双色球历史比较器查:中国：这么多美元怎么办？

中国：这么多美元怎么办？作者：英国《金融时报》驻北京首席记者杰夫?代尔(Geoff Dyer) 2009-02-24 选择字号: 大 中 小
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2007年6月百仕通(Blackstone)上市，已被视为美国金融泡沫的象征事件之一，标志着一个时代的结束，某些最精明的华尔街人士在那时套现离场。 然而，这家私人股本集团的上市，也可以说掀开了金融历史的另一篇章，将塑造走出当前危机后的世界：正是在这一刻，中国真正开始对自身与美国密切的金融联系产生疑问。百仕通股价缩水84% 中国的主权财富基金——中国投资有限责任公司(CIC)尚未投入正式运营，就斥资30亿美元买入百仕通9.9%股权。由于百仕通的股价自上市后下跌了84%，中投的新高管们成为网络博主发泄怒火的目标，这些博主认为中国在这笔交易中上当受骗了。聊天室近期的一篇帖子写道：“他们比战争时期的卖国贼还坏。”另一篇帖子抱怨道：“所谓的‘专家'盲目崇拜美国。”中国拥有近2万亿美元外汇储备，规模为全球之最，在外界看来，这是一大优势，是对抗经济动荡的一张保险单。但在中国国内，公众乃至部分政策制定者，正日益将这些储备看作伤脑筋的东西——一个巨大的资源池，没有用在国内，而如果美元贬值，它也将随之贬值。人们问道，这样一个相对贫穷的国家，为什么要提供资金给这样一个富国？即便是在精英阶层，偶尔也会爆发出这种挫折感。中国银监会(CBRC)培训中心主任罗平上周访问纽约时抱怨道：“我们恨你们。一旦你们开始发行1万亿美元至2万亿美元的债券……我们知道美元会贬值。因此我们恨你们这些家伙，但我们没办法。”随着中国经济急剧放缓，有关如何管理外汇储备的辩论日趋激烈。有人提议将这些钱用在国内，还有人认为应该将投资多元化，而继续买入美国国债的共识正受到抨击。对奥巴马政府来说，这场争论事关重大。至少，中国政府在试图影响美国的经济政策方面，可能会变得更加有力。中国社科院知名经济学家余永定表示：“（中美之间）应该更加互让；应当有捍卫我们利益的某种保证。”他说，鉴于中国在填补美国赤字中扮演的重要角色，华盛顿“至少应该好一点”。在近期金融史上，中国外汇储备激增已成为比较引人瞩目的事件之一。官方数字是1.95万亿美元，但据长期关注中国外汇资产的经济学家、纽约智库——对外关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)的布拉德?赛斯特(Brad Setser)估计，实际规模更接近于2.3万亿美元，相当于每个中国人逾1600美元。“美国从未如此依赖别国政府提供资金”赛斯特估计，在总储备中，约1.7万亿是投资于美元资产，中国政府因此成为美国最大的债主。去年，在国内经济经受巨大压力之时，中国仍借给美国逾4000亿美元，相当于中国国内生产总值(GDP)的10%以上。赛斯特在近期的一份报告中写道：“中国日渐成为市场上美国国债的单一最大买家。美国从未如此依赖别国政府提供资金。”在中国国内，投资于美国的规模一段时期以来备受非议。中投创建于2007年，所管理资产仅相当于总储备的10%左右，但已成为批评的焦点。不光投资百仕通失利，在摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)股价大跌之前，中投还向其投资了50亿美元。中投在美国货币市场基金Reserve Primary Fund也有投资，该基金在雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产之后，冻结了赎回。
中国：这么多美元怎么办？作者：英国《金融时报》驻北京首席记者杰夫?代尔(Geoff Dyer) 2009-02-24 选择字号: 大 中 小
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一位为中投提供海外战略建议的欧洲银行家表示：“中国官员面临十分独特的处境——他们的每一项决策，都被放到媒体和网上辩论、分析，还经常受到抨击。我感觉他们已经吓坏了。”几乎每周都有新提议产生，力图找到投资外汇储备的更好方法。官方媒体本周报道，可能设立一只基金，利用外汇储备来支持石油公司的海外投资。最近，中国企业接二连三地达成自然资源协议，最惹人瞩目的是中铝(Chinalco)计划投资于力拓(Rio Tinto)，但这些协议无一直接牵涉到外汇储备。另一个备受推崇的计划是，由中国财政部向央行“借入”美元储备，转换成本币，用于社会项目。 甚至负责管理大部分储备的国家外汇管理局(Safe)也在上周承认，该局正在论证新的方法。外管局副局长邓先宏表示：“我们将积极扩大利用外汇储备的渠道和途径。特别是，我们将探索如何让外汇储备更好地服务于国内经济发展。”中国仍有必要继续购买美国国债不过，中国官员意识到，中国仍有充足理由继续购买美国国债。如果当局希望以流动资产的形式持有巨额储备的大部分，那么几乎没什么选择能比得上美国国债市场的深度。而如果中国不想积累这么多储备，它就必须让本币升值——在出口暴跌之际，这恰是中国政府所不乐见的。中国领导人已明确表示，至少在短期内，中国将继续支持美国市场。在危机时期，他们希望被视作负责任的世界公民。他们也知道，如果中国释出避免美元投资的强烈信号，就会损害自己手上的庞大美元资产的价值。中国总理温家宝最近接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示：“我们相信，保持稳定的国际金融市场有利于支持市场信心……和国际市场的尽快复苏，”尽管他暗示危机结束之后会改变战略。正如《中国经济季刊》(China Economic Quarterly)执行总编葛艺豪(Arthur Kroeber)所言：“中国的预设政策是不惜一切代价保持稳定。他们不希望在不稳定的时候惹事。”然而，如果说中国除了继续购买美国国债之外别无选择，它仍可设法将自己的投资转化为某种影响力。接近政府的不止一个智库，已经奉命设想中国能够争取的各种让步，以换取中国在国际经济事务中扮演更大角色。上海国际问题研究所(Shanghai Institute for International Studies)的査晓刚公布了一份“经济愿望清单”，其中包括美国放松对中国高科技出口的限制。中国政策制定者对美国金融政策的批评声也日益高涨。上周罗平的尖锐评论，是中国担忧美元危机的最生动展示。但高层领导也给出了其它暗示。美国前财长汉克?保尔森(Hank Paulson) 去年12月份访问北京时，中国国务院副总理王岐山对其表示：“我们希望美国方面将会……保证中国在美国的资产和投资的安全。”鉴于公众在外汇储备问题上的疑虑，北京采取更为强硬的立场将会受到国内拥护。北京正在讨论的想法之一，是要求国际货币基金组织(IMF)拥有更大权力，能够就美国经济及其金融体系的健康发表中肯的评判。官员们还希望将购买美国国债用作外交武器，反对美方的保护主义措施。“象正常的债权人那样行事”可以说，中国已经显示出其可以影响美国决定。经济学家们表示，去年美国布什政府被迫对房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)进行资本结构重组的原因之一，是因为中国开始出售这两家美国房贷机构的债券，转而购买美国国债，赛斯特称：“中国开始象一个正常的债权人那样行事了。”中国对美国政策的影响，最终面临着两大限制。美元作为全球储备货币的地位，给予美国巨大的灵活性，这是其它拥有巨额赤字的国家所不具备的，这令许多中国官员感到头疼。中国不愿让人民币进一步升值，也限制了它的影响力。但政治层面的辩论可能截然不同。中美关系以往涉及美方对中方说教，数落中国的人民币汇率低估和金融市场封闭。现在，中美关系将涉及中国就美国的通胀风险和美元疲弱发出警告。对即将来临的借贷热潮感到担忧的美国财政保守派，有了一个想不到的新盟友：北京。 