巫神归来有手游吗:中国拒绝让人民币快速升值

2011年 10月 27日 10:03 中国拒绝让人民币快速升值
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中国表示，人民币在短期内快速升值是不可能的，因为这会严重阻碍中国经济增长。这是迄今为止中国对美国要求人民币加快升值速度所做出的最强烈的回应之一。

Bloomberg News中国外交部发言人周三的表态反映出在国内经济增长放缓且美欧经济停滞威胁到对中国出口商品的需求的情况下，中国的焦虑越来越大。

外交部做出此番表态之前，中国国务院总理温家宝周二称中国应适时适度地“微调” 宏观调控政策，以支撑经济增长。这加大了外界的猜测，即中国可能在未来某一时刻转变当前抑制通胀的工作重心。人民币升值可能是降低通胀率的一种方法，但重新关注经济增长可能会令北京考虑放慢人民币升值速度，以此帮助中国出口企业。

中国现在面临两难选择：一些经济学家已经开始持这种观点，即中国的现状证明放慢人民币升值速度是合理的；但要求中国继续让人民币升值的外部压力可能仍然很大。

外交部发言人姜瑜在例行记者会上说，自2005年以来，人民币已大幅升值，对美元累计升幅达30%，趋近合理均衡水平。

姜瑜说，短期内要求中国大幅度升值是不合理的。如果中国经济增速放缓，只会减少全球总需求。

在公开场合谈到人民币汇率问题时，中国官员总是强调人民币汇率形成机制改革是渐进的，但他们也从未明确表示人民币快速升值是不可能的。

渣打银行（Standard Chartered）经济学家王志浩（Stephen Green）周二预测，2012年，人民币兑美元的升值幅度将从2011年的5.5%降至3%至4%，因为中国经济增速正在放缓。

周三，美银美林（Bank of America-Merrill Lynch）经济学家陆挺表示，由于近期美元走强，人民币兑一篮子货币自7月底以来实际升值4.1%。

陆挺在给客户的一份报告中说，我们预计短期内人民币兑美元的升值空间很小。但鉴于来自美国的压力，人民币贬值同样也是不可能的。

但在经济学家看来，中国经济增速不会大幅放缓。渣打银行的王志浩预测，中国经济明年增速将达8.5%，而2011年前三个季度的经济增速为9.4%。

短期内，国际上要求中国加快人民币升值速度的政治压力不太可能减轻。美国参议院通过的因汇率政策惩罚中国的法案可能会在众议院陷入僵局，但2012年11月的美国总统大选则可能至少在明年让这一问题始终成为报纸的头条消息。共和党颇有希望的总统候选人罗姆尼（Mitt Romney）已经承诺将中国列为汇率操纵国。

除了人民币汇率，中国还有其它已经正在使用的手段以“微调”经济政策。政府已经推出相关举措支持渴求信贷的小微企业。分析师说，北京可能取消对银行贷款的限制。

由于通胀仍然令人担忧地处于高位，政府推出降息等力度更大的刺激措施看来不太可能。温家宝在周二的讲话中重申了以下观点：稳定物价仍是政府的首要任务。

中国官员常常指出，中国贸易顺差在经济中所占比重已经收缩。此番言论旨在强调中国经济已经朝侧重内需的方向实现重新平衡。中国商务部官员上周说，今年头9个月，中国贸易顺差占国内生产总值（GDP）的比例约为2%，2010年这一比例为3.1%。

周三尾盘，美元兑人民币汇率从周二尾盘的6.3604元跌至6.3533元，人民币兑美元汇率连续第四个交易日走高。交易员表示，人民币兑美元汇率走高的部分原因是，市场预期美国副国务卿伯恩斯（William Burns）本周四访问北京期间，美国仍将就人民币升值问题向中国施压。

今年以来，人民币兑美元汇率已经上涨了3.7%；自2010年6月以来则上涨了7.4%。从2010年6月起，中国不再实施人民币盯住美元的政策。

Aaron Back

China Calls Rapid Yuan Rise Impossible

China said that rapid yuan appreciation in the near term is out of the question as it would harm China's economic growth, in one of the strongest responses yet to U.S. pressure for a faster rise in the currency.

The comments by a spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Wednesday reflect China's growing anxiety as its domestic economy slows and demand for its exports is threatened by economic stagnation in Europe and the U.S.

The comments also come after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on Tuesday called for China to 'fine-tune' its economic policies to support growth, adding to speculation that China may at some point shift away from its focus on curbing inflation. Yuan appreciation could be one way to offset inflation, but a return to a growth focus could lead to Beijing considering slowing the trend as a way to help China's exporters.

China now faces a dilemma, as some economists have begun arguing that the country's situation justifies slower yuan appreciation, while external pressure on China to keep the yuan rising is likely to remain intense.

Since 2005, the yuan has risen around 30% against the U.S. dollar, and it is now 'close to a reasonable equilibrium level,' Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said at a regular press briefing.

'In the short term, pushing for rapid yuan appreciation is not possible. If Chinese economic growth slows, it will reduce global aggregate demand,' Ms. Jiang said.

In public comments about the issue, Chinese officials have stressed that yuan reform will be gradual, but haven't explicitly said that rapid appreciation is off the table.

Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green projected Tuesday that the yuan's appreciation against the dollar will slow to 3% to 4% in 2012 from 5.5% in 2011, due to China's slowing economic growth.


On Wednesday, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist Lu Ting said that due to recent dollar strength, the yuan has actually appreciated by 4.1% against a broader basket of currencies since the end of July.

'We will expect the room for [appreciation against the dollar] to be quite small in the near term, though depreciation is equally unlikely given the pressures from the U.S.,' Mr. Lu said in a note to clients.

Economists aren't expecting a catastrophic slowdown for the Chinese economy. Standard Chartered's Mr. Green forecasts that the Chinese economy will grow 8.5% next year, down from 9.4% growth in the first three quarters of 2011.

Political pressure on China from abroad to allow faster yuan appreciation is unlikely to abate in the near future. A U.S. Senate bill that would penalize China for its currency policies may be stalled in the House of Representatives, but the U.S. presidential elections in November 2012 are likely to keep the issue in the headlines for at least the next year, with Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney already pledging to declare China a currency manipulator.

China has other levers that it is already pulling to fine-tune its economic policy beyond the yuan's value. Measures are being rolled out to support smaller companies, which have been starved of access to credit. And Beijing may move to lift restrictions on bank lending, analysts say.

Stronger stimulus measures like interest rate cuts don't look likely, with inflation still alarmingly elevated. In his comments on Tuesday, Mr. Wen reiterated that maintaining price stability remains the government's top priority.

Chinese officials frequently point out that the country's trade surplus has been shrinking as a percentage of its economy, aiming to reinforce the case that China is already rebalancing toward domestic demand. In the first nine months of the year, China's trade surplus accounted for around 2% of gross domestic product, compared with 3.1% in 2010, Ministry of Commerce officials said last week.

The dollar late Wednesday was at 6.3533 from 6.3604 late Tuesday, with the yuan higher against the dollar for the fourth straight trading day. Traders said the currency is rising partly due to expectations that the U.S. will keep applying pressure for appreciation during visit by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns to Beijing on Thursday.

The yuan has risen 3.7% against the U.S. currency so far this year and 7.4% since June 2010, when China essentially unpegged its currency from the dollar.

Aaron Back