中国清洁能源行业之忧 The way the world turns

Ten years ago, the smoggy plains of Baoding were known mostly for producing donkey meat. Today, the city just to the south-west of Beijing has a different reputation – as the torchbearer for China’s solar panel industry, which has grown to become the largest in the world.

10年前，常年烟雾弥漫的保定市平原地区以出产驴肉闻名。如今，这座地处北京西南面的城市有了一个新名头：中国太阳能面板行业的“火炬手”。目前，中国太阳能面板行业的规模已位居全球之首。

On the tidy campus of Yingli Solar, Baoding’s biggest solar company, workers play basketball outside during a lunch break. Inside, the brightly lit machines whirr, click and zap, transforming polysilicon ingots into panels that are shipped off to Brazil, Germany or America.

适逢午休时分，在保定最大的太阳能企业英利集团(Yingli Solar)整洁的厂区内，一些工人在室外打着篮球。厂房里，一台台锃光瓦亮的机器飞速地旋转着，喳喳作响，把一块块多晶硅锭锻造成太阳能面板，它们将被销往巴西、德国和美国等地。

In an upstairs office, Ma Xuelu, chief strategy officer for Yingli and a former Baoding city official, sketches out a romantic vision of the future of solar power. “We want solar to be the green energy that the common man can use,” Mr Ma says. “It’s not like oil?.?.?.?Solar is a harmonious resource, a peaceful resource.”

在楼上的一间办公室里，原保定市官员、英利集团首席战略官马学禄在谈到太阳能的前景时，描绘了一幅瑰丽的景象。“我们希望太阳成为普通老百姓都能使用的绿色能源，它跟石油不一样……太阳能是一种和谐的资源，一种和平的资源。”

This year, however, the international solar industry has been neither harmonious nor peaceful, its tranquillity shattered by falling profits, business failures, political controversy and international trade disputes.

不过，今年的国际太阳能行业既不和谐、也不和平。利润不断下滑、企业倒闭、政治争议和国际贸易争端等因素，打破了太阳能行业的宁静。

The turmoil is a sign of the wider disruption caused by China’s breakneck drive into renewable energy. Committing huge resources to wind, solar and other “clean energy” technologies, China has remade a global industry that is estimated last year to have attracted $243bn in finance and investment. The result: an upending of business strategies and government policies around the world.

这种动荡是一个信号，折射出中国疾速进军可再生能源领域所造成的更大范围的破坏。中国在风力、太阳能以及其它“清洁能源”技术领域投入了巨大资源，重塑了一个全球性的行业——据估计，去年全球可再生能源领域的投融资总和共计2430亿美元。其结果是：全球范围内的商业战略和官方政策都被颠覆。

Yet the clean energy industry in China is itself now threatened by a series of challenges, both external and internal. The sector has come very far, very fast. Its future progress looks likely to prove more difficult.

然而，中国清洁能源行业本身面临着一系列挑战，正处于“内忧外患”之时。这个行业已走得太远，速度也太快。该行业今后的发展恐怕会更加艰难。

China’s drive to go green began roughly a decade ago, when booming energy consumption and the disastrous effects of pollution began to worry its leaders. In 2007, Beijing issued a blueprint for the development of wind, solar and biofuel activities; its wind power capacity then doubled every year, until this year. Public and private funds together have made China the world’s biggest investor in clean energy, with $54.4bn spent in 2010, according to the Pew Charitable Trusts in the US, which monitor the sector.

中国“绿色行动”

For the country’s leadership, renewables are both an antidote to a national energy crisis and a cure for the air pollution – mostly caused by burning coal – that is taking a heavy toll on lives. China is still powered largely by coal, but Beijing has a target of sourcing 15 per cent of its energy from non-fossil fuels by 2020, up from 8 per cent today. That is the equivalent of shifting a country the size of Italy from coal to renewables.

中国的“绿色行动”大致始于10年前，当时能源消耗激增和污染造成的恶性影响开始令中国领导人感到担忧。2007年，中国政府发布了一项发展风力、太阳能和生物燃油的规划。自那时起直到今年，中国风力发电产能逐年翻番。根据密切关注可再生能源行业的美国皮尤慈善信托基金会(Pew Charitable Trusts)的统计，2010年中国已成为全球最大的清洁能源投资国，全年公共急私人投资总计544亿美元。

As China’s demand for renewable energy has taken off, its manufacturing capacity has been growing even more rapidly. Two Chinese companies, Sinovel and Xinjiang Goldwind, now rank among the world’s three-largest wind turbine manufacturers by megawatts of capacity sold. (Vestas of Denmark is the other.)

