Can Internet accurately gauge public opinion?

By Zhang Yin  (People's Daily)

08:56, October 29, 2011

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Read the other part of the article:
Who is shaping China's online public opinion?

Edited and Translated by People's Daily Online

Reporter: The number of netizens in China has exceeded 480 million. To what extent does Internet public opinion represent all netizens, and to what extent does Internet public opinion represent the public opinion of society as a whole?

Ye Qing: I think the degrees of such representations are growing day by day because more and more people use microblogs. Behind each of them, there may be a family or a group. Therefore opinions expressed by them must not be ignored. 

Chen Changfeng: On the other hand, I think the current Internet public opinion is still not exactly the same as real public opinion. For example, the current microblog is weakening the virtualization by means such as the real-name authentication. On most occasions, the social strata are also reflected on the micro-blog. For example, currently, the most popular microblogs belong to celebrities of the cultural, entertainment, commercial and political circles. The number of these celebrities is not large, but their influence is powerful. 

After the earthquake and tsunami occurred in Japan, the "salt scare" appeared in many cities of China. According to my random statistics, about 95 percent of the microblog comments on the incident were refuting the rumor and discussing the issue in a rational way. However, actually, people in many places were still rushing to buy salt. Therefore, the real public opinion is still somewhat different from the network public opinion. 

Yu Guoming: The public opinions on microblog are neither equal to that on the Internet nor equal to the opinions of all people in the real society. Although they are not the same, their essence is relevant. This means that the online public opinions are part of social public opinions and the public opinions on microblogs are part of online public opinions. 

The significance and value of the public opinions on microblogs cannot be denied just because they do not fully represent public opinions. It is only necessary to understand and properly handle the extent to which the opinions expressed on microblogs can be regarded as being representative of public opinion. Who are expressing such public opinions or what social characteristics they have should be analyzed. 

Han Liyong: The online public opinions are part of social public opinions. Another characteristic of online expressions is the relevance of the means of expression to online participation. To draw more online attention, Internet users should use the means of expression that are popular with the masses. Therefore, if celebrities, businessmen and officials use "aggressive" words to express opinions online, they will unlikely produce good results. 

Wang Yukai: As an incident spreads on the Internet, whether or not the mainstream public opinion is formed is crucial. When enough facts about the incident are exposed, mainstream public opinion will take shape. As more facts are exposed and the public gets closer to the truth, there will be changes in mainstream public opinion to truly reflect the development of the incident itself. 

Therefore, we should attach importance to mainstream public opinion. When an incident occurs, thousands of netizens will express their opinions about the incident, and there are bound to be irrational views. Under such a context, we should pay our attention to mainstream public opinion because in most cases, mainstream public opinion makes great sense and can be used to examine government policies and performances. Furthermore, the formation of mainstream public opinion can also correct netizens' irrational views. 

Reporter, Wang Shuhuai

Wang Yukai, a professor at the Chinese Academy of Governance

Ye Qing, a deputy to the National People's Congress and deputy director of the Hubei Provincial Bureau of Statistics

Deng Jianwei, director of the Publicity Department under the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Public Security

Yu Guoming, a professor at the School of Journalism under Renmin University of China

Chen Changfeng, deputy dean of the School of Journalism and Communication under Tsinghua University 

Han Liyong, a veteran netizen and a former moderator of popular Tianya discussion forum 

Zhu Huaxin, secretary-general of the Public Opinion Monitoring Office under People's Daily Online

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