余弦值是什么:Business and the euro crisis 企业及欧元危机

Business and the euro crisis 
企业及欧元危机

Under the volcano 
火山口下

Europe’s companies are preparing for the worst. It will change them 
欧洲的企业做了最坏的打算，变革在即

Oct 8th 2011 | BERLIN AND PARIS | from the print edition

“THERE is nothing sinister about this,” says the chief executive of a Portuguese drugs firm. “We have to consider: what would happen with inflation, how would we get credit, collect debts and pay our suppliers and workers?” For months he and other Portuguese bosses have been rehearsing plans for what to do if the euro zone fractures or breaks apart completely. Many firms also have formal contingency plans for a sudden exit by Portugal by itself.
“这么说没什么忌讳的”一家葡萄牙制药公司的首席执行官说“我们不得不考虑：通胀发生了该怎么办？怎么才能得到贷款来偿还债务、支付供应商的费用和工人薪金？”近几个月来，他及其他葡萄牙的老板们一直在心里盘算着，一旦欧元区分裂或彻底分崩离析了，他们该怎么办。很多公司确实制定了应急计划以应对哪一天葡萄牙突然决定退出欧盟。

Such planning is not just a matter for companies in threatened economies on the periphery. Even a partial break-up would be catastrophic for companies throughout the euro zone, and pretty dire elsewhere in Europe’s single market. Like a hard punch on the jaw, it would cause painful dislocation. New currencies would have to be introduced. Panic would seize the banks on which companies depend for funding. Economic growth would hit a wall.
不仅仅是那些受到周边经济不振所威胁的公司要做这样的计划。对那些公司遍布在欧元区的企业，即便是部分国家的脱离其影响也是灾难性的，并且这种可怕的情形殃及到了其的他欧洲统一市场。像一纪重拳打在脸上，伤及筋骨。不得不考虑的还有：启用新的货币、公司所依赖获取贷款的银行业受到拖累、经济增长受阻。

This is not a calamity it is easy to plan for. News of a euro-zone fragmentation, if it comes, will come suddenly, like a declaration of war. Where countries leave, borders will likely be closed to prevent mass smuggling of euro notes and coins from “peripheral” euro-zone countries. Similar barriers are likely to paralyse cross-border electronic payments, and maybe even telecoms traffic.
这不比应对一场灾难而做的计划更轻松。如果欧元区解体的消息一旦传出，无疑像宣布一场战争即将爆发。哪个国家宣布离开，其周围邻国可能会关闭边境以防止大规模的从欧元区国家走私欧元。相似的壁垒还有冻结跨境电子支付，甚至是电信业务。

With the financial sector in disarray companies with operations across the euro zone would fend for themselves in each country. Where are their euro debtors and creditors? Which are the “German” euros, which “Greek” or “Italian”? A company treasurer would need this information on his desk in a couple of hours.
在这样混乱的形势下，与欧元区公司进行跨境贸易的公司其财务部门要多方考虑。那些欧元的借方、贷方都在哪里？哪个是“德国”欧元？哪个是“希腊”欧元？哪个是“意大利”欧元？公司的财务人员要花更长的时间把这些信息在账本上摆弄清楚。

That would be just the beginning. A company used to operating across Europe, shuttling containers daily, flipping staff from one office to another, would have to rethink its entire portfolio against a background of market chaos, bank runs and supply-chain shocks. Should it split itself into two or more parts between a “core Europe” with a hard currency and a periphery with many weak ones? New treasuries, legal identities, communication and logistics systems and so on cannot be set up overnight. But the quicker a company can do it, and the more prepared it is now, the less its business will be disrupted.
这还只是个开始。习惯了在欧元区进行跨境贸易的公司，每天穿梭往返的货柜集装箱、进进出出的员工从一个办公室到另一个办公室。在现今市场混乱、银行管制及供应链遭受的打击的背景下，他们不得不重新全盘考虑自己的业务。是否把公司一分为二或分成更多的子公司，以便与“欧元核心国”用坚挺的币种，与其他临邻国用弱势的币种做生意？新的财务制度、法规的统一、通讯、物流系统等等不是一时半会就能建立的。但是着手越快，准备越充分，企业面临的干扰就会越少。

The companies thinking the shouldn’t-be-thinkable in these ways are unwilling to share their insights. For one thing, good strategies, should there be any such, may be less good if too widely followed. And in a world already drained of confidence, one doesn’t have to be superstitious to think that talking about contingency plans makes them more likely to be needed. But plans are being hatched nonetheless.
那些觉得这样的想法是不可思议的公司不愿分享他们对事情的看法。比如说，一件事情如果计划周密，那么追随者越少越好。在这样一个信心被逐渐耗尽的世界，一个再不迷信的人也会认为讨论这些应急计划会使得企业看上去更需要它们。尽管如此，计划还是在被密谋之中了。