对于中国领导人来说，发展可再生能源既可以化解国家能源危机，又有利于治理空气污染。中国的空气污染主要是燃烧煤炭所致，已经对居民生活造成了严重影响。目前中国仍然主要依靠煤炭发电，但中央政府已制定了远大目标：到2020年，非化石燃料在总体能源中所占的比例，将从目前的8%提高到15%。这相当于把一个意大利这样大的国家使用的能源全部从煤炭转为可再生能源。

In solar photovoltaic modules – the panels that generate electricity by the effect of sunlight falling on semiconductors – seven of the world’s 10 top manufacturers are Chinese. These include LDK Solar, Suntech Power, Yingli and Trina Solar. In 2007, there were just two in the top 10. Many of China’s wind and solar chief executives are among the country’s richest men.

随着中国对可再生能源的需求开始激增，其制造产能增长得更为迅速。按照所销售风力发电机的发电能力计算，华锐风电(Sinovel)和新疆金风科技(Xinjiang Goldwind)这两家中国公司如今已跻身全球三大风力发电机制造商之列。另外一家则是丹麦的维斯塔斯(Vestas)。

Growth has been driven by some of the same advantages that power the rest of China’s manufacturing – cheap labour and a large home market – along with support from local governments and state banks.

在太阳能组件（即借助太阳光线发电的太阳能面板）领域，全球十大制造商中，中国企业占了七家，其中包括江西赛维LDK太阳能高科技有限公司(LDK Solar)、尚德电力(Suntech Power)、英利以及天合光能(Trina Solar)。而在2007年，中国只有两家企业跻身前十。中国许多风力和太阳能公司的首席执行官，都跻身国内富豪榜。

Baoding moved into solar in 2002, when it christened a new development zone Power Valley, and offered preferential land deals and tax breaks to attract desired industries. Other cities have similar strategies. State-controlled banks have provided some $47bn in credit lines to clean energy companies, although only a fraction of that has been drawn down, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

中国可再生能源行业快速发展的动力，同样来自于推动中国其他制造业发展的一些优势因素，如廉价劳动力和庞大的国内市场。此外，也要归功于地方政府和国有银行的扶持。

Analysts say the arrangements were not unusual. “We haven’t seen any concrete evidence of Chinese solar firms getting land for free or getting cheaper loans [than other industries],” says Nipun Sharma at Mirae Asset Securities in Hong Kong. “The main reason behind their lower cost structure is economies of scale, and the flexibility in labour costs and also that of raw materials.”

保定市从2002年开始涉足太阳能，当时该市建成了一座名为“电谷”的新开发区，政府还提供土地和税收方面的优惠政策，以吸引目标产业。其他城市也制定了类似的战略。根据彭博新能源财经(Bloomberg New Energy Finance)的数据，中国国有银行总共为清洁能源企业提供了470亿美元信贷额度，但企业真正动用的，只占到了其中的一小部分。

Whatever its elements, the approach brought about a sea change not just in China but around the world. The “China price” for solar panels and wind turbines has up-ended the economics of renewable energy. The cost of a wind turbine today is roughly one-third of what it was in 2007, while solar panel prices have fallen about 40 per cent in the past year alone.

分析师称，这样的安排并不罕见。“我们没有看到切实证据，可以证明中国太阳能企业免费拿地了，或者是拿到了（比其他行业）更低廉的贷款。”未来资产证券(Mirae Asset Securities)香港分析师尼普恩?夏尔马(Nipun Sharma)表示，“他们总成本较低的主要原因在于规模经济效益，以及在劳动力成本和原材料方面的弹性。”

The falls have been particularly steep in solar because the increase in Chinese capacity has come on stream just as austerity programmes brought subsidy cuts for solar power in several large markets, including Spain, Italy, Germany and now the UK. The resulting drop in demand has left the world with enough capacity to produce about twice as many modules as will be sold this year.

