惠泽堂阿胶糕怎么样:人民币升值趋势为何连遭"点刹"?

新华网荣誉出品总策划:周锡生　本期策划:张立佳　编辑:邱小敏


截至12月9日，在中国外汇即期交易市场，人民币对美元汇率连续第8个交易日触及交易区间下限，也就是触及“跌停”。自2005年7月21日起，我国开始实行浮动汇率制度以来，除了在金融危机期间重新盯住美元外，人民币对美元汇率连续多个交易日保持贬值的现象并不多见。一时间，“资本流出”“汇率套利”“看空中国”等观点相继出现。人们不仅要问，人民币升值之路真的到头了吗？…[详细]
人民币对美元即期汇率连续八日触及跌停
自央行11月30日宣布降低人民币法定存款准备金率以来，人民币对美元即期汇率已连续八天触及交易区间下限。然而,这段时间的人民币汇率走势并不意味着人民币汇率驶入了快速的贬值通道。实际上而言，近日国内市场人民币罕见的走势显示，人民币汇率经过前期的快速升值已经进入一个平台期。在这个平台上，人民币单边升值的现象将逐步消失，升值幅度也会缩小，人民币汇率将更多地反映国际国内经济形势变化而上下震荡。这一轮连续数日的人民币对美元走势或许正是人民币升值预期回归中性的一种表现。…[详细]
业内人士表示，因为每日的中间价不一样，人民币对美元连续“跌停”的幅度并不应该被简单累加。“实际上，从１１月底开始，人民币对美元汇率的中间价保持了基本稳定。”一位中资银行交易员表示，“因此虽然目前各方对人民币贬值渲染得较多，但人民币实际汇率跌幅有限。”…[详细]
人民币汇率为何出现境内外倒挂?揭开资本外流迷局
人民币走弱并非独家行情，印度卢比、俄罗斯卢布、泰铢、印尼盾等新兴经济体货币均逆转了此前升势。最近四个月印度卢比贬值15%,俄罗斯卢布下跌幅度超过15%，印尼盾也降至约两个月以来的最低位，新加坡元和马来西亚林吉特兑美元同样双双触及六周低位。分析人士指出，随着新兴国家经济增速放缓，欧债危机下欧美国家又需要大量的资金回流缓解，加上此时美元的避险价值再度呈现，资金正大规模回流购入美元，从而对新兴国家的汇率形成打压。…[详细]
2008年金融危机开始后，美元就成为首选的避险工具，此次欧债危机是同样道理。目前来看，美元仍是各路资金避险的首选。资金选择美元避险的因素是短期因素，欧债危机近期将会有解决之道，一旦方案明确，金融市场趋向稳定，避险情绪将会进一步缓解。对于国内而言，随着宏观政策的预调、微调，国内经济前景会进一步明朗，毕竟中国经济增长从长期看还将高于其他国家，因此资本外流不会是长期趋势。…[详细]
人民币汇率迎来进一步改革时间窗口
近日出现的波动可能表明，双向波动将成为未来趋势，甚至有可能出现较大幅度的波动。新加坡华侨银行经济分析师谢栋铭表示，人民币从单向波动转为双向波动，意味着人民币交易新纪元的开始。市场今后会加强人民币的双向波动预期，人民币交易模式未来也会因此而有新变化。长远来看，中国市场仍十分强劲，很有吸引力，长期来看人民币也将保持相对平稳的水平。还有分析认为，人民币的这次波动，可能会促使跨境资本流动出现逆转，减少投机资本涌入中国的积极性，大幅减缓国际热钱流入的压力，减少外汇占款，有利于控制通货膨胀。…[详细]
市场对近期人民币贬值应持理性态度，大可不必大惊小怪。汇率高低是不同经济体间经济实力的体现，从长远来看，中国经济还将保持高速增长的态势，在未来几年将与其他发达经济体的低迷增长形成明显反差，这决定了人民币远期仍有上涨空间。应该说，近期人民币的走软也较有利。短期来看，人民币走低对我国出口企业的生产经营利大于弊，有利于稳定出口，进而稳定我国经济增长。另外，人民币贬值预期的出现还将减轻国际热钱流入的压力，减少央行基础货币的投放量，有利于抑制国内资本价格泡沫，最终有利于控制物价上涨。…[详细]
投票与调查
http://forum.home.news.cn/vote_dc_world.jsp?voteid=9489
扩展阅读
·美国借人民币“修理老二”
·不要盲目使用人民币汇率"跌停板"概念

外资投行：人民币升值趋势未逆转

人民币贬值预期抬头 出口行业或受益
话中音
“这是一个非常好的现象，正好说明人民币汇率不是受政府控制的，是由市场调节的。”
——商务部国际贸易谈判副代表崇泉
“没有任何一国的货币汇率可以一直单边升值，如果因为人民币升值或贬值而恐慌，是很不理性的行为。 ”
——全国人大财经委副主任委员吴晓灵
“由于中国经济结构调整，中国外贸余额已逐步走向平衡，贸易顺差也不断下降。随着汇改进程深入，海外市场升值预期不断减弱。当前，人民币汇率已接近均衡点。”
——李稻葵

从更深层次看，美元兑人民币在年末的升值突然“爆发”，一方面受到了海外看空、做空中国经济甚至新兴经济体的影响，而另外也与中国对外贸易趋向平衡的情况下，人民币汇率在日趋市场化条件下减缓升值步伐有关，是人民币汇率市场化的结果，表明人民币汇率形成机制正在进一步完善。
The total planning: ZhouXiSheng this planning: ZhangLiJia editor: QiuXiaoMin


