, in 2011 China foreign trade growth around 20%, that number and 2010 34.7% of the increase in China's foreign trade, shrink nearly 15%.The report also says, in 2012 China foreign trade growth could still falling, the main risk comes from the external environment of increasingly complex.Since July of this year, China's manufacturing new export orders index hovering around 50% in the low.The appreciation of the renminbi increasing pressure, also go against enterprise meets the list, production scheduling, management risk is rising.In addition, the domestic economic growth is slowing, imports also will have the callback.The international demand could lose energy in quite a long period of time to drag the Chinese foreign trade growth....[detailed]
Even so, in 2012 China foreign trade will still maintain certain growth.Because China's economic fundamentals exist on the higher macroeconomic stability.Although China 2011 inflation pressure is bigger, the RMB exchange rate fluctuations continued, existence of local financing platform potential debt risks and potential adverse banking credit risk, but with other major economies and emerging market in China than in the financial health of the most robust still, China's banking system in assets still good.Through the industrial upgrading, improve the international market share, foreign direct investment and way, Chinese industry has clearly enhance the discourse power in the international market.Meanwhile, China is gradually beyond relying solely on price competition stage, depend more and more on human resources, public service efficiency, infrastructure and industrial supporting advantages of even rising cost of pressure, in the foreseeable future, China can also rely on domestic industry shift and digest quite part....[detailed]
投票与调查
扩展阅读
·"Three carriages" moderate inflation will be weak growth to be normal
·Say goodbye to the blatant s start new "three carriages"

2012 the macro economic ten big guess

2012 the macro economic prospects: growth is the hard truth
话中音
"Firmly grasp the expansion of domestic demand this strategic basis points, to expand domestic demand more emphasis on the guarantee and improve the people's livelihood, to speed up the development of service industry, improve the proportion of middle-income earners to come up "
The central economic work conference
"To study how to increase the income of urban and rural residents, have the income to expand consumption.Once the income increase, to the economy is good, consumer confidence will further increase, will form a virtuous cycle. "
The state council CanShiShi special researcher YaoJingYuan
"Growth is slowing is good, want to see economic development efficiency index and China's economic structure transformation was successful. "
Financial commentators blackwood leaves

We believe that China's growing optimism story not to an abrupt end.We expected in the next year and 1025 period, in the slow corners, with the quality change speed, under the premise of gradually new outfit three carriages engine.One is the depth to replace the traditional urbanization urbanization, give not abandon GDP championships, with super urban agglomeration (and its modern three-dimensional traffic system) of the construction of high-quality curriculums, solve the trouble of a long the integration of urban and rural areas and modern giant city operation management problem;Realize industrial upgrading and reasonable transfer of urbanization and comprehensive regional balanced growth.The second is the big spending and consumer upgrades to replace the insufficiency of consumption.With China's economy and the steady growth, per capita disposable income increase constantly, and continue to improve people's living standard, coupled with the government to consumer service to give more and more attention and policy encouragement, we have every reason to believe that the future is a long time will be spending the golden age of the industry.Three is RMB internationalization to replace a trade exports, namely in RMB internationalization direction, in the massive foreign exchange reserves to escort, asia-pacific and other areas to input engineering and services, commodities and capital and currency.In the updated investment, exports, consumption on the basis of three carriages to restart the system, it will be a long-term sustainable upward trend.