说话严厉的人去年成为副总理的王岐山负责中国的金融事务。他之前是一位银行家，并担任过北京市市长。王岐山措辞严厉、坦率，曾推行艰难的改革，还主持了去年的中美对话。但与多数高级领导人一样，他很少公开谈论中国的汇率政策。分析师表示，中国汇率和外汇储备政策的任何重大改变，都必须获得中国共产党政治局9名常委的批准。北京在美国巨额债务中的关键角色中国对美国国债的需求水平，可能在确定美国为其迅速增长的债务支付的利率方面发挥关键作用。在过去一年里，中国投资者——主要是中国央行——已成为持有美国国债最多的外国机构，去年持有比例增加15%，至将近7000亿美元。外国投资者目前大约持有3万亿美元的美国国债，即公开发行总额的一半多。今年中国是否继续以同样的步伐增持美国国债，可能是影响该市场前景的重要因素。相应地，中国需求水平取决于美国经济的健康程度。美国人购买的中国商品越少，中国手上能够投入美元资产的美元就越少。瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)策略师李振伟(Alex Li)表示：“中国已成为持有美国国债的重要操盘手，以至于中国是否继续投资美国国债，将决定收益变动方向。”不能想当然认为中国将一直购买美国国债。例如，去年11月，中国卖出了92亿美元的美国国债，是2008年6月以来第一个净卖出月份。去年12月（可获得数据的最近月份），中国再次购入美国国债——凸显出摇摆的可能性。中国官方仍然承诺购买美国国债。但最近在纽约举行的一次会议上，中国银监会高官罗平表达了与沙特和日本等国高官一样的矛盾心态。沙特和日本也是大量购买美国国债的国家。罗平表示：“美国国债是安全资产，是唯一选择，……一旦你们开始发行一万亿至两万亿美元的国债……我们知道美元会贬值，因此我们恨你们这些家伙，但我们没有办法。”尽管罗平是微笑着说这些话的，但中国银监会很快向外国媒体发表声明，称中国的政策没有改变。此外，分析师注意到，中国内部对如此巨大的财富投资到低收益率美元资产的做法，日益感到不满。克里斯?伍德(Chris Wood)在为里昂证券(CLSA)撰写的周度报告中表示：“在其寻求降低对出口导向型经济增长的依赖之际，这是个饱受非议的领域，（中国）将日益变得敏感。”“这可能是巨大的懦夫博弈(chicken game)。但不能想当然地认为，中国将永远愿意购买美国国债。”译者/何黎China's dollar dilemmaBy Geoff Dyer in Beijing 2009-02-24 选择字号: 大 中 小
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The flotation of Blackstone in June 2007 has already gone down as one of the symbolic events in America's financial bubble – the end-of-an-era deal when some of Wall Street's savviest insiders decided to cash out. Yet the listing of the private equity group could also be the turning point in another chapter of financial history; one that will shape the world that emerges from the current crisis: the moment when China really began to question its deep financial entanglement with the US.China Investment Corporation, the country's sovereign wealth fund, had not even begun formally operating when it spent $3bn on a 9.9 per cent stake in the private equity group. With Blackstone's shares down 84 per cent since flotation, CIC's new executives have become the target of furious attacks by bloggers who think China was conned. “They are worse than wartime traitors,” says one recent chat-room posting. “Blind worship of the US by so-called ‘experts',” complains another. China's near $2,000bn (￡1,380bn, €1,560bn) in reserves, the world's largest, are often viewed outside the country as a great strength – an insurance policy against economic turbulence. But within China, they are increasingly seen by the public and even some policymakers as something of an albatross – a huge pool of resources not being used at home that will plunge in value if the US dollar collapses. Why, people ask, should such a relatively poor country bankroll such a rich one?Even at the elite level, the sense of frustration occasionally bubbles over. “We hate you guys,” Luo Ping, a director-general at the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), complained last week on a visit to New York. “Once you start issuing $1-$2 trillion . . . we know the dollar is going to depreciate, so we hate you guys, but there is nothing much we can do.”As China's economy slows sharply, the debate on how to manage its reserves is intensifying. Some propose spending the money at home; others want more diversification of investments. But the consensus behind recycling foreign currency into US government securities is coming under attack.The discussion is hugely important for the Obama administration. At the very least, the Chinese government is likely to become