December 9,, in China's foreign exchange market at sight, the yuan to the dollar exchange rate eighth straight trading day touch the lower trading range, is also hit the "drop stop".Since July 21, 2005, China began to implement a system of floating exchange rates since, in addition to the financial crisis again during the peg to the dollar, and the dollar exchange rate more than the value of the trading day keep continuous phenomenon does not see more.One time, "capital outflow" "exchange rate arbitrage" "see empty China" views arise.People not only ask, yuan appreciation way really exhausted?...[detailed]
The spot exchange rate of RMB $for eight days touch drop stop
Since the central bank announced on November 30, reduce the legal deposit reserve rate. Since then, the yuan at the spot exchange rate against the dollar has eight straight days touch the lower trading range.However, the period of RMB exchange rate movements does not mean that the exchange rate of the yuan into a rapid devaluation of the channel.In fact, in the domestic market on the movements of the rare, according to the RMB exchange rate after the rapid appreciation has entered into the phase platform.In this platform, the yuan appreciation will gradually the phenomenon of unilateral disappear, appreciation also would narrow, the exchange rate of the yuan will be more reflected the domestic and international economic situation change up and down concussion.This round of consecutive days to the dollar trend, perhaps it is precisely the RMB appreciation regression neutral a performance....[detailed]
People in the industry say, because the daily the middle price, the dollar continuous "drop stop" range is not should be simple to attack."Actually, from the start to the end of November, the yuan against the us dollar in the middle price keep the basic stability."A Chinese bank traders said, "so although at present the yuan depreciation rendering more, but the RMB exchange rate drop. The actual limited"...[detailed]
The RMB exchange rate down there and why?Uncover capital outflows fan innings
The yuan is not the sole weaker prices, the Indian rupee, Russian rubles, Thai baht, rupiah, etc are emerging economies monetary reverse the upward trend.Four months Indian rupee, 15% in the Russian ruble fell by more than 15%, the rupiah also fell to about two months since the nineteen seventies, Singapore and Malaysia ringgit dollar both also touch six weeks low.Analytic personage points out, with emerging countries economic growth is slowing, the debt crisis and the European and American countries need a large amount of fund backflow ease, plus $at this time of the present value of a hedge again, the fund size board bought dollars backflow, and on the emerging countries exchange rate down....[detailed]
2008 years after the start of the financial crisis, the dollar will be the first choice of the hedge, the European debt crisis is the same reason.So far, the dollar is still the hedge funds of first choice.Choose a hedge funds of factors is $short-term factors, the European debt crisis recently there will be the solution, once scheme clear, the financial market is becoming stable, hedge mood will further easing.For the domestic character, along with the macro policy under attack, trimming, domestic economic prospects will further clear. After all, China's economic growth in the long run will also higher than any other country, and therefore won't be long-term trend capital outflows....[detailed]
The RMB exchange rate reform in further time window
Recently the fluctuations can show that appear, two-way fluctuation will become future trend, may even have appeared more substantial fluctuations.Singapore overseas Chinese bank economic analysts XieDongMing said, the yuan from one-way wave to two-way fluctuations, means that the beginning of a new era the deal.The market will strengthen future RMB two-way volatility expectations, the yuan trading model the future will be and has new change.In the long run, the Chinese market is still very strong, very attractive, and in the long run the yuan will also remain relatively smooth level.And analysis, it's the fluctuation RMB, may make cross-border capital flows reversed, reduce speculative capital pouring into China's enthusiasm, slowed substantially international hot money inflows of pressure, reduce the gap of foreign exchange, to control inflation....[detailed]
The market for recent yuan depreciation should hold rational attitude, can need not make a fuss over it.Exchange rate is high and low between different economies economic strength to reflect, in the long run, China's economy will continue to grow at a high speed the situation, in the next few years with other developed economies will slump growth form apparent contrast to determine the long-term still has a rising yuan space.Should say, recent weakness of the yuan is also beneficial.In the short term, the yuan lower on China's export the production and operation of enterprises not do more harm than good, stability for export, and stable economic growth in China.In addition, the devaluation of the expected there will also reduce international hot money inflows of pressure, reduce the central bank of the base currency data, to curb domestic capital price bubbles, and eventually to control rising prices....[detailed]
Voting and survey
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Extended reading
·The United States through the yuan "repair old two"
·Don't blindly use of RMB exchange rate "drop stop" concept

Foreign investment Banks: the appreciation of the renminbi not reverse the trend

The depreciation of RMB expected export industry or benefit looking up
Words about
"This is a very good phenomenon, just prove that the exchange rate of the yuan is not under the control of the government and the market regulation."
-the ministry of commerce international trade negotiations deputy representatives chong
"No one country's currency can have been unilateral appreciation, if because the appreciation of the renminbi or depreciation and panic, is not rational behavior. "
-National People's Congress vice director of CaiJingWei WuXiaoLing
"Because of China's economic structure adjustment, Chinese foreign trade balance has gradually to balance, the trade surplus also continue to drop.Along with the yuan reform process further, the expected appreciation over the overseas market weakening.At present, the RMB exchange rate has come close to the equilibrium."
-LiDaoKui

From a deeper look, at the end of the us dollar to RMB appreciation of the suddenly "breakout", on the one hand, was overseas, do see empty empty China's economy and even the effect of the emerging economies, but also with China's foreign trade towards balance, the exchange rate of the yuan in the more market conditions slow appreciation is concerned, the RMB exchange rate of the market, the result shows that the RMB exchange rate mechanism is further improved.