夸人好的成语:Peanuts, beer, 3 yr loans here!

Peanuts, beer, 3 yr loans here!    By Peter Boockvar - December 20th, 2011,
Peanuts, beer, 3 yr loans here! Today, European banks tell the ECB how much borrowing they want to do at 1% for 3 yrs. Tomorrow we’ll hear how much they took and forecasts are about 300b euros. While some are still speculating that banks are buying short term sovereign debt after selling it for the past few months, yields in Spain, Italy, Belgium and others are down again. Also, another good Spanish sale of short term bills is helping sentiment. Spain sold 3 month debt at a yield of 1.74%, well below the 5.11% paid last month and they paid 2.44% for 6 month bills vs 5.23% in Nov. The Spanish 2 yr yield is falling to a 17 week low and the 10 yr is at a 10 week low. There is confidence in the new Rajoy govt’s will and ability to get thru tough reforms as it will certainly be easier than for the previous Socialist gov’t. Italy’s 2 yr yield is at a 7 week low. Germany’s Dec IFO business confidence  unexpectedly rose to 107.2 from 106.6 led by the expectations component. Also in Europe, the euro basis swap is narrowing to a 2 week low and Sweden cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected. The ECB did fully sterilize its 211b euros of purchases. In Asia, the Shanghai and Sensex indices continue to trade poorly but the Kospi bounced after yesterday’s Kim Jong Il induced selloff.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  Santa brings a lot of cash
By Peter Boockvar - December 21st, 2011 Santa Clause came to town a few days early in the form of the ECB lending a greater than expected 489b euros to 523 European banks for three years. About 200b of this will be new money as the balance is being rolled from maturing loans. This is the ECB’s version of QE as new money is being injected into the balance sheet’s of banks and we’ll soon see what banks do with the money. Again, this is a liquidity event and does nothing to change the debt and long term growth challenges that many countries in Europe have faced for a years. Santa will come back in Feb for an encore performance with another 3 yr offering. Maybe a sell on the news, the euro basis swap is wider by 4 bps after falling 24 bps over the previous 3 days. Spanish and Italian bonds are also lower after the sharp gains, mostly on the short end, over the past week. In Asia, most markets rallied, especially the South Korean Kospi which was up 3%, gaining back all of Monday’s losses. The Shanghai index continues to lag, falling another 1%. In the US, the MBA said the avg 30 mortgage rate fell to 4.08% from 4.12%, another multi decade low but purchases still fell to a 5 week low, down 4.9% and refi’s fell by 1.6%. Newsletter writers aren’t swayed by European problems as II said Bulls rose to 48.4 from 45.3, the highest since July while Bears remained unchanged at 30.5. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------路透法兰克福12月21日电---各银行周三从欧洲央行(ECB)大举申购近4,900亿欧元三年期低息贷款,缓解了对於信贷紧缩的忧虑,但其中有多少资金将流入受困的欧元区经济体仍然不确定.欧元区领导人一连串举措都未能阻止市场对欧元区疲弱成员国的攻击後,年底前缓解危机的希望就落在了ECB提供的期限超长且利率超低的贷款上面.银行业申购规模接近5,000亿欧元,这是欧洲央行迄今向金融系统注入资金的最大规模,并且远高於所有预期.共有523家银行申购ECB三年期贷款,申购总额远高於接收路透访查的交易商所预期的3,100亿欧元. "申购规模非常大...远高於预期的3,000亿欧元.目前银行系统的流动性明显增加."Newedge Strategy的Annalisa Piazza说.此次融资应能改善银行的财务状况,缓解信贷紧张的威胁,可能促使他们购买意大利和西班牙债券,进而缓解欧元区主权债务危机.不过分析师称,资金大笔流向欧元区疲弱国家的可能性较低,而且尽管可能避免了银行间拆借活动冻结,但仍未解决银行间不愿意彼此拆借的问题.有关注资将缓解欧洲持续两年的债务危机的乐观情绪迅速降温,令欧元和股市在起初上涨後转跌.银行此前难以获得资金,主要是因为投资者担忧欧元区国家体质,以及银行对其的曝险.因此银行业愈发依赖欧洲央行(ECB),而且需要为这些贷款提供更多担保品,这可能使问题加剧. "这(融资)有一定帮助.不只是权宜之计,不过绝不是长期解决方案,"伦敦Mediobanca分析师Chris Wheeler称.尽管欧洲央行这项最新举措可能避免了信贷紧缩,但银行是否将如法国总统萨科齐呼吁的那样,用这笔资金去购买意大利及西班牙公债仍不那麽确定,因银行面临着削减风险、重建资本及向企业放款的竞争压力."尽管这可能有助於应对近期信贷市场再度紧张的迹象并支撑银行放款,但我们仍不相信该举措亦可缓和主权债危机,"Capital Economics的分析师Jonathan Loynes称.银行将不会增加其对主权债敞口,因欧盟银行业管理局(EBA)规则不允许,意大利银行协会(ABI)称.考虑到这些疑问,大多数市场专家认为只有欧洲央行更积极直接地购买政府公债才有助於减轻危机,而欧央行不愿这样做.