much more forceful in trying to influence US economic policy. “There should be more give and take; some sort of guarantee that our interests will be defended,” says Yu Yongding, a leading economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Given the vital role that China has played in financing US deficits, Washington “should at least be a little nicer”, he says.The explosion in China's foreign exchange reserves has been one of the more remarkable episodes in recent financial history. The official total is $1,950bn, but Brad Setser, of the Council on Foreign Relations, a New York-based think-tank, who tracks China's foreign assets, puts the real figure at nearer $2,300bn – equivalent to more than $1,600 for every Chinese citizen.From that total, Mr Setser calculates that about $1,700bn is invested in dollar assets, making the Chinese government by far the largest creditor of the US. Last year, when its economy was under extreme stress, China lent the US more than $400bn – equivalent to more than 10 per cent of Chinese gross domestic product. “Day after day, China is the single biggest buyer of Treasury bonds in the market,” he wrote in a recent report. “Never before has the US relied so heavily on another country's government for financing.”Within China, a popular backlash against the scale of these investments in the US has been building for some time. Founded in 2007, CIC controls assets equivalent to only about 10 per cent of the total reserves, yet it has become a lightning rod for criticism. Not only has its Blackstone investment gone sour, but CIC also invested $5bn in Morgan Stanley before the bank's shares slumped. CIC also had money in Reserve Primary Fund, the US money market fund which froze redemptions after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.A European banker who has been advising CIC on its overseas strategy says: “This is a completely unique situation for Chinese bureaucrats to face – having their every decision debated, analysed and often attacked in the media and on the internet. I get the feeling that they are all shell-shocked.”Almost every week, a new proposal is launched to find a better way of investing the money. State media reported this week that a fund might be set up using reserves to back overseas investments by oil companies. Such ideas follow a flurry of recent natural-resources deals involving Chinese companies – most notably Chinalco's planned investment in Rio Tinto – although none of these deals has directly involved foreign exchange reserves.Another much-touted plan is for China's finance ministry to “borrow” dollar reserves from the central bank, which would be swapped into local currency and spent on social projects.Even the body that manages the bulk of the reserves, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (Safe), admitted last week that it was debating new approaches. “We will actively expand channels and ways to use the foreign exchange reserves. In particular, we will explore how the reserves can better serve domestic economic development,” said Deng Xianhong, deputy director of Safe.Yet officials recognise that there are still power- ful reasons for China to keep buying Treasury bonds. If the authorities want to maintain most of their vast holdings in liquid assets, there are few options that match the depth of the US government bond