不管具体情况怎样，这种做法不仅在中国、也在世界各地引起了巨大变化。太阳能面板和风力发电机的“中国价格”已经颠覆了可再生能源的经济意义。如今，一台风电机的成本大约是2007年的三分之一，而太阳能面板价格仅在过去一年里就下降了40%左右。

Cheaper panels have been a gift to renewable power generators, bringing their costs down to the point where they can compete against coal- or gas-fired plants in some parts of the world. Wind turbine makers have also benefited from sourcing components in China. “Today our end products are getting cheaper, thanks to China,” says Wolfgang Jussen, the China chief executive of Repower, a German turbine maker. “China was a game-changer.”

太阳能面板价格跌势尤为迅猛的原因在于，正当西班牙、意大利、德国和英国等一些主要市场由于实施财政紧缩计划、相继削减太阳能发电补贴之际，中国新增产能开始投产。由于需求下降，预计今年全球太阳能面板产能将比实际销售量多出一倍。

For some companies in the US, however, China’s rise in renewables is a threat. The collapse of Solyndra, a manufacturer of innovative light-catching tubes that went bankrupt in August with the loss of 1,100 jobs, has come to epitomise the failure of the Barack Obama administration’s attempt to create “green jobs”. Solyndra, backed by a $535m federal loan guarantee, was always a risky bet. But the chances of its success were weakened sharply by Chinese competition. Fears for the future of US solar panel output have led to the formation of a lobby group, the Coalition for American Solar Manufacturing, which has filed anti-dumping petitions against Chinese imports. Beijing has hit back with a probe of its own into US subsidies, raising the prospect of a trade war.

面板降价令那些太阳能发电厂商获益良多——它们得以降低成本，在世界某些地方已有能力同燃煤火电厂和燃气火电厂竞争。从中国采购部件，也令风力涡轮机厂获益良多。“如今我们的最终产品正变得越来越便宜，这要归功于中国。”德国风力涡轮机厂Repower中国区首席执行官沃尔夫冈?尤森(Wolfgang Jussen)说，“中国的参与，改变了游戏的格局。”

Yet the dispute is just one of the many issues facing Chinese clean energy companies. In solar, global overcapacity and falling prices have hit companies in China just as they have in the US and Europe. This month, Suntech, LDK Solar, Trina Solar and Yingli all announced that shipments would be lower than they had predicted. In the past six months, their shares have all more than halved.

内忧外患

Quality concerns and overcapacity have also made 2011 a difficult year for Chinese wind companies, as a glut of manufacturers with little or no experience have sought to enter the industry. Wu Jialiang, chief executive of Sany Electric, a subsidiary of Sany Heavy that makes wind turbines, says the quality risk is tremendous. “Some manufacturers are only looking to make a quick buck. I know what these companies are like. When the products come out of the factories, there is not even an inspection table,” he says.

然而，对于一些美国企业来说，中国在可再生能源领域异军突起是一种威胁。今年8月份，美国太阳能电池板制造商Solyndra宣告破产，1100名员工失业，这集中体现出巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)政府创造“绿色就业”的努力宣告失败。联邦政府为其提供5.35亿美元贷款担保的Solyndra，一直被认为是一个风险很大的押注。而来自中国的竞争，大大降低了这种押注成功的几率。由于担心美国太阳能面板业未来产能大幅缩减，一些美国人成立了游说团体美国太阳能制造联盟(Coalition for American Solar Manufacturing)。该联盟已提交申请，要求对中国出口的太阳能电池进行反倾销调查。中国政府则予以回击，对美国展开了反补贴调查。一场贸易战隐隐迫近。

Beijing has been trying to set this right with regulations, a process that has slowed the pace of wind farm installations. The ageing electricity grid meanwhile acts as a bottleneck as it struggles to absorb new capacity. According to the China Wind Energy Association, as much as 27 per cent of turbines were standing idle at the end of last year, not yet connected.