Shell, an Anglo-Dutch oil giant, has three scenarios for the euro zone: what it calls “muddling through”, a deepening of monetary union, or a break-up. “It would surprise me if any well-run company were not preparing itself for the worst scenarios, however remote those may be,” says Leif Johansson, former chief executive of Volvo, a Swedish manufacturer of commercial vehicles, and chairman of both Ericsson, a Swedish telecoms firm, and the European Roundtable of Industrialists. Services are springing up to help companies prepare; in June FiREapps, an Arizona-based software provider, launched a new program to help companies understand how their foreign-exchange exposure(1) might change in real time in various different reconfigurations of the euro zone.
壳牌石油，一家英国－荷兰合资的大型石油公司，对欧元区的前景描述为三部曲，叫做“涉险过关”，深化货币统一，或者解体。瑞典商用车制造商Volvo公司前总裁 ，现任瑞典通讯企业爱立信公司董事及欧洲企业家圆桌会议主席的Leif Johansson说“如果一个运营良好的企业没有做好充分的准备以应付最坏的情况那简直令人吃惊，哪怕还为时尚早”。这一组织还正协助企业做好准备。在6月，FiRapps,一家位于亚利桑那州的软件开发商， 开发了一个新的程序，用于帮助企业理解他们将面对的欧元区重组而产生的外汇风险在实际操作中的变化。

All in it together 
抱团取暖

When not planning for every contingency they can think of, Europe’s industrial bosses oscillate between fear, anger and disbelief. The bad news is occasionally interrupted by what feels like a reprieve, such as last week’s German Bundestag(2)vote in favour of more powers for the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the main fund for bailing out troubled countries. But for the most part, as with this week’s troubles at Dexia, a Franco-Belgian bank, another downgrading of Italy’s credit rating, and delays in funding for Greece, the unending flow of woe feeds businesspeople’s fear. The fear then stokes the anger and disbelief. Company bosses long to yell “You’re fired!” at any number of European politicians. They find it inconceivable that Greece—which with debts representing just 2% of euro-zone GDP is a tiny subsidiary, to their way of thinking—has been allowed to send the system spinning out of control.
并不是他们想到的每个突发状况都有应对计划，欧元区的企业主们既恐惧又气愤还参杂着质疑。不过坏消息中偶然也有一点好消息让人有了一丝喘息的机会，比如上周，德国联邦议会下议院投票支持赋予欧洲金融稳定机构更多的权力，为身陷危机的国家提供更多的资金援助。但坏消息还是占了大多数：本周，法－比合营的Dexia 银行，因意大利政府信用评级被下调后，受此拖累也面临评级被下调的危险。对希腊的援助计划被推迟，企业主的担心变成了恐惧。恐惧进而演变成愤怒、质疑。公司老板现在想对欧洲的所有政客们大喊一声“你们都被解雇了”！他们很难相信，希腊债务只占欧元区GDP的2％，这一不多的份额尽然能让原本运作良好的区域经济全面失控。

For now, most companies still reckon a euro-zone break-up is unlikely. But for such a catastrophic event, even a small probability is worrying. What’s more, the fear of calamity causes real problems even if that calamity is averted. Many firms are considering whether to relocate investment either towards more financially solid countries inside the EU, or out of Europe entirely. That is why European business will be reshaped by this crisis even if the euro zone isn’t.
直到今天，大部分公司还是不认为欧元区会解体，当然对这样的灾难性事件，即使是小概率也是致命的错误。哪怕灾难事件没有发生但对灾难的恐惧还是会引发一些问题。很多公司正考虑是把资金投向金融状况更稳定的其它欧洲国家，还是彻底投向欧洲以外的国家？这就是为什么欧元区的这场危机还没那么严重，而欧洲的企业还是要做出调整原因了。

The worries come at a time when Europe’s bigger companies are, by some measures, doing very well. Analysts expect France’s largest 40 listed companies to increase profits by 15% this year to a level nearly equal to 2008’s record high. German industry is still benefiting from a massive surge in engineering orders. The country’s engineering association is predicting a 14% jump in production by its members to !199 billion ($266 billion) this year, just exceeding 2008’s record high.
所以尽管欧洲一些较大规模的公司运营的相当不错，担忧还是在蔓延。分析家预测法国最大的40家上市公司今年的利润会有15％的增长，与2008年创下的记录持平。德国的制造业也依然握有大量的机械订单。德国制造业联盟预计今年的工业总产值会增长14％达到199B欧元(266B美元)，从而超过了2008年创下的最高纪录。


