让团队励志的游戏:中国为何力挺人民币

中国为何力挺人民币

Fears of a slump have put pressure on the Chinese currency, and its central bank may have to stop it sliding further – or risk US anger

担心人民币暴跌会给中国货币带来压力，央行不得不在制止人民币下跌和触怒美国间做出选择

Posted byLarry ElliottThursday 8 December 2011 14.27 GMTguardian.co.uk

Article history

blog@拉里·埃利奥特，2011年12月8日星期四，格林尼治时间1427，卫报

Predictably enough, the focus of financial markets in recent days has been on Europe and the attempts of Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy to piece together a deal that will safeguard the future of the single currency. But interesting things are happening in other parts of the world, notably China, where fears of a hard landing have led to the currency coming under downward pressure.

可以预期，金融市场近日关注的重点在欧洲，安吉拉·默克尔和尼古拉斯·萨科齐正在哪里努力拼凑一个可以保障单一货币有未来的协议。不过有趣的事情同样发生在地球的其他角落，特别是中国，对硬着陆的担心导致人民币面临下行压力。

An interesting note from Michael Derks, chief strategist at FxPro, points out that the People's Bank of China has been dipping into its huge stockpile of dollars in order to prevent the yuan from declining. This is a rare occurrence: October's intervention was only the second time in 11 years that it has needed to shore up the Chinese currency.

FxPro的策略主管迈克尔·德克斯在一篇短文中指出，中国人民银行已经动用它的巨额美元储备以避免人民币下跌。这是很罕见的现象：10月的干预是11年来人民银行第二次需要出手力挺人民币。

Derks said: "Worried by slowing growth in China and falling property prices, and with credit conditions tightening not just in Europe but all other the world, some investors have started to pull capital out of the country."

德克斯称：“有投资人担心中国经济增速放缓，房地产价格下跌，以及信贷紧缩不是只发生在欧洲而是世界性的，因而开始从中国撤出资本。”

China's growth rate is clearly slowing, and that has already prompted a policy U-turn by the authorities in Beijing, who have relaxed credit conditions in recent weeks. Despite some rebalancing of the economy towards domestic demand, China remains highly vulnerable to a drop in demand for its exports. And it may be too late to prevent a property crash, given the size of the bubble that was allowed to develop.

中国经济增速显著下降，这导致北京主管部门政策180度的大转弯。前几周有关部门刚放松了信贷控制。尽管作出了一些让经济发展更多地依靠内需的努力，中国依然对出口降低非常敏感。考虑到房地产泡沫的规模，阻止这个产业的崩溃可能为时已晚。

In those circumstances, it is not difficult to see why there should be downward pressure on the currency. But China is still running a huge trade surplus, particularly with the United States, and Washington would not look kindly – to put it mildly – if Beijing allowed the yuan to slide on the foreign exchanges, thereby making China's exports cheaper. Beijing certainly does not lack the firepower to hold the currency steady and it may need to dip into its war chest over the coming months.

在现有情况下，不难判断人民币贬值压力来自何处。不过中国依然保有巨额顺差，特别是在对美贸易之中。华盛顿显然不会对中美贸易差额满意，特别是如果北京放任人民币贬值，更进一步降低中国出口产品价格的话。北京用充足的活力来维持人民币汇率稳定，它需要做的就是在将来几个月中从它的大金库掏出些钱来。