中国“老龄经济”兴起

在上海市政府新建的一家老年人社区中心，方连山（音译）弓着腰，吃着一盘炒牛肉和一塑料碗米饭。

回想起自己为什么不愿意和41岁的独生子生活在一起时，这位78岁的老人说道：“我们之间有代沟...最好给彼此留些空间。”

以前，由于住宅短缺，中国人别无选择，只能住在一起，但方连山表示，人们如今受到了西方思潮的影响。

“我的许多朋友都独自生活。他们不喜欢和子女住在一起，”方连山说道。他本人就住在自己的房子里。

经济增长、独生子女政策以及近来的房地产繁荣，共同促成了中国领取养老金的人大幅增加，每个独生子女最多要照料6位父辈和祖辈的老人。

中国上周四公布的人口普查结果显示，中国60岁以上的老人增加了约4800万人，占总人口的13.3%。10年前，这一比例为略高于10%。过去10年，中国总人口增长了5.84%，目前为13.39亿人。

上海市年逾六旬的人口达到五分之一，预计到2030年将上升至29%。

中国人对于孝道和退休生活的态度正在发生里程碑式的转变，方连山等人走在了潮流的前面。这些转变正推动着中国老龄人产业的快速发展。房地产开发商、保险公司和国内外投资者准备拿出上百亿元人民币资金，投入护理行业中的一小块市场：让老年人住进有“银色之城(silvertown)”之称的私营老年公寓。

鉴于目前只有1.3%的老人住在政府设立的养老院里，从为生活能够自理的老人提供的辅助型生活社区，到为体弱老人提供的护理型养老院，社会上对于为养老金领取者提供膳宿的民营机构的需求大幅上升。

分析人士表示，随着政府的限制措施开始迫使房地产开发商屈服，以及在房地产繁荣的推动下，大城市里在上世纪90年代长期城市住宅私有化时获得了住房的老人们个人财富升值，大规模投资的条件已经成熟。

文化变迁是其中很重要的一个原因：根据中国引以为豪的长期孝道传统，上了年纪的父母决不能单独居住；但这一观念的影响力近来已有所消减，超过半数老年人——在大城市中这一比例更高——已经和子女分开居住。这一传统受到了如此严重的侵蚀，以致于中国政府最近出台了一项法律，强制要求成年子女回家探望年迈的父母。

更令人惊讶的是，许多老年人对这种变化表示欢迎：奥美(Ogilvy)进行的一项调查显示，26%的受访者表示同意到养老院居住。

直到目前，愿意到退休社区居住的老人并没有太多的选择。

“银色产业(silver industry)仍处于发展初期，”鞠川阳子(Yoko Marikawa)表示。她是“银色之城”一词的发明者，经营着一家养老院方面的专业咨询机构。

她说，投资者以前出于文化方面的原因回避着银色产业：“人们认为东方文化与西方文化迥然不同……投资者觉得这是一个不利因素。”

现在情况正在发生改变。上海最大私营老年社区亲和源(Cherish Yearn)的董事长奚志勇说：“社会变迁意味着‘老年护理’服务市场有巨大的利润空间。”

亲和源的收费相当高昂，但它也提供一些特殊的待遇，比如健身俱乐部、医院、安排社交生活的个人助理、保健、购物和居民娱乐设施。奚志勇表示，85%的居室都已售出。

但他抱怨说，政府虽然鼓励私人投资，但在硬件和服务标准等问题上存在政策真空，给投资带来了风险。不过，他还是计划建立更多的亲和源社区。“中国最有钱的是老年人，”他表示。

Fang Lianshan hunches over aplate of stir-fried beef and a plastic rice bowl in one of the Shanghaigovernment’s new community centres for elderly people.

The 78-year-old reflects on why he prefers not to live with his41-year-old only son. “There is a generation gap ... it is better togive each other some space.”

Previously, the Chinese had no choice but to live together because ofthe shortage of housing, but Mr Fang says people are now influenced bywestern thinking.

“Most of my friends live alone. They are not happy to live with their children,” says Mr Fang, who lives in his own flat.

A combination of economic growth, theone-child policy and recent property boom has formed a bulge in thenumber of pensioners in China, with the country’s single childrenpreparing to care for as many as six parents and grandparents perperson.

China published census results on Thursday, which showed the numberof people over the age of 60 rose by about 48m, reaching 13.3 per centof the population. Ten years ago, they accounted for slightly more than a10th of the population. China’s total population is now 1.339bn – up5.84 per cent from the last decade.

A fifth of Shanghai’s population is already over 60. That figure is forecast to rise to 29 per cent by 2030.

People such as Mr Fang are at the vanguard of a landmark shift inattitudes toward filial piety and life beyond work – changes that arefuelling rapid growth in the business of old age in China. Propertydevelopers, insurance companies, foreign and domestic investors arepoised to invest tens of billions of renminbi in only one slice of thecaring business: housing people in private retirement complexes known as“silvertowns”.

With only 1.3 per cent of elderly people currently living ingovernment retirement homes, demand for private accommodation forpensioners – from assisted living communities for the ambulatory tonursing homes for the debilitated – has risen sharply.

As government restrictions begin to squeeze property developers – andthe property boom fuels the personal wealth of old people in bigcities, who obtained flats when long-term urban housing was privatisedin the 1990s – conditions are ripe for an investment boom, analysts say.

Cultural change is a big part of it: China’s much-vaunted traditionof filial piety has long decreed that elderly parents should never livealone; but recently it has been eroded to the point at which more thanhalf of old people – and a far higher proportion in big cities – alreadylive apart from their children. Erosion of such tradition is so seriousthat Beijing recently introduced a law to compel adult children tovisit their elderly parents.

Still more surprisingly, many old people welcome the change:according to a study by Ogilvy, 26 per cent of those surveyed said theywould agree to live in a retirement home.

Until now, people who preferred living in a retirement community had few options.

“The silver industry is still in its infancy,” says Yoko Marikawa,who runs a speciality business consultancy on retirement complexes, andcoined the term “silvertowns”.

She says investors have previously shied away from the industry forcultural reasons: “People think oriental culture is very different fromwestern culture . . . investors think that is a disadvantage.”

Now, that is changing, says Xi Zhiyong, chairman of Cherish Yearn,which owns Shanghai’s largest private old age community: “Social changemeans there is a big profit space in the market for ‘eldercare’services.”

Cherish Yearn is relatively expensive – but it offers perks such as asports club, hospital and personal assistants to arrange the sociallife, health, shopping and entertainment of residents, and Mr Xi says 85per cent of places have been sold.

He complains however that – although the government encouragesprivate investment – a policy vacuum in regard to issues such asstandards of hardware and service make investing risky. He neverthelessintends to open more Cherish Yearns. “The richest people in China arethe elderly,” he says.