During the recession of 2008-09, European companies took harsh measures to cut costs and improve efficiency. Despite a strong recovery in most firms’ profits, they have been reluctant to shoulder new fixed costs and keen to maintain flexibility, which should help them weather another downturn. More than two-thirds of 150 German firms recently surveyed by Roland Berger, a consultancy, said that the crisis of 2008-09 brought benefits in that it helped make them more competitive.
在经济衰退的2008－2009年，欧洲的企业采用了降低成本、提高效率等严厉的措施。尽管大多数公司的收益都得到了强劲恢复，他们仍不愿意承担新的固定成本的增加，以帮助他们在下一场衰退到来时能保持应对的灵活度。一家顾问公司Rolan Berger,在对150家德国公司的调研后发现，有三分之二的公司表示，得益于2008－2009年的金融危机使得他们得竞争力更强了。

It was all going so well 
一切看起来还凑合




As well as curbing their costs, European firms benefited from shifting their gaze abroad. Their rebound from the 2008-09 recession was mainly driven by a diversion of corporate energy into Asia, Latin America, America and other overseas markets. German exports to China nearly doubled between 2008 and 2011. Volkswagen Group, Europe’s biggest carmaker, sold 1.7m cars in western Europe in the first half of 2011, just 2% more than for the same period in 2007. Sales to Asia, by contrast, leapt by 151% to 1.3m. In general Europe’s big firms rely on European customers for only half their business (see chart 1). Unfortunately the effect of the euro crisis on the global economy is now becoming a drag on robust growth elsewhere.
控制成本的同时，欧洲企业还得益于将目标市场转移至海外。他们从2008-2009年的经济衰退中恢复主要是因为公司将重心转向了亚洲、拉丁美洲、美国及其它海外市场。2008年至2011年间，德国对中国的出口贸易几乎翻了一倍。欧洲最大的汽车生产商－大众集团，今年上半年销往西欧的汽车为170万量，只比2007年同一时期多了2％。相反，销往亚洲的汽车猛增了151％，达到了130万量。通常，欧洲的大型企业只有一半的业绩来自本区域的市场(见图示1)。不幸的是，欧元区的金融危机对全球经济产生的影响已经拖累了增长势头强劲的其它经济体。

Leading indicators such as purchasing managers’ indices suggest that the euro zone’s manufacturing sector is contracting at an accelerating rate. Companies are braced for a slowdown in orders. Lutz Goebel, the boss of Henkelhausen, a mid-sized German engine manufacturer, says his customers are already starting to procrastinate over purchases of new diesel engines. Volvo, says Mr Johansson, expects customers to start hesitating over big purchases. “If they wait one month,” he says, “that takes out a twelfth of the market.”
主要经济指标，如采购经理人指数显示欧元区的制造业合同签订率保持在加速状态上。公司为订单减少做好了准备。一家中型的德国发动机制造商Henkenlhausen的老板Lutz Goebel说，他的客户已经推迟了新型柴油发动机的采购。Volvo的Mr. Johansson希望他的客户能在下大订单之前三思而行“如果他们能多等一个月，就能得到比市场价格便宜1／12的费用？”。


Firms which sell to governments have an added level of exposure. In one of the most striking responses to the euro crisis, Roche, a Swiss pharmaceutical firm, halted delivery of some of its drugs to state-owned hospitals in Greece this summer, following non-payment of its bills. The company may soon take the same tough approach with Spanish hospitals.
那些与政府做生意的公司的外汇风险在增加。导致了伴随随着欧元区经济危机的加深，出现了最强烈的反应是，就像瑞士制药厂商罗氏一样，因为没能收到货款，今年夏天停止了对希腊国立医院的一些种类的药品供货。公司很快也会对西班牙的医院采取这样的极端措施。


Smaller companies are particularly fearful. Many middling French engineering firms, says Jér?me Frantz, president of the Fédération des Industries Mécaniques, are preparing for a slowdown and drawing up plans to fire workers if necessary. Eric Chaney, chief economist at AXA, an insurer, says European firms are cutting production faster than slowing demand would require. The aim, he says, is to lower stocks and raise cash reserves in case of a liquidity crunch. Fears about the future thus quickly become self-fulfilling.
较小规模的公司恐惧尤其严重。 正如法国机械制造业联合会主席Jér?me Frantz所说, 很多中型法国机械制造公司都在准备减产，有必要的话，准备实施裁员计划。保险公司AXA的首席经济学家Eric Chaney说，欧洲的企业已先于需求的降低削减了公司的的产能。其目的是能减少库存、手里握有充足现金储备以应对流动性的紧缩。对未来的恐惧让他们很快变得把保全企业放在首位。