然而，贸易争端只是中国清洁能源企业面临的诸多问题之一。在太阳能行业，令欧美企业遭受打击的全球产能过剩以及价格下降问题，同样影响到了中国。本月，尚德(Suntech)、赛维LDK(LDK Solar)、天合光能(Trina Solar)、英利(Yingli)都宣布发货量将低于预期。在过去半年的时间里，这些企业的股价均已下跌过半。

Some say the flood of state-directed capital has led to inefficiencies in the same way that its steel and cement sectors ballooned under state support several decades ago. The biggest wind companies are closely linked to the state – Goldwind’s two largest shareholders are state-owned – and political connections sometimes help to enlarge market share. Premier Wen Jiabao’s son Winston co-founded a fund that was a significant investor in both Sinovel and Goldwind, China’s two largest turbine makers.

2011年对于中国风电企业来说并不好过，原因在于，大量经验不足或没有经验的企业纷纷想方设法进入风电行业，导致外界对该行业的产品质量产生忧虑，并导致产能过剩。三一重工旗下生产风力涡轮机的三一电气(Sany Electric)总经理吴佳梁表示，质量方面的风险非常高。“有些厂商只想迅速地捞一把。我知道这些厂商是怎么做的。它们的产品出厂之前，甚至连检测都不做。”

One wind farm developer describes how the bidding process for some wind farms works: “Quality is not really a concern when choosing a turbine manufacturer, it’s more about guanxi [political connections] and who you know who can give you loans.”

为了纠正这一问题，中国政府一直在努力采取各种监管措施，但这一过程减缓了风电厂装机量增长的步伐。同时，不断加剧的老化问题，也是限制电网吸收新产能的一个瓶颈。中国风能协会(China Wind Energy Association)的调查显示，去年年底时，有高达27%的风力涡轮机因为没有安装而处于停工状态。

As Chinese groups expand overseas they will face ever greater scrutiny, making the US trade probe a mere taste of things to come. “We have to take the fight to their backyard before they take the fight to Europe,” says the China head of a western turbine maker.

有些人说，大量政府主导的资金介入，已开始导致该行业效率低下，与数十年前钢铁和水泥业在政府的支持下急剧膨胀一样。那些规模最大的风电企业都与政府有着密切联系（金风科技(Goldwind)的前两大股东都是国企），这种联系有时候能够帮助这些企业扩大市场份额。中国总理温家宝之子温云松(Winston Wen)与人共同创办的一只基金，是中国最大的两家风力涡轮机制造商华锐风电(Sinovel)和金风科技的重要出资者。

Although turbines are bulky and hard to transport, Chinese manufacturers are beginning to build beachheads in export markets. Goldwind, for example, is investing in a $200m, 110 megawatt wind farm in Illinois as a showroom for its products. General Electric, the US market leader in turbines, is worried enough about the competitive threat to have addressed it head-on in a recent presentation to analysts, using photographs to show what it said was the poor quality of some Chinese production.

一位风电厂开发商这样描述一些风电厂的投标过程：“在选择风力涡轮机厂商的时候，质量并不是招标者真正看重的因素，他们更看中的是哪家厂商关系过硬，以及哪家厂商认识人、能拿到贷款。”

Li Junfeng, a senior energy policy official and deputy director of the Energy Research Institute at the National Development and Reform Commission, acknowledges there have been difficulties but says these will be resolved with time.

随着中国企业在海外扩张，它们将面临更多越来越严格的调查，像这次美国反倾销调查这样的事情，到那时将算不了什么。一家西方风力涡轮机厂商的中国区负责人表示：“我们要抢在中国企业打到欧洲之前，把这些企业堵在中国。”

“Our industries are still very young,” he says. “A child will stumble as he walks, because he’s still young. But eventually he will grow up.”

尽管风力涡轮机体积庞大、运输困难，但中国厂商已开始在出口市场上有所建树。比如说，金风科技正在伊利诺斯州兴建一个计划耗资2亿美元、计划总装机容量110兆瓦的风电厂，作为展示其产品的“样板间”。金风此举令美国风力涡轮机市场领军者通用电气(GE)感到了竞争的威胁，在最近面向分析师们的一次介绍会上，通用做出了一个直接的反应——展示了一些照片，用以说明某些中国产品质量不佳。

An American industry divided

资深能源政策官员、中国发改委(National Development and Reform Commission)能源研究所(Energy Research Institute)副所长李俊峰坦承，中国新能源行业的确遇到了一些困难，但假以时日，这些困难都是可以克服的。

US companies bringing actions to block cheap Chinese imports rarely inhabit sectors that get a technophile’s pulse racing, write Alan Beattie, Leslie Hook and Ed Crooks. So it was something of a departure when politicians, executives and lawyers appeared, flanked by solar panels, in a Congress hearing room last month to announce the first such case in America’s renewable energy industry.