market. And if China did not want to accumulate so many reserves, it would have to let its currency strengthen – exactly what the government does not want at a time when exports are crumbling. China's leaders have made it clear that, in the short-term at least, they will keep supporting US markets. They want to be thought of as responsible global citizens during the crisis. They also know that a strong signal that China was backing away from dollar investments would damage the value of the enormous holdings it already has.“We believe that to maintain a stable international financial market is in the interests of shoring up market confidence . . . and facilitating early recovery of the international markets,” said Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, in a recent interview with the Financial Times, although he hinted at a shift in strategy when the crisis was over. As Arthur Kroeber, managing editor of the China Economic Quarterly, puts it: “China's default policy is to pursue stability at all costs. They do not want to rock the boat when things are unstable.”Yet if China has few options but to keep buying US Treasuries, it can still try to turn its investments into some sort of leverage. Think-tanks close to the government have been given the task of devising concessions that China can seek in recognition of its bigger role in international economic affairs. Zha Xiaogang, of the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, has published an “economic wish-list”, which includes a relaxation of US restrictions on exports of sophisticated technology to China. Chinese policymakers are also becoming increasingly critical of US financial policies. Last week's barbed comments from Mr Luo of CBRC were the most colourful indication of Chinese fears of a dollar crisis (see above right). But there have been other hints from senior leaders. “We hope the US side will . . . guarantee the safety of China's assets and investments in the US,” Wang Qishan, a vice-premier, told Hank Paulson when the former US Treasury secretary visited Beijing in December. Given public scepticism over the reserves, a tougher approach from Beijing would be well-received at home.One of the ideas being discussed in Beijing is pushing for the International Monetary Fund to have greater authority to issue critical judgments about the health of the US economy and its financial system. Officials also hope to use purchases of US debt as a diplomatic weapon against protectionist measures in the US.Arguably, China has already shown it can influence US decisions. One of the reasons the Bush administration was forced to recapitalise Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac last year, economists say, was because China had started to sell its bond holdings in the US agencies in favour of Treasuries. “China is beginning to behave like a normal creditor,” says Mr Setser.Ultimately, China's influence on US policy faces two big constraints. The dollar's status as the world's reserve currency gives the US huge flexibility that other countries with large deficits do not enjoy, much to the frustration of many Chinese officials. China's unwillingness to let its currency appreciate more also limits its leverage.But the political debate is likely to be very different. The Sino-US relationship used to involve lectures from Washington about