Finance is the area where European companies feel most vulnerable. The threat of another credit crunch terrifies them. French companies are already seeing a lending freeze as French banks become more conservative amid fears about their balance-sheets. A recent survey by the French association of corporate treasurers confirmed that financing conditions are worsening; companies are finding it harder to get bank funding, and are paying higher rates. One French carmaker recently asked for outside help to devise a plan to secure liquidity in the event of a euro-zone break-up.
欧洲的企业觉得现在最不堪一击的是他们的金融制度。另一项来自信贷紧缩的威胁也让他们吓破了胆。法国公司早已见识了法国的银行不想让自己的损益表太难看而变的很保守，以至于冻结了向企业的放贷。法国企业财务主管协会近期的一项调查明确表示金融状况正在恶化。公司要想从银行得到贷款更难，付出的利率更高。一家法国的汽车制造商近来向本区域外需求帮助，一旦欧元区解体，他们还能得到安全的流动性的保障。

Mr Frantz, whose 87-year old firm, Frantz Electrolyse, is a key supplier to Peugeot and Renault, France’s two big car manufacturers, says banks have not lent to companies like his since 2008. Small to medium companies have found other sources of credit, including government agencies. When his firm wanted to buy a new machine recently, Mr Frantz says, he got finance from Total, an oil and gas giant, in return for committing exclusively to use a Total chemical product.
Frantz先生的公司，Frantz 电器已有87年了，是法国两大汽车制造商标致和雷诺的主要供应商，他说现在银行自从2008年开始不再贷款给他们了。小型、中型的公司只能从其它渠道融资，比如政府机构。近日，当他的公司想购置新的设备，Frantz 先生只能从一家石油、天然气巨头公司－道达尔那里得到资金。作为回报，他的公司承诺生产中只使用道达尔的化工产品。

German firms, too, face worsening conditions. According to Roland Berger’s recent survey, a third of companies are seeing a decline in banks’ willingness to lend. And Italy’s CIR Group, which has interests in car components, media, energy and health care, reckons that the cost of capital(3) for Italian companies has gone up 30% over the past few months. The timing could not be worse. European companies will need to roll over a mountain of debt in the next few years. According to Standard & Poor’s, a credit-rating agency, European non-financial firms will be obliged to refinance $1.1 trillion of debt which will mature between 2011 and 2015, reflecting heavy reliance on cheap credit in the middle of the 2000s. That refinancing could be tricky, says the agency, not just because of banks’ reluctance to lend but also because credit- gobbling governments could crowd out corporate borrowers.
德国公司也同样面临着金融状况的恶化。Rolan Berger近期的调研表明，1/3的公司认为银行放贷的意愿正在下滑。 意大利CIR集团，是一家投资做汽车零配件、传媒、能源、医药的公司，据他们估算，欧洲公司过去几个月来他们的的资本金成本上升了30％，现在情况不能再糟了。接下来的几年，欧洲的企业还要翻越债务这座大山，按照美国评级机构－标普的研究，欧洲非金融类企业所需偿还的债务在2011－2015年高达1.1万亿美元，数字反映出企业在2000年中期以来对廉价信贷的多度依赖。标普认为企业再融资就是一句空话，不仅仅是因为银行不愿借贷，也是因为政府对信贷资源的虎视眈眈将公司借贷人挤的只能靠边站了。


The head of Britain’s Association of Corporate Treasurers advises his members to “keep calm and carry on” under the threat of scarcer and more costly finance. Recognising that that is hardest for small and medium-sized firms, the British government is expected to start a programme of buying bonds issued by such firms as part of its measures to pump more money into the economy.
在资金不足加剧、资本金成本不断上升的威胁下，英国企业财务主管协会的领导人给他的成员们提出的建议是“保持冷静，坚持到底”。认识到目前最困难的是中、小型企业，英国政府将启动一项程序购买这些企业发行的债券，达到向经济体注资的目的。