“我们的新能源行业还非常年轻，”李俊峰表示，“小孩子走路难免磕磕碰碰，因为还没有长大。但他们总会长大的。”

Seven companies, fronted by a business called SolarWorld, want Washington to impose so-called anti-dumping and countervailing duties of 50-250 per cent on Chinese solar cells, saying they are priced unfairly low and are illegally state-subsidised.

贸易战威胁

SolarWorld, though a unit of a German company, describes itself as a US business, and the litigant groups call themselves the Coalition for American Solar Manufacturing (CASM). But a Coalition for Affordable Solar Energy (Case) has sprung up to oppose their action, including companies that import components for further manufacture and distribution.

美国企业常常采取行动，以期阻止廉价的中国进口商品，但很少有企业是来自能令技术爱好者们脉搏加速的行业。因此，当政界人士、公司高管和律师们上个月带着太阳能电池板现身美国国会听证大厅，宣告美国可再生能源领域迎来首起此类诉讼案时，情况出现了某些变化。

The dispute illustrates the difficulty of identifying where China’s renewable industry ends and America’s starts. CASM calls Case a “Chinese importer group”, and says its action is within the normal practice of US trade law. Meanwhile Case, which claims to represent companies with nearly 10,000 workers, or 10 per cent of the US solar labour force, says SolarWorld is merely seeking protection from the free market. “Every day, new American solar companies are stepping forward to oppose SolarWorld’s bid to block competition,” says Alan Epstein, president of New Jersey-based KDC Solar. “Competition is good for the US solar industry, good for solar jobs.”

以SolarWorld为首的7家公司希望华盛顿方面针对中国太阳能电池征收50%至250%的反倾销税及反补贴税，它们声称中国的太阳能电池定价过低，并且享有不合法的国家补贴。

For its part, Beijing announced last week that it would investigate clean energy subsidies in the US, which ran a $240m trade surplus in solar goods with China last year, according to America’s Solar Energy Industries Association.

SolarWorld虽是一家德国企业的子公司，但却自称是一家美国企业。此案中的诉讼团体自称为美国太阳能制造联合会(CASM)。但还有一些企业组成了一个廉价太阳能联合会（Coalition for Affordable Solar Energy，简称：Case），反对这一行动，其中包括进口零配件以进行深加工及配售的企业。

SolarWorld and CASM are likely to get their duties when America’s International Trade Commission makes its two-stage ruling next month and in the new year. But the case will not solve the dispute over whether US trade policy should aim to keep as much solar cell manufacturing as possible at home, or accept cheap imports and seek to create an industry further up the value chain.

这场争论反映出人们难以确定中国可再生行业与美国可再生行业之间的界限。CASM将Case称为一家“中国进口商组织”，并表示自己的行为符合美国贸易法惯例。另一方面，Case表示，SolarWorld只是在寻求从自由市场获得保护。Case宣称自己代表着近1万名工人，相当于美国太阳能行业劳动力总数的10%。“每一天都会有新的美国太阳能企业站出来反对SolarWorld试图抑制竞争的举动。”总部位于新泽西的KDC Solar的总裁艾伦?爱泼斯坦(Alan Epstein)说，“竞争有利于美国太阳能行业，有利于该行业的就业。”

Additional reporting by Gwen Chen

就中国而言，北京方面上周宣布它将对美国的清洁能源补贴展开调查。据美国太阳能产业协会(Solar Energy Industries Association)的数据，去年美国太阳能行业对华贸易实现了2.4亿美元的贸易顺差。

当美国国际贸易委员会(International Trade Commission) 12月和来年分两阶段作出裁决时，SolarWorld和CASM也许能心随所愿地拿到对华开征反倾销税和反补贴税的结果。但这起案件无法解决一场争执：美国贸易政策的目标应该是将尽可能多的太阳能电池制造活动留在国内，还是应该接受廉价的进口品，从而寻求在价值链上游建立新的行业。

（Gwen Chen补充报道）