China's undervalued currency and its closed financial markets. Now they will include Chinese warnings on the risks of inflation in the US and dollar weakness. Fiscal conservatives in the US, worried about the country's impending borrowing binge, have an unlikely new ally: Beijing.Tough talkerChina's point man for financial issues is Wang Qishan, a former banker and mayor of Beijing who became a vice-premier last year. Tough-talking and blunt, he has a record of pushing though difficult reforms and led a dialogue between China and the US last year.But like most senior leaders, he rarely talks publicly about the Chinese currency. Analysts say any significant shift in policy either on the exchange rate or on foreign reserves would have to be approved by the nine-member standing committee of the Communist party political bureau.Beijing's key role in the American debt mountain The level of Chinese demand for US Treasury paper could play a crucial role in determining the interest rates the US government has to pay for its rapidly growing debt pile.In the past year, Chinese investors – mainly its central bank – have become the biggest foreign holders of US Treasuries, increasing their holdings 15 per cent last year to nearly $700bn (€545bn, ￡485bn). Foreign investors now own about $3,000bn of US Treasuries, or more than half of the amount publicly available. Whether Chinese buying continues to increase this year at the same pace could be an important factor in the outlook for the Treasury market.In turn, the level of demand from China depends on the health of the US economy. The fewer Chinese goods Americans buy, the fewer dollars China will have to invest in dollar-denominated assets.“China has become such an important player in US Treasury holdings that it will be critical to the direction of yields whether new money continues to be invested by China in US government debt,” says Alex Li, a strategist at Credit Suisse.Chinese buying cannot be taken for granted. For example, in November, China sold $9.2bn of Treasury debt, the first month of net selling from the country since June 2008. By December, the last month for which data exist, China was a buyer again – highlighting the potential for swings.Officially, China remains committed to the US Treasury market. But at a recent conference in New York, Luo Ping, a senior official of the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), expressed an ambivalence that is shared by senior officials from Saudi Arabia to Japan, also big buyers. “US Treasuries are the safe haven; it is the only option,” said Mr Luo. “Once you start issuing $1-$2 trillion . . . we know the dollar is going to depreciate, so we hate you guys, but there is nothing much we can do.”Although these remarks were made with a smile, the CBRC quickly sent a note to the foreign press saying that China's policies remained unchanged.In addition, analysts are becoming conscious of growing opposition within China to the policy of investing so much wealth in low-yielding dollar assets. “This is an area of criticism [China] will increasingly be sensitive to as it seeks to reduce its reliance on export-led growth,” said Chris Wood in his weekly publication for CLSA, the regional brokerage. “It may all be a giant game of chicken. But it cannot be taken for granted that China will be willing to buy US paper for ever.”