Cash problems, credit problems 
现金流及信贷问题

The bigger, cash-rich companies have another problem: where to keep their money while they are waiting for a better investment climate. Many have been pouring deposits into German and French banks. For Siemens, Germany’s largest company by market capitalisation, even that may have seemed too risky. Last month, according to the Financial Times, it withdrew !500m from Société Générale, a French bank, and moved it to the European Central Bank in search of a haven. French businesspeople were outraged that Siemens would do such a thing, and, worse, talk about it afterwards. Also in September, Match.com, the American owner of Meetic(4), a French online dating service, told its subsidiary to dump its French bank and switch to an American one. At the end of the month, LVMH, a luxury-goods group, sent most of its cash hoard to shareholders in Bulgari(5), an Italian firm, to close its purchase of the company. “Now I don’t have to worry about which European bank our money is safest in,” says Jean- Jacques Guiony, the group’s chief financial officer.
手里有充足现金的企业还有一个更大的问题：在等待投资环境转好的过程中，他们的钱能存在哪儿？很多人将钱存到了德国和法国的银行。所以，德国市值最大的公司－西门子看上去更危险，上周，据金融时报报道，为给企业的现金找到一个安全的避风港，他们从法国Société Générale银行取走了5亿欧元，转存到了欧洲中央银行。西门子此举激怒了法国人，还有更糟糕的事情，后面我会提到。也是在9月，美国公司Meetic在法国的提供网上约会服务的子公司Match.com，被告知金融业务由法国银行转至美国银行。这月底，奢侈品集团LVHM将其大量现金转到了其股东意大利公司Bulgari奢侈品厂商名下。并完成了对其收购的交割手续。集团首席财务官 Jean- Jacques Guiony 说“现在我们终于不用担心到底把钱放在哪家欧洲银行里才是最保险的了”


Faced with slowing sales and a lack of access to credit, companies may have to cut costs further—hard when they are already uncomfortably lean. Rodolfo de Benedetti, chief executive of the CIR Group, says that to squeeze costs any more, his firm would have to summon up
new reserves of creativity and re-engineer its processes. Some of this could in turn require new investment. Companies may take more drastic steps this time than they took in 2008, such as closing down entire divisions rather than trying to trim them incrementally.
面对的销量减少、信贷紧缩，使得本已很艰难的公司不得不一再削减成本。CIR集团总裁 Rodolfo de Benedetti 说为了压缩更多的成本，他的公司必须开动新的创意、新的技术。但这些又需要新的资金投入。公司可能还需采取比2008年时更激烈措施，比如，与其为减员伤脑筋还不如关掉整个部门。

The best strategy for a European company, it would seem, is to have as little exposure to Europe as possible. Investors and banks are busy drawing up lists of the companies which have the highest proportion of sales to countries outside Europe. Bad luck for France Télécom, for instance, with 92% of its sales in Europe. But good news for a group like LVMH, with just 34% of its revenues earned in Europe thanks to Asian consumers’ seemingly endless appetite for its baubles.
现在对欧洲企业来说，最好的办法是尽可能的减少与本区域的贸易往来。那些绝大多数的贸易额来自欧洲境外的公司，已成了投资人和银行的首选服务对象。对于92％的销售额都是针对欧洲市场的法国电信来说，运气显然太差了。但像LVMH集团就好的多，其欧洲的34％的收入，也都是得益于亚洲人对其华而不实的产品虚荣的追捧者。

The first priority for many firms is to reduce their exposure to the most troubled peripheral euro-zone countries. Telefónica, a Spanish communications group, announced in September that it would consolidate its Spanish business with its European and global headquarters in London. This is a natural progression after its 2006 purchase of O2, a mobile-phone operator based in Britain that is now the main focus of the company’s European business. But it is also an undeniably convenient moment to be pulling its centre of gravity away from Spain. The acquisition of Hochtief, a big German rival, has provided the Spanish construction group ACS with a similarly timely way to reduce its reliance on Spain’s construction sector.
很多企业现在要做的是赶紧与其麻烦不断的欧元区邻居们划清界限，西班牙通讯集团公司Telefónica, 9月份宣布将其西班牙的业务，与位于伦敦的欧洲及全球公司总部合并。公司在2006年收购了英国的移动通讯运营商O2 后，O2的主营业务就是针对整个欧洲市场的，走这一步显然是再自然不过了。但不可否认的是，西班牙人如果还想享受到以前那样优质的服务就没那么便利了。同样的，收购了自己的强劲对手－德国的Hochtief后，西班牙建筑集团ACS也减少了其对自己国内建筑部门的依赖。

The next goal for many European firms is to move even quicker into fast-growing emerging economies. The euro crisis, say business leaders, simply makes such diversification even more urgent than it was before. E.ON, Germany’s biggest utility, is selling billions of euros of European assets in order to shift its focus to emerging markets. Kl?ckner & Company, aMittelstand(6) firm which trades metals globally, bought a Brazilian trading company in May, and is preparing to open a China office.
很多欧洲企业的下一个目标是尽快融入快速增长的新兴市场。企业领导们说正是欧元区的危机加速推动了这一趋势。德国最大的公用事业公司－E.ON卖掉了在欧洲的数十亿欧元资产将公司中心转移到了新兴市场。另一家从事全球金属贸易的中型企业 Kl?ckner & Company, 在今年5月收购了一家巴西的贸易公司，并打算在中国设立公司。

