桃濑樱花作品:控制人口：改善气候变化的廉价手段

控制人口——改善气候变化的廉价手段

There's no one way to suddenly cut carbon emissions, but better family planning where it's most needed is a cost-effective start

既然迅速减少碳排放尚无办法，在这些亟需减少碳排放的地区实行合理生育计划性价比最高。

Thomas Lovejoy 

托马斯 洛夫乔伊

On October 31, according to forecasts, the 7 billionth person will be born. A few weeks before this milestone, Adnan Mevic, whom the United Nations declared Baby 6 Billion in 1999, celebrated one of his own. He turned 12.

10月31日，根据预报，全球第70亿个人即将出生。而在该里程碑的数星期前，在1999年被联合国宣布为全球第60亿个人的Adnan Mevic，刚刚度过自己的12岁生日。

More than 200,000 people are added to the population each day, and we're expected to keep growing for years to come, reaching anywhere from 8 billion to 11 billion mid-century.

每天有超过20万人出生，从而我们可以预计到，如果在以后的日子里人口不断增长，在世纪中叶将会达到80亿至110亿。

The idea of living sustainably, of "going green", has recently become a buzzword when talking about everything from energy to water to agriculture. We certify energy-efficient LEED buildings. We build electric cars. We invest in solar power. But in terms of our own numbers, we are anything but sustainable.

每当提到能源、水环境或者农业之类的东西，这些关于可持续地生活、变得环保之类的理念最近已变为了流行词。我们建造了节能环保的绿色建筑，我们制造了电动车，我们投资太阳能。可是就我们的人口来说，只要可持续就可无虞。

Of course, consumption is a big part of the problem. With less than 5% of the world's population, the US consumes about one-fifth of the world's energy. We're among the top countries in the world in terms of per-capita emissions, and the average American is responsible for about 200 times as much carbon as the average Ethiopian.

当然，消耗是这个问题的重中之重。美国凭着少于世界5%的人口，消耗了大约五分之一的能源。我们是世界上人均排放最多的国家之一，平均每个美国人承担了200倍于阿比西尼亚人的碳排放。

But it's the poorest areas of the world, those least responsible for the generation of greenhouse gases, that are disproportionately feeling the effects of climate change.

但是阿比西尼亚是世界上最穷的国家之一，对于那些产生温室气体最少的地区，他们很难对于气候变化的影响有所感受。

Over-exploitation and habitat loss as a result of population pressures is also accelerating the extinction of plant and animal species, undermining the poor in parts of the world where people are heavily dependent on nature for livelihoods. Areas of rapid population growth overlay those with high numbers of threatened and vulnerable plant species, and much of the coming growth is expected to take place in the tropics, where ecosystems harbour the planet's richest forms of biodiversity.

由于人口压力导致的过度开发和动植物栖息地丧失也在加速它们的灭亡，也导致了世界上部分强烈依赖自然资源地区的人口陷入贫穷。人口的快速增加吞噬了大量的濒危植物物种的生存空间，并且在赤道地区即将迎来一波人口增长的高峰，而那里有着最丰富植物多样性的生态系统。

Responding to climate change and protecting plant and animal species requires integrated solutions from governments, businesses and advocates. We need to reduce land-based pollution and stop destructive fishing practices that weaken coral reefs. We need land use reforms, government incentives for developing biofuels and alternative energy sources, and education. However, doing any of that without also making efforts to slow population growth makes an uphill climb even more difficult.

为了应对气候变化和保护动植物物种，需要的是来自政府、商业机构和倡议人士的协同方案。我们需要减少土地污染、停止破坏珊瑚礁的捕鱼作业、开展土地使用改革，推动政府开发生物燃料和多种能源渠道，以及发展这方面的教育。不过，离开了减缓人口增长的努力，任何上述方面的举措都会让我们的努力步履维艰。

It's unpopular to apply sustainability to the concept of population growth, as the word "population" evokes worries about state control and limits on reproductive freedom. But slower population growth can not only lessen vulnerability to climate change impacts, it also has the potential to significantly reduce future greenhouse gas emissions. Following a slower population growth path could reduce fossil fuel emissions by an extra 1.1 billion tonnes of carbon per year by 2050.

由于“人口”这个词会导致对于国家控制以及生育自由限制方面的忧虑，将可持续性加到人口增长的概念上并不为人所乐见。但是减缓人口增长不但能减轻气候变化影响的严重性，也具有显著减少未来温室气体排放的潜力。如果人口增长放缓，那么到2050年，化石燃料的排放每年将会减少11亿吨的碳排放。

About half of those reductions would come from fertility decline in the United States and developing countries, and could be achieved simply through meeting existing demand for family planning services. More than 200 million women in developing countries want to avoid pregnancy, but need modern contraception. The emissions reductions that could be expected through meeting these family planning needs would be roughly equivalent to the reductions that would come from ending all tropical deforestation.

将近一半的减排将会来自美国和其他发展中国家的生育率降低，而这些只需简单地维持现有的家庭生育计划。发展中国家超过2亿的妇女希望避孕，不过她们需要现代化的手段。因此只需要迎合这些家庭的要求所达到的减排量，就可以几乎相抵整个赤道地区森林的破坏。

Compared with the technological investments needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions globally, the cost of meeting the current demand for family planning is cheap. Emissions averted through investments in family planning would cost about $4.50 per tonne of carbon dioxide, compared with options such as solar power ($30 per tonne) or carbon capture and storage from new coal plants ($60 per tonne).

与那些为了在全球范围内减少温室气体排放而花费在技术研发上的费用相比，维持现有的生育计划更为省钱。通过节育而达到的减排量相当于每吨二氧化碳只花费了4.5美元，而相比别的选项，太阳能技术每吨需要30美元，碳捕捉技术和新式矿石工厂的节省每吨需要60美元。

Every human being has a right to a certain quality of life, which is harder to achieve with growing population. Human numbers are central to a achieving a sustainable future. As we celebrate the birth of the 7 billionth child, we should also make investments now to improve his or her future.

每一个人都有保证其生存质量的权利，而在不断增长的人口面前它已越难越难以达到。人口数量对于实现一个可持续的未来至关重要。当我们庆祝第70亿个婴儿出生时，我们也应该为改善他/她的未来投资。

Thomas Lovejoy is a conservation biologist who coined the term "biological diversity". He currently holds the Biodiversity Chair at the Heinz Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment based in Washington, DC, and serves on the Board of Directors for Population Action International.

后注：托马斯洛夫乔伊是创造了“生物多样性”这个观念的保护生物学家，他最近执掌地处华盛顿州的海因茨科学、经济、环境研究中心的生物多样性方面的主席，并且在国际人口行动阻止任职董事。