Despite their interest in markets elsewhere, European businesses remain deeply committed to the EU’s single market at home, and desperate that the euro-zone crisis should not threaten it. Mutual recognition of national product rules means that a company anywhere in the EU can sell to 100m households, a market larger than America’s. It is thanks to the single market, says Mr Johansson, that Volvo has been able to reach outside Europe to achieve more than 30% of its sales in countries such as India and China; a restructured, competitive European manufacturing base and a strong home market were the crucial foundation.
尽管他们对境外市场很感兴趣，但欧洲的企业主还是非常希望欧元的危机不会威胁到他们深深依赖的欧洲统一市场（或单一市场）。有着相互认同的生产标准，使得欧洲区任何一家企业的产品都能卖到1亿个家庭里面去，这是一个远比美国大的多的市场。Johansson说，就是得益于统一市场，Volvo才能走出欧洲，将30％的汽车卖往境外的国家如中国和印度。一个重建的、有竞争力的欧洲制造业基地加上强有力的本地市场支持奠定了企业坚实的基础。

Being able to reach a large market has been a particular benefit for small and medium-sized companies. Executives are grateful that they no longer have to deal with competitive currency devaluations(7) in Europe. The old hedging strategies they had to employ were complex and often did not work. They were also difficult for small to medium-sized businesses to use.
对中、小型企业来讲能接触到境外更大的市场有着特殊的意义。公司总裁们很高兴他们终于不用再去应付欧洲区域内的竞争性货币贬值了。他们过去用的各种防御风险的招数即复杂又不那么好使，尤其是中、小型企业实际操作起来更难。


Enthusiasm for the single market does not preclude ruthlessness about the euro zone. “You need to know...who’s inside the boat, who’s outside the boat and fix it,” growls Carlos Ghosn,chief executive of carmakers Renault and Nissan. Other bosses have taken a similarly pragmatic line; eliminate uncertainty, they say, even if that means tossing some countries out of the single currency area.
忠于统一市场就意味着对欧元区其他国家不能太冷落了。“你要知道谁在船里？谁在船外？我们如何对付他？”这是汽车制造商雷诺的首席执行官Calos Ghosn 叫嚣的。其他老板们也都站在了同一条战线上，如果不这样，他们担心被当成“不确定因素”而踢出这个单一货币区。

If they ruled the world 
如果让他们当权

Germany is divided. Big firms tend to favour further support for indebted euro-zone members. Mittelstand firms (medium-sized, owner-managed companies which often dominate global niches(8)) bitterly oppose it. Just before Germany’s vote empowering the EFSF four lobby groups for the country’s biggest companies wrote urging parliamentarians to vote “yes”. But Die Familienunternehmer, a lobby group for family firms, said Germany must refuse. The reason, says Mr Goebel, who is president of Die Familienunternehmer as well as running his own firm, is that family business owners are personally liable for debts, which makes them more prudent. They would rather endure a Greek default than burden Germany with more debt.
德国人的意见产生了分歧：大公司倾向对身负债务的欧元区其他成员国提供进一步的支持。中型企业（中等规模、所有者自己管理的、在全球细分市场占领先机的企业）则痛苦的一致反对。就在德国对是否要赋予欧洲金融稳定机构更多的权力进行投票前，四个代表德国最大型公司利益的游说团体督促议员们投票“同意”。但是家族企业的游说团－ Die Familienunternehmer 说，德国人必须对此说“不”。家族企业游说团体的领导人、同时还管理着自己的企业的Mr.Goebel说，理由是，家族企业的所有者本人对公司债务负责，所以他们更得谨慎行事。他们不希望因为希腊人的过错而让德国人来背负更多的债务。



Many executives in Germany and elsewhere are uncomfortable with the idea of Eurobonds(9) which would entail the most creditworthy countries guaranteeing the debts of the weakest. And in general support for reinforcing Europe’s safety nets among European businesspeople seems to be strongest in the countries that might have most to gain from such interventions (see chart 2). But a majority of Europe’s businesspeople definitely wants politicians to do more to hold the euro zone together.
很多德国及其它地区的企业主们对欧洲债券市场提出的解决方案，即，信用最好的国家替债务状况最弱的国家做担保感到很不舒服。一般来说，尽管那些主张支持加强欧洲安全网的欧洲企业主们看上去都是最强势的，而且还会从这种干预中获利最多（见图示2）。但是，大多数企业主还是很希望政客们尽可能让欧元区保持完整。

That they don’t think the politicians are delivering on this is what makes them angry. Chief executives, especially in southern Europe, were already cross with their politicians. Now they are livid. This week, Diego Della Valle, chief executive of Tod’s, a luxury Italian leatherware brand, blasted Italian politicians in the country’s main newspapers, calling them incompetent and ill-prepared to deal with the crisis facing Europe. Sergio Marchionne, chief executive of Fiat, Italy’s biggest private company, has in the past threatened to make fewer cars in Italy because of inflexible labour laws. On October 3rd he said Fiat would pull out of Confindustria(10), Italy’s employers’ association, and negotiate its own labour deals. The company, he said, “cannot afford to operate in Italy in an environment of uncertainty that is so incongruous with the conditions that exist elsewhere”. While Fiat denies plans to move production elsewhere, statements like that keep speculation rife.
让他们气愤的是政治家们没打算这么做。特别是南部欧洲的企业首席执行官们已经与政客们打翻了。而且气的不轻。本周，意大利皮具厂商、奢侈品牌Tod的CEO Diego Della Valle在意大利的主要报纸上，指责政客们在处理、应对欧洲所面临的危机时不称职、准备不充分。意大利最大的私人企业 Fiat 的CEO. Sergio Marchionne说，在过去，因为意大利的用工法规过于教条，他们被迫减少了汽车产量。就在10月3日，他宣布退出意大利的雇主联盟协会－工业联盟。他说他的公司“不能忍受在意大利这样一个充满了不确定性的环境里进行生产活动，这里与其它区域简直是格格不入”。虽然Fiat否认有计划将汽车生产转移至其它区域，但此番言论让这种猜测风行一时。

But while businesspeople are both angry and scared, they are not blind to the fact that there may be opportunities. Even if things work out well, eggs will be broken on a scale that promises some industrial omelette-making. For example, to ensure that it stays in the euro zone and meets its commitments to reduce its debt, Portugal will shortly embark on a radical privatisation programme. TAP, the airline, ANA, the airport management company, and part of RTP, the public TV network, will all be up for sale. Given the constraints of the schedule and the financing environment, the assets should go for reasonable prices. “Buyers will make a killing,” splutters one Portuguese executive. At least some of those buyers will be businesses from elsewhere in the euro zone. Pedro Passos Coelho, Portugal’s prime minister, has already invited Germany’s Lufthansa to snap up TAP. Like Portugal, Spain and Ireland will sell some crown jewels, and the buyers may find rich pickings in the rubble.
尽管企业家们对现状即愤怒又恐惧，但他们还是察觉出其中所蕴含的机会。事情如果得到了圆满解决，就好像，得到了煎蛋生产商的承诺后鸡蛋被不偏不倚的打碎在了秤上。例如，葡萄牙为能确保留在欧元区、达到减少债务的目的，将短期内着手激进的私有化进程。航空公司TAP、机场管理公司ANA、公共电视网RTP的所属部门都将挂牌出售。在限定时间内、及相应的金融环境下，这些资产将会得到合理的出价。葡萄牙籍的CEO气愤的说“买家占了大便宜！”好在那些竞买者有一部分来自欧元区其它国家的企业。葡萄牙总理Pedro Passos Coelho已经邀请了德国汉莎航空公司争购TAP。像葡萄牙一样，西班牙和爱尔兰也将出售一些皇冠上的珠宝，买家们这回算是捡着大便宜了。


from the print edition | Briefing 

(1)Foreign Exchange Exposure 外汇风险：是指一个金融的公司、企业组织、经济实体、国家或个人在一定时期内对外经济、贸易、金融、外汇储备的管理与营运等活动中，以外币表示的资产（债权、权益）与负债（债务、义务）因未预料的外汇汇率的变动而引起的价值的增加或减少的可能性。外汇风险可能具有两种结果，或是获得利益（Gain）；或是遭受损失（Loss）。 一个国际企业组织的全部活动中，即在它的经营活动过程、结果、预期经营收益中，都存在着由于外汇汇率变化而引起的外汇风险。在经营活动中的风险为交易风险（Transaction Exposure），在经营活动结果中的风险为会计风险（Accounting Exposure）预期经营收益的风险为经济风险（Economic Exposure）。 

(2)The Bundestag (Federal Diet; pronounced [?b?nd?sta?k]) is a federal legislative body in Germany. In practice Germany is governed by a bicameral legislature, of which the Bundestag serves as the lower house and the Bundesrat the upper house. The Bundestag is established by the German Basic Law of 1949, as the successor to the earlier Reichstag. Norbert Lammert is the current President of the Bundestag. 

(3) The cost of capital is a term used in the field of financial investment to refer to the cost of a company's funds (both debt and equity), or, from an investor's point of view "the shareholder's required return on a portfolio of all the company's existing securities". It is used to evaluate new projects of a company as it is the minimum return that investors expect for providing capital to the company, thus setting a benchmark that a new project has to meet.
-by Wikipedia
a. 资本成本 ：所谓资本成本（cost of capital）就是资本的一种机会成本，是资本报酬率之最低要求，其高低取决于资金投向何处，而非来自何处；所以资金之投入，其相对的风险相同...
b.资金成本：资金成本（Cost of Capital）是以百分率表示的企业取得并使用资金所负担的成本，它是企业经营权与资金所有权分离的结果。 
(4) Meetic is an online dating service founded in November 2001 and publicly quoted since October 2005. It is among the main firms in its industry in Europe. Meetic was founded by Marc Simoncini.-by Wikipedia
According to JupiterResearch, Meetic is the largest online dating service in Europe. The service had 525,000 subscribers in 2007.By February 2009, when the company acquired the European activities of Match.com, it grew to have more than 30 million subscribers.
The service's slogan is "Same game, new rules."

(5) Bulgari. Since 1884, Bulgari has been setting the pace for Italian style in jewellery, watches, accessories, fragrances, skincare and leather goods. 

(6)Mittelstand refers to small and medium-sized enterprises in German-speaking countries, especially in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. Economic and business historians have been increasingly giving Mittelstand companies more and more credit for Germany's economic growth in the beginning of the 20th century. 
The term is not officially defined or self-explanatory. The German word 'Stand' refers to a medieval model of society where the position of an individual was defined either by birth or profession. Basically there was three levels, the upper one being the aristocracy, the middle one being the free bourgeoisie of the cities and the lower one the peasants. Today, the term is used with two meanings. The first meaning refers to small and medium sized enterprises, SME ('kleine und mittlere Unternehmen', KMU), defined by number of employees and turnover. The second meaning refers to any family run or owned business (which doesn't have to be a SME). The correct term to describe households with medium or higher income would be 'Mittelschicht' with the English translation middle class. However, the German word 'Mittelklasse' refers to medium-sized cars.

(7)competitive Currency devaluation ：The devaluation of a country's currency to make its economy more competitive in international trade, rather than to correct an ongoing disequilibrium in the exchange rate. 

(8)Niche market: a specialized but profitable corner of the market

(9)A Eurobond is an international bond that is denominated in a currency not native to the country where it is issued. It can be categorised according to the currency in which it is issued. London is one of the centers of the Eurobond market, but Eurobonds may be traded throughout the world - for example in Singapore or Tokyo.
Eurobonds are named after the currency they are denominated in. For example, Euroyen and Eurodollar bonds are denominated in Japanese yen and American dollars respectively. A Eurobond is normally a bearer bond, payable to the bearer. It is also free of withholding tax. The bank will pay the holder of the coupon the interest payment due. Usually, no official records are kept.
The first European Eurobonds were issued in 1963 by Italian motorway network Autostrade.[2] The $15 million six year loan was arranged by London bankers S. G. Warburg.[3][4]
The majority of Eurobonds are now owned in 'electronic' rather than physical form. The bonds are held and traded within one of the clearing systems (Euroclear and Clearstream being the most common). Coupons are paid electronically via the clearing systems to the holder of the Eurobond (or their nominee account).
Not to be confused with the bonds, which would be backed collectively by all eurozone countries, that have been proposed as a permanent solution to the sovereign debt crisis of 2011[1].

国际债券 (Eurobond) 是指计价货币并非发行地或交易地的货币的债券。虽然英文名为Eurobond，但它与欧元 (Euro) 没关系，甚至与地理上的欧洲没关系，例如一家公司 (不论公司所在地) 在新加坡发行或交易的日圆债券便是国际债券 (Eurobond)。
国际债券并以其计价货币命名，如以日圆计价的便称日圆国际债券 (Euroyen Bond)，以美元计价的便称美元国际债券 (Eurodollar Bond)，国际债券通常为不记名债券 (Bearer Bond)，也就是发行公司或政府没有把所有人姓名登录在名册上的债券，其利息也不用预扣所得税。

(10)Confindustria is the Italian employers' federation, founded in 1910. It groups together more than 113,000 voluntary member companies, accounting for nearly 4,200,000 individuals. It aims to help Italy's economic growth, assisting, in doing so, its members. It is a member of the International Organisation of Employers (IOE).
Members of Confindustria include ANIMA, Federation of the Italian Associations of Mechanical and Engineering Industries.